Too many Taycans for sale??

[WuffvonTrips]

After reading this post, I figured I'd take a look at used examples on the market too... And I just bagged one (foregoing my allocation with delivery est July)...

Originally had a RWD on order and with options came to approx. £85k, but seen a 2020 4S with 8k on the clock and pretty much every option ticked for around the same!

Tell me I didn't do the wrong thing by going for the 4S please...??

I don't know how good a price that is, but I definitely think the 4S is the pick of the Taycan range and a well-spec'd used one is potentially best VFM.

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[briomir]

I don't know how good a price that is, but I definitely think the 4S is the pick of the Taycan range and a well-spec'd used one is potentially best VFM.

Thanks - yeah, I thought the 4S would be pick of the bunch but was initially worried because it was an MY20. My frugality got the better of me though - £86k now, but a new one with same spec would be £110k!

 

[whitex]

Thanks - yeah, I thought the 4S would be pick of the bunch but was initially worried because it was an MY20. My frugality got the better of me though - £86k now, but a new one with same spec would be £110k!

I don't know the market in the UK well, but it sounds like a reasonable deal for USA. I you are enjoying the car, I would suggest to stop tracking its value or other available deals. You got a car you enjoy, whether next month a comparable car sells for £10K more or £10K less, it does not matter, enjoy your car! Taycans are amazing to drive (even if somewhat frustrating to use their software)! I always do my research, find the right deal, then once deal is done, I do not worry about "could have beens" anymore.

 

[briomir]

I don't know the market in the UK well, but it sounds like a reasonable deal for USA. I you are enjoying the car, I would suggest to stop tracking its value or other available deals. You got a car you enjoy, whether next month a comparable car sells for £10K more or £10K less, it does not matter, enjoy your car! Taycans are amazing to drive (even if somewhat frustrating to use their software)! I always do my research, find the right deal, then once deal is done, I do not worry about "could have beens" anymore.

Yes, very wise words indeed - and I am planning to enjoy it all the way through!

 

[BigBob]

Article in the FT this morning - Short version is expectation for 1 year depreciation on a Tesla to be -46%. Example was a new Model 3 long range - £57k to £31k January to January.

Ouch.

 

[whitex]

Article in the FT this morning - Short version is expectation for 1 year depreciation on a Tesla to be -46%. Example was a new Model 3 long range - £57k to £31k January to January.

Ouch.

These articles tend to provide extreme examples. Try to find a one year old M3LR for £31k, see how many you find in your area and what shape/mileage they have. I was recently selling my old Tesla, and I was able to find articles telling me how the used car values are going up again due to supply chain shortages, and that they are nosediving - you can find anything you want on the internet nowadays, the trick is to know how to validate the data. The proof is in the pudding - what price can you actually get (to sell or to buy).

 

[BigBob]

These articles tend to provide extreme examples. Try to find a one year old M3LR for £31k, see how many you find in your area and what shape/mileage they have. I was recently selling my old Tesla, and I was able to find articles telling me how the used car values are going up again due to supply chain shortages, and that they are nosediving - you can find anything you want on the internet nowadays, the trick is to know how to validate the data. The proof is in the pudding - what price can you actually get (to sell or to buy).

I don't want one though, nor was i looking for it on the internet. Pretty much the front page of the (online) FT aka not a dodgy YouTube influencer.

As you say, i'm sure the journalist has probably chosen his dates carefully either side of the price cut, nor would i expect to be able to find a 1yr model for exactly £31,300. But i think it does paint a fairly clear picture about which way depreciation rates are heading across the board and that Tesla is getting it the worse.

Not sure if you read the article, but it also notes one of Teslas biggest problem (for residual values anyway) is they don't have a waiting list, hence their big underperformance vs comparable car manufacturers (not necessarily EV). The other interesting point it makes is the paucity of Tesla's own second hand dealerships - again causing the second hand market for them trade 'too cheap',

Finally, it notes that financing/leasing rates for Tesla's is increasing more than other brands as a consequence of the larger loss in residual value.

Anyway, thought it was relevant given the discussion about both the resumption (normalisation) of depreciation for porsches and it not actually being too bad. Also that the increasing leasing rates for Taycans going up is also in part due to the increase in depreciation, which is something I'd never thought about.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting!

Don't own a tesla and never had. Do own the stock so i'd like the company to do well!

 

[whitex]

I don't want one though, nor was i looking for it on the internet. Pretty much the front page of the (online) FT aka not a dodgy YouTube influencer.

As you say, i'm sure the journalist has probably chosen his dates carefully either side of the price cut, nor would i expect to be able to find a 1yr model for exactly £31,300. But i think it does paint a fairly clear picture about which way depreciation rates are heading across the board and that Tesla is getting it the worse.

Not sure if you read the article, but it also notes one of Teslas biggest problem (for residual values anyway) is they don't have a waiting list, hence their big underperformance vs comparable car manufacturers (not necessarily EV). The other interesting point it makes is the paucity of Tesla's own second hand dealerships - again causing the second hand market for them trade 'too cheap',

Finally, it notes that financing/leasing rates for Tesla's is increasing more than other brands as a consequence of the larger loss in residual value.

Anyway, thought it was relevant given the discussion about both the resumption (normalisation) of depreciation for porsches and it not actually being too bad. Also that the increasing leasing rates for Taycans going up is also in part due to the increase in depreciation, which is something I'd never thought about.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting!

Don't own a tesla and never had. Do own the stock so i'd like the company to do well!

I saw a similar article for the US market. Yes Tesla doesn't have a waiting list, but that's because they keep on ramping their production. My parents were waiting for an ID.4 in Canada, when Tesla cut their Model Y prices in January, they were told 18 more months on the waitlist for the ID.4, so they cancelled the the order and picked up a model Y less than a month later. Does that mean VW ID.4 residuals will be higher? Maybe, but I am not so sure. Certainly, if VW announced they are only making a limited production of the ID.4, say 100 a month limit worldwide, that might help their residual values, but it would be poor business.

Financing rates have nothing to do with residuals, neither do leasing rates (as in, interest rates). The leasing payment will go up if residual goes down, but again, the article you read seems to be mixing concepts. Residuals have dropped recently for all cars by the way, some manufacturers are subsidizing, but try leasing a used car where the manufacturer has no incentive to subsidize.

Yes Teslas may have depreciated faster than some brands which were unable to produce more than a few cars during the pandemic, and yes, Tesla cutting prices hurt the depreciation of some of the Teslas which were bought after the pandemic price increases, but that's normal in the car business. People who paid $30K extra for a Taycan a year ago are also likely fairly upside down on their purchase right now, especially in the UK market - it doesn't mean that Taycans are depreciating horribly.

Prior to the pandemic, most cars drop about 35%-55% in the first 3 years, with most of it lost when you drove off the dealer's lot. Overall Teslas have actually held up pretty good.

 

[BigBob]

Financing rates have nothing to do with residuals, neither do leasing rates (as in, interest rates). The leasing payment will go up if residual goes down, but again, the article you read seems to be mixing concepts.

The article refers to 'cost of financing' rather than interest rate, so I may well be putting words into the journalists mouth. As well as leasing it references 'personal contract purchases' as the main way cars are financed in the UK'. I've never used finance on a car, so not entirely sure how it works. But ultimately, if the cost of financing goes up over a particular period, then call it what you like - but increased total payments=increased interest rates.

Residuals have dropped recently for all cars by the way, some manufacturers are subsidizing, but try leasing a used car where the manufacturer has no incentive to subsidize.

Yep, the only point the article is making is residues for teslas are falling my more than other cars, not that other cars are holding their value.

Anyway, didn't mean to upset you as I see you own a Tesla... Please keep buying them. Me and Elon need the stock higher!

 

[whitex]

The article refers to 'cost of financing' rather than interest rate, so I may well be putting words into the journalists mouth. As well as leasing it references 'personal contract purchases' as the main way cars are financed in the UK'. I've never used finance on a car, so not entirely sure how it works. But ultimately, if the cost of financing goes up over a particular period, then call it what you like - but increased total payments=increased interest rates.



Yep, the only point the article is making is residues for teslas are falling my more than other cars, not that other cars are holding their value.

Anyway, didn't mean to upset you as I see you own a Tesla... Please keep buying them. Me and Elon need the stock higher!

No worries. I am not upset by any means. I never take offense as a rule, since it's a losing proposition. If the offense is not intended, then you get offended for no reason. If the offense is intended, then you play into the hand of the person offending you, as that was their intent. So, the only winning move is to never take offense.

I was just mentioning that I've seen articles like this, which cherry-pick their data to "prove" wild theories, the more sensational, the more views the article gets. In today's times, if you look hard enough, you can find an article on the internet to tell you anything you want to hear, even that the Earth is flat, and all pictures from space are just staged lies.

PS> Sorry for you and Elon, after 4 Model S, I don't foresee more Teslas purchases from me, at least as things stand right now. The thing which helped push me over the edge was the introduction of the yoke (the rounded version available today is even more horrible). I just sold one of the Tesla's, one more left, will probably keep it for a couple of years as it's still a reliable car and already took most of its depreciation. For what it's worth, I sold an 8 year old Tesla a couple of weeks ago to a dealer for ~34% of its sticker price, cash deal (not a trade).

 

[BigBob]

No worries. I am not upset by any means. I never take offense as a rule, since it's a losing proposition. If the offense is not intended, then you get offended for no reason. If the offense is intended, then you play into the hand of the person offending you, as that was their intent. So, the only winning move is to never take offense.

I was just mentioning that I've seen articles like this, which cherry-pick their data to "prove" wild theories, the more sensational, the more views the article gets. In today's times, if you look hard enough, you can find an article on the internet to tell you anything you want to hear, even that the Earth is flat, and all pictures from space are just staged lies.

PS> Sorry for you and Elon, after 4 Model S, I don't foresee more Teslas purchases from me, at least as things stand right now. The thing which helped push me over the edge was the introduction of the yoke (the rounded version available today is even more horrible). I just sold one of the Tesla's, one more left, will probably keep it for a couple of years as it's still a reliable car and already took most of its depreciation. For what it's worth, I sold an 8 year old Tesla a couple of weeks ago to a dealer for ~34% of its sticker price, cash deal (not a trade).

No need to apologise. I took some profit before he did . That said, I'm still a few quite behind him!!

 

[Rob********]

High depreciation right now is probably to be expected. Used prices shot up, and when things spike up, they spike down - probably to a lower level than where they will eventually settle. All compounded by a spike in mortgage and utility rates (UK) and likely that people are looking at the impending increase in mortgage payments and thinking, that car on the drive has to go. In 2-3 years, things will settle down - mortgage rates are already reducing, as are utility rates, and in a few years inflation will have settled.

FWIW - I looked at used Taycan's the other day, and an extremely small number had rear wheel steer and they were expensive still. The general rule has to be pick your options carefully and don't build a car too bespoke if you are going to use any form of purchase arrangement.

For me the UK limited company car incentives are too good an opportunity to pass up. Never before thought I would get into something like this, so its a once in a life time shot before UK company car tax BIK rates on EV's shoots up (currently 2% with an equivalent ICE at 37% - the Government will need to replace that loss). If my limited company takes a hit when I sell the car, I'm viewing it that the cost to me is 50% of whatever the depreciation is. So if I buy the car for £110k, and sell it after 4 years or so for £60k, that depreciation only affects me personally by £25k. Not too bad.

 

[TaycanHero]

I will leave again my comment from about a month ago, on a different thread, about a similar thing:

2022 was the year when used prices went above average.

2023 is when used prices will go below average.

2024 is when used prices will normalise.

If you sold your Taycan in 2022, you were lucky.

If you must sell your Taycan in 2023, you will probably be unlucky (and disappointed).

If you sell your Taycan in 2024, you'll accept the standard 10% pa depreciation has returned.

For those on a two year ownership cycle, leasing was the best option in 2021.

2022 cash was the best option.

2023 waiting is the best option.

2024 cash or lease, depends on interest rates. Probably the former.

 

[W1NGE]

After reading this post, I figured I'd take a look at used examples on the market too... And I just bagged one (foregoing my allocation with delivery est July)...

Originally had a RWD on order and with options came to approx. £85k, but seen a 2020 4S with 8k on the clock and pretty much every option ticked for around the same!

Tell me I didn't do the wrong thing by going for the 4S please...??

4S is normally the pick of the bunch until the GTS surfaces (which it has) and then the game changes - less GTS models to go around.

Good price but MY20 (if that's what your car is) has some limitations which the uPdate (major software upgrade of last year) could not address. Nothing too major - wireless Android (I think) and one or two other things.

 

[briomir]

4S is normally the pick of the bunch until the GTS surfaces (which it has) and then the game changes - less GTS models to go around.

Good price but MY20 (if that's what your car is) has some limitations which the uPdate (major software upgrade of last year) could not address. Nothing too major - wireless Android (I think) and one or two other things.

Ah damn, yeah it's MY20. No wireless android auto is quite annoying actually! USB it is then...

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