What happens after 8 year battery warranty?

[Gino]

It’s in Porsche’s best interest for the batteries & their vehicles to last just like ICE vehicles that get handed down from generation to generation, becoming classics.
I can’t imagine Porsche engineers making such a gross miscalculation on the longevity of their EV products and their plan to electrify their entire product line.
Transitioning to a disposable vehicle after 8 years business model would be catastrophic for the brand even if they could make it economically viable for the company long term. Porsche would never be the same. I for one wouldn’t buy another EV from Porsche if the battery or other EV components became a liability to long term ownership. They obviously know this is what they are up against.
I have faith Porsche will come through…

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[f1eng]

If manufacturers do not solve this, I don’t see any future for the EV market.

It is currently an imagined "problem" which may or may not exist in reality.
Hard to solve a problem until it becomes real and analysed.

 

[Gino]

One thing that is not speculation is the cost of replacing a battery pack by Porsche at one of it’s dealers costing close to $60K after the parts & labor breakdown was put on this forum.
After 8 years these costs will be the responsibility of the vehicle owner rather than the dealer.
Porsche will have to get the a full battery replacement cost down by at least 50% to be in line with the cost to rebuild a Porsche ICE motor.
I’ve spoken with people at the NTHSB about their safety concerns for non OEM or DIY battery replacements which lead to fires due to improper procedures, untested repairs of battery modules and out of spec aging charging systems. I get the feeling from these people that regulations are coming to insure only certified battery repair/replacement facilities supported by the OEMs will be allowed.
One of their biggest fears is a DIY battery repaired vehicle gets sold to an unsuspecting buyer unaware the battery could rupture into a runaway fire in their garage, at the office garage, shopping center garage or an airport garage.
It would be very tempting to have an uncertified mechanic repair a battery for $10K instead of $60K from Porsche but I would really hate to park my car in my garage only to come back to a smoldering pile of ash where my garage was and serious damage to my home. Regulations are absolutely necessary. I’ve already talked with small independent auto repair shops looking to get into the business of battery repair & replacement since they already rebuild & replace ICE motors and batteries are fair game as far as they’re concerned. There is a huge profit motive for them.
Even Tesla charges $35K to replace the 5 battery modules in a model S out of warranty.
Remember, the Porsche warranty is 8 years or 100,000 miles whichever comes first. For any Taycan owner or the second hand owner that has over 100K miles on it, is on the hook for a potential full battery replacement. I’m sure there are a number of Taycan owners which will go over 100K in 5, 6 or 7 years and need a battery repair or replacement. I give it until 2026 when these stories begin to show up. We’ll see then what the actual cost to repair or replace these batteries and how Porsche responds to these original owners or the next owner. I’m certain Porsche sales will take this opportunity to take the vehicle back at a terrible trade-in value for a new or newer vehicle with a battery under warranty to kick the can down the road. Porsche will then repair the battery at their cost and sell the vehicle as some version of a CPO that covers the battery for another 8 years.
Expect “right to repair” laws to begin focusing on EVs and the safety regulations which will follow to insure EVs don’t become potential fire bombs in our communities.

 

[Bognar67]

Make it short: next to 60k batt rep costs any car over 100k/8y is a write off. This collapses the used car market that collapses the new car market as well, that results end of BEV transition.

So two ways:
- Transition to BEV fails.
- Batt rep costs should cut around half.

If my Taycan will be in this situation when the time comes, there is no Porsche dealer out who can convince me to buy any other BEV from them new or used.

 

[Gino]

Make it short: next to 60k batt rep costs any car over 100k/8y is a write off. This collapses the used car market that collapses the new car market as well, that results end of BEV transition.

So two ways:
- Transition to BEV fails.
- Batt rep costs should cut around half.

If my Taycan will be in this situation when the time comes, there is no Porsche dealer out who can convince me to buy any other BEV from them new or used.

I agree completely. The ball is in Porsche’s court. If a new battery pack with a fresh 8 year 100K warranty costs $25K to $30K max then I’m ok with that.
If it’s still $60K or even drops to $40K then it will be my last Porsche EV. I know Porsche doesn’t want this reality but only time will tell what they decide to do. If they make the wrong move it will cave in their EV business and harm their brand immensely.

 

[PSUEric]

Different scale but something to think about. When the Prius came out 20 or so years ago, it cost $4K. No one knew how long the batteries would last and estimates of battery replacement at that time were $4K. In other words, the car would be a write-off. Fast forward and many Prius’s running around on original batteries with 200,000 miles on them and replacement packs are $1500 to $3000.
As has been said, a solution that is economically reasonable will happen for BEV to be a success.

 

[Gino]

Different scale but something to think about. When the Prius came out 20 or so years ago, it cost $4K. No one knew how long the batteries would last and estimates of battery replacement at that time were $4K. In other words, the car would be a write-off. Fast forward and many Prius’s running around on original batteries with 200,000 miles on them and replacement packs are $1500 to $3000.
As has been said, a solution that is economically reasonable will happen for BEV to be a success.

All the economics around EVs will have to improve over time to make the investments by auto makers to electrify their vehicles not only a good investment but allows them to generate increasing profits over the long term. Driving the cost of batteries, motors & electronics will be the basis for their quest to reduce manufacturing costs but the efficiency of EVs will need to improve as well since electricity will go up as well in relation to fuel prices which will come down as fewer & fewer people buy ICE vehicles for everyday use in the coming decades. I can’t imagine any EV company not planning for this…. That’s why I’m comfortable with my Taycan purchase. If Porsche wants to sell me another EV they know I won’t if the economics don’t add up in the next 6-10 years as my Taycan goes out of warranty leaving me to fend for myself with the cost to service my vehicle being acceptable or not.

 

[Fish Fingers]

My 2p.
I think it's worth factoring in a couple of other points on this issue.....

1. Nearly all cars are mandated to move to zero emissions (EU/UK at least) in a relatively short time.
So it's an issue that affects the whole motor industry. Everyone who buys a car soon will need to be thinking about this. It will become a huge issue.

2. Ignoring battery issues, other major expense issues (say PCM failure) affects EV and ICE alike. All new cars are high tech.
So a PCM/air suspension/pano roof failure in say a Boxster/911 is no different than a Taycan. So that's a red herring.

3. Disrupters will move in (possibly Chinese) and move the market. Just like Tesla did, kickstarting the EV revolution.
If they were to include reasonable battery longevity options (the 4 R's...repair/replace/re-condition/recycle), it will force other traditional manufacturers to follow suit.

In summary, things will move forward and change.
There are big rewards for those who get it right (think repairers, insurers and warranty providers as well as manufacturers).

 

[Gino]

My 2p.
I think it's worth factoring in a couple of other points on this issue.....

1. Nearly all cars are mandated to move to zero emissions (EU/UK at least) in a relatively short time.
So it's an issue that affects the whole motor industry. Everyone who buys a car soon will need to be thinking about this. It will become a huge issue.

2. Ignoring battery issues, other major expense issues (say PCM failure) affects EV and ICE alike. All new cars are high tech.
So a PCM/air suspension/pano roof failure in say a Boxster/911 is no different than a Taycan. So that's a red herring.

3. Disrupters will move in (possibly Chinese) and move the market. Just like Tesla did, kickstarting the EV revolution.
If they were to include reasonable battery longevity options (the 4 R's...repair/replace/re-condition/recycle), it will force other traditional manufacturers to follow suit.

In summary, things will move forward and change.
There are big rewards for those who get it right (think repairers, insurers and warranty providers as well as manufacturers).

I agree completely. The companies that will have a place in the auto industry of the future will only do so if they solve the long term economics.
To not do so would be like driving off a cliff. Porsche has a long term plan just as many other auto manufacturers which gives me the confidence to be an early adopter with the patience to wait for the long term EV business model to mature and flourish. Until then I get to drive one of the most beautiful performance sedans on earth!

 

[Boss Hogg]

1. Nearly all cars are mandated to move to zero emissions (EU/UK at least) in a relatively short time.
So it's an issue that affects the whole motor industry. Everyone who buys a car soon will need to be thinking about this. It will become a huge issue.

This is a really key point, it is not a case if the new car market (here in the EU) will change to 100% EV by 2035, it is a case of how. The way Porsche and other traditional auto makers are approaching this mandated change will in turn have a big impact on their business models and long term future, just look at how far ahead the Chinese are (in terms of cost) with the EU having to bring in tariffs to protect the traditional manufacturers.

My 2p is that we are all early adopters with Porsche's first EV, so there will be a small number of difficult situations that cause great worry but I'm confident Porsche won't abandon their business model and will find ways to service/exchange/etc batteries for costs not dissimilar to their ICE cars, however it will take them time to build the experience/skill/parts. I also think they will offer a main battery warranty extension once they have enough real world information to assess the risk and price it. No owners have hit 8 years and only a small number will be over 100k right now so they can afford to manage these cases by offering good will on a case-by-case basis.

 

[Richard 4S]

The warranty for the battery is 8 years from Porsche. Nobody is out of warranty as of 2024. Has anyone established what happens in 2028 and beyond?
1 Can you extend it with Porsche?
2 How much cover is there in the warranty? It will be a succession of used car 2-year warranties.
3 Are there insurance companies who will insure an 8-year Taycan?

We have four years to investigate.

I was talking to one of the new aftermarket EV dealers. They say they check the batteries and replace any cells which are weak. They find they rarely replace more than 2 or 3. Early days still but it does not sound like a big problem

 

[Daniel]

To have a more optimistic thought, let's keep in mind that in some European countries (for example in France), the pollution tax of an ICE car with the same power as the less powerful Taycan, is 60,000 euros.... the price of a battery

 

[D00notD00d]

I also doubt about the "huge cost of labour" of a battery exchange comparing to rebuilding an ICE engine.
It is fixed with 20-30 screws and has a HW plug to un and reconnect + cooling connections.
Should significantly less hours than rebuild an ICE.
Time (labour) should be similar to take off and replace an engine, and the engine is still not touched.

Some manufacturers have battery exchange stations that swaps batteries in less than 10 minutes.

For full replacement cost, see:
https://www.taycanforum.com/underbo...s-need-inspection-11k-replacement-labor-cost/

Full replacement requires less labour than component repair.

 

[D00notD00d]

It’s in Porsche’s best interest for the batteries & their vehicles to last just like ICE vehicles that get handed down from generation to generation, becoming classics.
I can’t imagine Porsche engineers making such a gross miscalculation on the longevity of their EV products and their plan to electrify their entire product line.
Transitioning to a disposable vehicle after 8 years business model would be catastrophic for the brand even if they could make it economically viable for the company long term. Porsche would never be the same. I for one wouldn’t buy another EV from Porsche if the battery or other EV components became a liability to long term ownership. They obviously know this is what they are up against.
I have faith Porsche will come through…

I’d like to have faith. But Porsche has been selling E-Hybrids for a decade and has sold 140,000 Taycans since 2019. Despite (or maybe because of) that field evidence, and other test evidence, they’re saying they don’t plan to cover HV batteries once their warranty expires. Note the Approved Warranty only covers repairs up to the value of the car. All down to the evidence available to their actuaries.

 

[SteveDC]

Mmm, 50-70k on a new battery including labour is such a great deal… it’ll still remain an old car with big mileage. It’d be better to spend those money on cpo instead, which will be newer, with better tech, with less mileage.

In overall, that’s not going to work. It’ll be a waste, not a car… unless they really come up with a solution when changing a battery doesn’t cost you a fortune.

I assume your ballpark estimate of cost to replace includes installation cost as well as battery. There is a quote on here for a cost of about $27,000 for the battery alone, exclusive of labor and disposal of the old battery. That quote appears on this thread:

https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/t...cost-dealership-is-tom-wood-in-indiana.20407/

We are beginning to see reports that the batteries are holding up better than expected, so a 12 or more year life might not be out of the question. In such case, after the 8 year expiry, one would want some way to periodically check for health and physical damage, something
Iike a visit to the dentist, and just as pleasant. Gradual loss of range can be monitored by the driver.
As to cost to maintain classic vehicles in general, it’s an expensive game (depending on your net worth). In this respect, it’s something like the Presidency, “if you can’t stand the heat . . .” Right now, if I still have this vehicle 12 years from now, I could see what new vehicles are in the market and say goodbye, or maybe spend $40K or $50K, present value, to keep it running. It’s not impossible that the car might bottom out and begin to appreciate, ala 356.
Well, you can wish.

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