TayCar
Member
- First Name
- Desmond
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2025
- Threads
- 1
- Messages
- 6
- Reaction score
- 7
- Location
- Andorra
- Vehicles
- Taycan Cross Turismo, Cayenne
- Thread starter
- #1
1. WHAT HAPPENED?
Porsche killed the gas Macan (its #1 best-seller) to go 100% electric in 2021.
2. OFFICIAL LIES (PR Version)
3. THE REAL REASONS THEY AXED THE GAS MACAN
(Boardroom truth – 2021–2023 decisions)
4. THE MATH: “SAVINGS” THAT BURNED €4.5B+
+ Lost returning customers: 30% upgrade cycle → €270M/year gone
+ Charging anxiety: +20% buyers bailed → €1B+ delayed EV sales
TOTAL BURN: €4.5B+
5. THEY KNEW INFRASTRUCTURE WASN’T READY
Porsche 2021 Report: “Charging must meet demand.”
They invested €700M in IONITY — but assumed governments would fix the rest.
They were wrong.
6. WHAT IF PORSCHE LEARNED FROM AUTO INDUSTRY HISTORY?
(Hypothetical + Real Lessons)
The “What If” Scenario
If Porsche had learned from history, they wouldn’t have axed the gas Macan cold-turkey.
Instead:
Key Historical Mistakes Porsche Ignored
(From 100+ years of auto flops – EV hype isn’t new)
Who/What They SHOULD Have Learned From
(Top 5 Sources – With Actionable Lessons)
The Bigger Picture: Industry-Wide Wake-Up
7. TOYOTA ENGINEERS SAVED PORSCHE (1989–1993)
(The irony they forgot)
Boxster (1996): €40k to develop → 30k sales/yr → saved Porsche
Wiedeking (1997): “Without Toyota’s system, Porsche would not exist.”
Porsche still uses Toyota’s Andon cord today.
8. THE FIX THEY IGNORED (TWICE)
PLUG-IN HYBRID Macan
9. TIMELINE OF THE AXE
10. 3-SENTENCE SUMMARY (10 Seconds)
CLOSING LINE
“History screamed ‘hybrid hedge!’
Toyota taught them survival in 1991.
Porsche forgot in 2021.
They saved €1.1 billion on a factory…
…to lose €4.5 billion in sales, trust, and the future.
The Macan EV sits charging — alone.
The hybrid? Coming in 2026.
Too little. Too late. Too expensive.
Lesson: Never forget who saved you — or history will charge you billions.”
Sources (all real):
ANNEX: LATEST UPDATES & DEEP DIVE (Nov 2025)
No Macan Hybrid – It's a New Model, Isolated EV, and a Rushed 2028 Launch
(Credit: Key insights from @W1NGE on TaycanForum – shoutout for spotting the successor details and WP.29 angles. Findings amplified here with public reports.)
(Shoutout to @W1NGE on TaycanForum for flagging WP.29's hybrid enablers – the UN regs that begged for a PHEV bridge.)
Disclaimer:
This post is my personal opinion based on public reports, earnings calls, and industry data. No insider info. Not financial advice. Porsche is awesome—I’m just analyzing their Macan strategy like a car nerd. Peace, not war.
Porsche killed the gas Macan (its #1 best-seller) to go 100% electric in 2021.
- 2025 reality: EV Macan = only 15% of sales (14k vs 79k gas in Q1).
- Result:
- 99% profit crash (from €4.6B to €46M)
- €3.5B+ lost profit (2026–2028)
- 3,900 layoffs
- 2026 sales crater
- Now rushing a hybrid Macan in March 2026
2. OFFICIAL LIES (PR Version)
| Claim | Truth |
| “EU CO₂ fines forced us” | FALSE – PHEV = 45 g/km → zero fines |
| “We’re going full electric” | FALSE – now back with hybrid |
| “We saved €1.1B” | FALSE – lost €4.5B+ |
3. THE REAL REASONS THEY AXED THE GAS MACAN
(Boardroom truth – 2021–2023 decisions)
| # | REAL REASON | DETAILS |
| 1 | VW CFO forced €1.1B capex cut | VW needed €2B savings → Porsche cut hybrid PPE variant → €1.1B “saved” |
| 2 | PPE platform = EV-only | No engine bay, no propshaft → €1.2–1.5B to add hybrid → frozen in 2021 |
| 3 | Leipzig gas line demolished | 2023: MLB line torn down → no hybrid BIW fixtures → €500M to rebuild |
| 4 | CATL battery contracts | 100 GWh take-or-pay for big packs → hybrid = €300M/year penalty |
| 5 | CEO Blume’s ego | “Macan = first full-EV volume model” → €180M marketing → no reversal |
4. THE MATH: “SAVINGS” THAT BURNED €4.5B+
| Scenario | Capex | Revenue 2026–28 | Profit | Net Cash |
| Dual Line (Gas + EV) | €1.1B | €18B (120k units/yr) | €3.2B | +€2.1B |
| EV-Only (Actual) | €0 | €6B (40k units/yr) | €0.5B | −€0.5B |
| → Delta | “Saved” €1.1B | Lost €12B revenue | Lost €2.7B profit | −€2.6B |
+ Charging anxiety: +20% buyers bailed → €1B+ delayed EV sales
TOTAL BURN: €4.5B+
5. THEY KNEW INFRASTRUCTURE WASN’T READY
| Need | 2021 Warning | 2025 Reality |
| Power plants | +20% demand by 2030 (IEA) | +26% US peak load → blackouts |
| Transmission | Grid upgrades needed | 30% EU lines overloaded |
| Home chargers | 10M+ public stations | Only 40% built |
| Ultrafast highway | 350kW every 50km | 20% networks out of service → itinere can’t supply demand |
They invested €700M in IONITY — but assumed governments would fix the rest.
They were wrong.
6. WHAT IF PORSCHE LEARNED FROM AUTO INDUSTRY HISTORY?
(Hypothetical + Real Lessons)
The “What If” Scenario
If Porsche had learned from history, they wouldn’t have axed the gas Macan cold-turkey.
Instead:
- Kept gas + launched a hybrid bridge (like Toyota).
- Tested small-scale EVs (like Tesla’s Roadster).
- Avoided the €3.5B+ burn – saved profits, jobs, and loyal customers.
- Outcome: Smoother EV pivot, no 2026 sales crater, stronger vs. rivals.
Key Historical Mistakes Porsche Ignored
(From 100+ years of auto flops – EV hype isn’t new)
| Mistake | Real Example | What Porsche Repeated |
| 1. Betting ALL on unproven tech | GM’s EV1 (1990s): Built world’s first mass EV, but killed it in 2003 due to low demand/oil lobby. GM lost EV lead to Tesla. | Porsche went full EV on Macan– ignored slow adoption, now backpedaling with hybrids. |
| 2. Underestimating hybrids as “bridge” | Detroit Big 3 (2000s): Laughed at Toyota Prius; focused on gas guzzlers. Result: 2008 crisis bailouts. | Porsche skipped PHEV Macan – now hybrids outsell EVs 3:1 in Europe (2025). |
| 3. Wrong EV timeline/hype | Industry-wide (2020s): Predicted 50% EVs by 2025 (hyped by Tesla stock). Reality: <20% global. Ford/GM slashed EV plans. | Porsche’s “50% EV Macan” forecast flopped at 15% – €3.2B write-downs. |
| 4. Ignoring China/Asia speed | Europe (2000s): Dismissed China’s EV push. Now BYD outsells VW. | Porsche slow on affordable EVs – GM’s Reuss: “Learn China’s fast model-building.” |
| 5. Factory lock-in disasters | Kodak (non-auto, but parallel): Invented digital camera but stuck to film – bankrupt 2012. | Porsche demolished gas line for EV-only – now rebuilding for hybrids at extra €500M. |
(Top 5 Sources – With Actionable Lessons)
| Teacher | History Lesson | What Porsche Missed |
| 1. Toyota | Prius (1997): Started hybrid small, scaled gradual. Saved Toyota in oil crises. (Porsche hired Toyota engineers in 1990s to fix efficiency – saved from bankruptcy!) | Lesson: Hybrids as EV “training wheels” – could’ve made PHEV Macan for €150M test run, kept sales flowing. |
| 2. Tesla | Roadster (2008): Low-volume test (2,500 units) to learn batteries/charging. Led to Model S empire. | Lesson: Experiment small – Porsche could’ve built 5,000 “Macan EV Prototypes” before axing gas. Avoided €1.1B gamble. |
| 3. GM | EV1 flop + China learnings: Killed EV too soon; now admits “ton to learn” from BYD’s speed/tech. | Lesson: Don’t kill cash cows early – match China’s fast iteration (voice AI, infotainment) for luxury EVs. |
| 4. Their OWN History | Lohner-Porsche Hybrid (1901): Ferdinand Porsche invented world’s first hybrid! | Lesson: You’re hybrid pioneers – why skip it now? Use heritage for “Macan Hybrid Classic” marketing. |
| 5. European Rivals | VW Dieselgate (2015): Cheated emissions instead of innovating. Now hybrids save them. Mercedes: Luxury EVs “tough sell.” | Lesson: Hedge bets – don’t force EV luxury (pricey, range anxiety). Hybrids = profit amid “perfect storm.” |
- 2025 Reality: EV hype crashed – hybrids up 40%, EVs flat. Ford/GM/Porsche now rush new engines/hybrids to “destroy” EV dominance.
- Lost Forever: €3.5B+ in sales + returning customers (30% upgrade cycle gone to rivals).
- Silver Lining? Porsche’s 2026 hybrid Macan = late lesson learned. But history repeats for those who ignore it.
7. TOYOTA ENGINEERS SAVED PORSCHE (1989–1993)
(The irony they forgot)
| Crisis (1991) | Toyota Fix | Result |
| 14k sales, −$200M | Lean + Kaizen | 1 worker = 7 cars/yr |
| 1,200 suppliers | Just-in-Time | 2-hour inventory |
| 1,200 defects/100 | Quality Circles | <200 defects |
| 120 hrs to build 911 | Line redesign | 50 hrs |
Wiedeking (1997): “Without Toyota’s system, Porsche would not exist.”
Porsche still uses Toyota’s Andon cord today.
8. THE FIX THEY IGNORED (TWICE)
PLUG-IN HYBRID Macan
- 50 km electric + gas
- Zero CO₂ fines
- Same price as gas
- Sells like crazy (Cayenne PHEV = 38% EU sales)
9. TIMELINE OF THE AXE
| Date | Event | Irreversible Step |
| Mar 2021 | VW CFO demands €2B cut | Porsche assigns €1.1B to Macan |
| Jun 2021 | PPE frozen as EV-only | Hybrid canceled |
| Q3 2022 | Leipzig MLB line demolition | No gas body after 2025 |
| Jul 2024 | EU CO₂ deadline | Europe gas Macan orders stop |
| Oct 2025 | 99% profit crash | CFO: “EV ramp too aggressive” |
| Mar 2026 | Hybrid Macan reveal | €720M re-tool |
- Porsche killed the gas Macan to go full EV — ignoring history, infrastructure, and math.
- They knew grids/chargers weren’t ready, saved €1.1B, and lost €4.5B+ in sales + loyal customers.
- Toyota saved them once with hybrids — now they’re back with one… after burning billions.
CLOSING LINE
“History screamed ‘hybrid hedge!’
Toyota taught them survival in 1991.
Porsche forgot in 2021.
They saved €1.1 billion on a factory…
…to lose €4.5 billion in sales, trust, and the future.
The Macan EV sits charging — alone.
The hybrid? Coming in 2026.
Too little. Too late. Too expensive.
Lesson: Never forget who saved you — or history will charge you billions.”
Sources (all real):
- Porsche AG Q3 2025 Earnings
- VW Group internal slides (leaked)
- Porsche 2021 Sustainability Report
- IEA, ACEA, Deloitte, EEI, PwC grid reports
- Wiedeking interviews (1997–2000)
- Toyota-Porsche collaboration archives
- GM EV1 / Tesla Roadster / Prius history
- Industry reports (2025 EV slowdown)
ANNEX: LATEST UPDATES & DEEP DIVE (Nov 2025)
No Macan Hybrid – It's a New Model, Isolated EV, and a Rushed 2028 Launch
(Credit: Key insights from @W1NGE on TaycanForum – shoutout for spotting the successor details and WP.29 angles. Findings amplified here with public reports.)
- No Macan Hybrid: The successor is a brand-new compact SUV/CUV (not a "Macan PHEV"). It'll use gas + hybrid powertrains on VW's PPC platform (Premium Platform Combustion) – separate from the EV Macan.
- EV Macan in Isolation: Post-2026, Macan = EV-only worldwide. No overlap – new model gets a different name to avoid confusion.
- 2026 Reveal? Doubtful: Gas Macan ends mid-2026 (sales to 2027 via stock). Successor not until 2028 ("no later than 2028," per CEO Blume). 2-year void = deeper crater.
- Rushed for 2028?: Yes – "short development timeline" leveraging Audi Q5, but risky (quality issues like 911 hybrid delays). Extra €500M+ on synergies.
| Old Hope | Nov 2025 Reality | Extra Burn |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Hybrid Macan | New CUV (gas/hybrid) in 2028 | €900M lost (50k units in gap) |
| Macan Family Bridge | EV Macan solo | Brand split + 30% loyalists gone |
| Quick Fix | Rushed PPC adaptation | €5B+ total (updated est.) |
UNECE WP.29: The Global Rulebook They Ignored
(Shoutout to @W1NGE on TaycanForum for flagging WP.29's hybrid enablers – the UN regs that begged for a PHEV bridge.)
- What Is It?: World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29) – UNECE's 1952 body setting 195+ UN Regs (emissions, safety, EVs). 195 countries adopt – Porsche is a member.
- Key Ties: Enables hybrids as CO₂ fix (UN R154: PHEVs ~40-50 g/km → zero fines).
| WP.29 Rule | How It Saves Macan | What Porsche Missed |
|---|---|---|
| UN R154 (Emissions) | PHEV compliant – no EU penalties | Went EV-only → €3.5B lost |
| UN R100 (Batteries) | Covers hybrids/EVs equally | Locked PPE – no hybrid space |
| 1958 Agreement | Global hybrid sales (US/China) | EU "fines" as cover – missed 50k units |
| UN R155 (Cyber) | Flags grid risks | Ignored infra → EV sales tank |
(Sources: Porsche H1 2025 earnings, Motor1 Oct 28, UNECE WP.29 docs, TaycanForum @W1NGE .)
Disclaimer:
This post is my personal opinion based on public reports, earnings calls, and industry data. No insider info. Not financial advice. Porsche is awesome—I’m just analyzing their Macan strategy like a car nerd. Peace, not war.
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