[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[jk981]

The Taycan was far too expensive when it first came to market. Now it is just in the stratosphere. Another price hike is so short sighted. They cant move them now with large discounts how is a price hike going to help anything.

yeah I’m waiting to see how bad the hike will be. Hopefully won’t be priced out of new. I’m still half expecting the model to be canceled to consolidate efforts in SUV sales

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[tigerbalm]

I’m still half expecting the model to be canceled to consolidate efforts in SUV sales

They'll sweat the Taycan platform for as long as they can – its later in its production cycle where the unit profits tend to be. I think a lot of its future will depend on how the Audi-derived (and therefore cheaper R&D costs) Panamera EV does and if it cannibalises Taycan sales.

The Taycan platform isn't being expanded into the Panamera nor shrunk down for the 718 EV. Today, it's looking a little like a one off.

Despite its "IPO" – Porsche's future has never been more tied to VW then the next five years will bring.

 

[Scandinavian]

They'll sweat the Taycan platform for as long as they can – its later in its production cycle where the unit profits tend to be. I think a lot of its future will depend on how the Audi-derived (and therefore cheaper R&D costs) Panamera EV does and if it cannibalises Taycan sales.

The Taycan platform isn't being expanded into the Panamera nor shrunk down for the 718 EV. Today, it's looking a little like a one off.

Despite its "IPO" – Porsche's future has never been more tied to VW then the next five years will bring.

I wonder how many ””platforms”” Porsche now has for its EV lineup.
Taycan has 2 of them J1.1 and J1.2
Macan is that another one
Cayenne EV another one ??
Rumoured 718 EV which one??

They have difficulties maintaining a singel at times, so things do look very bleak for us early adopters of J1.1!

 

[chun]

I wonder how many ””platforms”” Porsche now has for its EV lineup.
Taycan has 2 of them J1.1 and J1.2
Macan is that another one
Cayenne EV another one ??
Rumoured 718 EV which one??

They have difficulties maintaining a singel at times, so things do look very blek for us early adopters of J1.1!

Macan and Cayenne are on audi platform, PPE.
Porsche has only 1 EV platform, the J1 performance platform.

The 718 is expected to be on a new platform or spin-off of PPE, if it ever sees the light of day. The big challenge is the battery cooling, since they want it in a mono block behind the chairs, central to the car - to give it a mid engine feel.

The SC01 ( 2door sport ev, 1365kg and 429hp ) is the only other EV that has a similar platform, with battery mono-block behind chairs in the middle of the car, with investment from Xiaomi. The 60kwh NMC battery enclosure & cooling being provided by CALB (part of the chinese military industry).

Would expect the 718 EV would go for similar numbers, due to battery weight becoming too big otherwise and range too small with more HP - unless they delay beyond 2030 for solid state batteries.

 

[D00notD00d]

Despite its "IPO" – Porsche's future has never been more tied to VW then the next five years will bring.

The Porsche AG IPO was just a money generating exercise for the Porsche-Pieche family. Porsche AG is still 75% owned by VW AG …. and the family still majority owns VW. Hence part-sharing (& profiteering) across the group’s brands.

 

[tigerbalm]

The Porsche AG IPO was just a money generating exercise for the Porsche-Pieche family. Porsche AG is still 75% owned by VW AG …. and the family still majority owns VW. Hence part-sharing (& profiteering) across the group’s brands.

And 4.99% of the "public" shares on offer went directly to Qatar.

 

[Scandinavian]

Macan and Cayenne are on audi platform, PPE.
Porsche has only 1 EV platform, the J1 performance platform.

ok PPE for Macan and Cayenne

But surely there are two OS for the J1 .x Taycan. Different battery, charging, UI etc.

 

[chun]

ok PPE for Macan and Cayenne

But surely there are two OS for the J1 .x Taycan. Different battery, charging, UI etc.

No, j1.1 and j1.2 are both running PCM6.

And at least my dealer in here Switzerland, one of the 3 big ones, was putting the exact same part number in both MY25 and MY20 when replacing the PCM part.

Proof of that is that first batch of MY25 j1.2 taycan shipped with PCM version 3882, and their software was updated to 4360 - there is a service campaign for it public (couple of thousands of cars in USA). The process required all ECUs to be updated to latest version, which alone takes 6h+
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2025/MC-11015189-0001.pdf
(now it's 44xx something for MY25 after OTA small update, similar to 3882 to 3885, but for 4360 to 44xx)

MY26 shipped with PCM 4578, which has support for Dolby and supposedly a new dolby chip.

Macan and Cayenne EV are running completely different hardware & software stack, based on android. So not "PCM" anymore.

The fact of the matter is that porsche does not want to pay for the service hours required to update "the fleet" to 4360/44xx. They aren't even willing to update MY25 from 44xx to 4578, because it is again, service hours to be paid - not OTA.

 

[daveo4EV]

the one argument against continuing the Taycan is opportunity cost and factory location…

Taycan may lose out to increasing 911 production - as the two factories are quite close to each other…

someone has already crunche the numbers and knows if there is more money to be made using the factory production resources to produce 911's instead of Taycan's…

Porsche is hurting for revenue/profits and the 911 is the gold standard for both of those…may be beneficial to walk away from Taycan and shift the factory square-footage over to 911 production…

 

[chun]

the one argument against continuing the Taycan is opportunity cost and factory location…

Taycan may lose out to increasing 911 production - as the two factories are quite close to each other…

someone has already crunche the numbers and knows if there is more money to be made using the factory production resources to produce 911's instead of Taycan's…

Porsche is hurting for revenue/profits and the 911 is the gold standard for both of those…may be beneficial to walk away from Taycan and shift the factory square-footage over to 911 production…

The 911 was the gold standard for both cases.

But Covid buying frenezy is over, and 911s do deprecate now.

Will they really sell that many more, to compensate for the taycan? Would you bet money on it? Or better yet, would you invest in a Porsche doing that?

Hardly changed design since 2014, and while eTurbos are great for performance, people buying a 911 still prefer naturally aspirated if they can get their hands on it - naturally aspirated where there's even less changed. Why would they buy brand new and not CPO?

Despite what Porsche says, and I posted about it in another thread, EVs are selling very well, in EU, NA, China and the whole world - while the ICE market is steadily in decline.
https://www.automobile-propre.com/a...ectriques-la-renault-5-explose-les-compteurs/

 

[D00notD00d]

And 4.99% of the "public" shares on offer went directly to Qatar.

Quatar also owns 17% of VW AG.
And VW AG 75% of Porsche AG, increasing the Quatar stake.
Kind of comforting that even those guys get investment decisions wrong - as I did with my leap of faith buying Porsche AG.

 

[tigerbalm]

the one argument against continuing the Taycan is opportunity cost and factory location…

Taycan may lose out to increasing 911 production - as the two factories are quite close to each other…

Just back from the factory last weekend. The Taycan is down to hardly one shift (I've heard rumours its 4 days a week; but unsure how true) but interestingly the 911 factory is down from three shifts (24 hour production) to two shifts. Most likely because the 718 petrol cars are no longer going down the 911 line to make way for the (as yet) non existent 718 EV. So even though 911 production is going gang busters – the existing factory has excess capacity until the 718 EV turns up.

The 911 factory was upgraded in 2023 to handle hybrid 911s and fully electric 718. The production process in the Taycan factory – is quiet different – with flexible assembly lines (all cars on robots) as opposed to the relatively static line of the 911 facility.

The Taycan factory is definitely more flexible but there would be lots of changes needed for it to build 911s. Even things as simple as air (older 911 building) vs electric (newer Taycan building) compressor tooling. Not impossible but not a trivial decision either.

I suspect they'll do whatever though – to try and keep two door car production in Zuffenhausen and the move of the 718 out to a VW plant was defo seen as something temporary to make way for 911 factory upgrades.

 

[Tooney]

Quatar also owns 17% of VW AG.
And VW AG 75% of Porsche AG, increasing the Quatar stake.
Kind of comforting that even those guys get investment decisions wrong - as I did with my leap of faith buying Porsche AG.

If Porsche AG was a good buy when you first bought it, it is even better buy now that price is lower.

 

[bn8959]

I was in my local OPC today (UK), interestingly not a single Taycan in the showroom, nor any sat outside in the display lineup. In their main front car park where they hold the sales stock, only 3 hidden way at the back. It was like they didnt want the Taycan to exist! Was sad. It was mostly 911's with one 718 and one Cayenne - no Panameras come to think of it either.

 

[D00notD00d]

I was in my local OPC today (UK), interestingly not a single Taycan in the showroom, nor any sat outside in the display lineup. In their main front car park where they hold the sales stock, only 3 hidden way at the back. It was like they didnt want the Taycan to exist! Was sad. It was mostly 911's with one 718 and one Cayenne - no Panameras come to think of it either.

Intriguing. Looking at Porsche.Co.Uk*, there are
- 65 new Taycans
- 381 used Taycans (previously I've counted 500+)
- 72 new 911s
- 598 used 911s, 82 of which are 991 or earlier. As 911 predates Taycan, and has a higher turnover, you'd expect to find more 911s available.

As well as new stock held at dealers, there'll be a bunch of new cars sat on Porsche GB land.

My local salesman recently told me that they sell more Taycans than any other model. Maybe it differs by area. Maybe yours has just sold all of their Taycans.
Because of reduced demand, margins and residuals, I suspect dealers won't currently hold much new stock, but are usually required by Porsche to have demo stock. Maybe all of their demos were out.

*Slow night!

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