ICE Boxster/Cayman will return!!

[pjg03d]

Interesting. I would be curious to dig into the numbers a bit more. They use “lifetime energy cost,” so I would love to see the timeline that they’re using. The longer the timeline, the longer the “break even point” for example.

Geography also matters significantly for solar and wind. As does “land cost” as they take up significantly more acreage than a coal or natural gas or nuclear plant.

I think the headline may be a bit simplistic without know the real details.

They did note they’re talking about building new power plants. Existing plants are still significantly cheaper than building a new solar or wind farm. So fossil fuel plants are also being kept alive because they already exist.

It’s like comparing the costs of ownership of a used ICE vehicle to a new BEV. The used car will still be cheaper to own. Different math when comparing new to new.

What is never built into these numbers, because it is difficult and cumbersome to do so, is the social cost of carbon, which we all pay whether we believe in it or want to, or not.

LNG plants that are already online may be cheaper to operate day to day compared to a buildout of a new solar farm array, but those costs are always represented as costs to the utility building and operating them, not the extended costs of healthcare due to asthma and other cardiopulmonary issues caused by combustion exhaust, or cost of flooding/flood insurance due to more frequent high-intensity storms, etc.

In this case it is more like comparing a... hm, relevance...used high-mileage and poorly maintained 911 996 that you and your family agreed to fix up, to a new Chevy Bolt or something. Upfront costs are going to be low on the 996 but paying to even maintain its drivability may bankrupt your family or it may just catch fire in the garage. Should have just bought the Bolt.

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[Gino]

At some point the tech improvements plateau. I got rid of my iphone 12 for a 16 model and wonder to this day what changed after 4 years.
Most people don’t need more than 200 miles of range. What we need is more charging infrastructure. I have a house and charge at home, but I reckon most can’t.
Also, cost of repairing what? All cars have software and electronics. The battery? I guess it would cost the same as repairing a blown engine. What we also need is more indy shops getting up to speed with EV tech.

Very true and it is happening. There is a lucrative market unfolding. It always does. I have no doubt shops are looking at ways to make money on battery repairs & replacements, electric motor & EV transmission rebuilds. If these shops are too expensive they won’t flourish just as the OEMs will be sensitive to their parts & repair pricing to avoid their vehicles being considered disposable which will destroy value of ownership, ROI and the brand itself. There isn’t anything on this earth which can’t be fixed or rebuilt. It’s just a matter of what the cost is to do the job. The ones that succeed will cost less than the OEM and the ones that die are too expensive.
I look forward to this eventuality.

 

[69Mach390]

At some point the tech improvements plateau. I got rid of my iphone 12 for a 16 model and wonder to this day what changed after 4 years.
Most people don’t need more than 200 miles of range. What we need is more charging infrastructure. I have a house and charge at home, but I reckon most can’t.
Also, cost of repairing what? All cars have software and electronics. The battery? I guess it would cost the same as repairing a blown engine. What we also need is more indy shops getting up to speed with EV tech.

Cost to repair the battery, yes.

In a collectible car, the value of the car exceeds the value of the engine.

EV batteries run $30k plus labor.

High mileage used EVs are worth like $8k (look up what a 2013-2014 used Model S goes for).

My 69 Mustang Mach 1 Mustang is collectible. And even though the motor is 56 years old, I’m still not worried about it “blowing up.”

Indie shops trying to get into EV tech is a losing business proposition.

ALL EVs in the US have an 8 yr 100k warranty. Many people buy extended warranties. The likelihood of someone going to the indie shop for a battery replacement is extremely low.

Especially since 90% of the cost of the battery replacement is the battery. Why not just go back to the dealership service center in the rare situation someone would do a full battery replacement on a 10+ yr old car?

 

[69Mach390]

What is never built into these numbers, because it is difficult and cumbersome to do so, is the social cost of carbon, which we all pay whether we believe in it or want to, or not.

LNG plants that are already online may be cheaper to operate day to day compared to a buildout of a new solar farm array, but those costs are always represented as costs to the utility building and operating them, not the extended costs of healthcare due to asthma and other cardiopulmonary issues caused by combustion exhaust, or cost of flooding/flood insurance due to more frequent high-intensity storms, etc.

In this case it is more like comparing a... hm, relevance...used high-mileage and poorly maintained 911 996 that you and your family agreed to fix up, to a new Chevy Bolt or something. Upfront costs are going to be low on the 996 but paying to even maintain its drivability may bankrupt your family or it may just catch fire in the garage. Should have just bought the Bolt.

For sure carbon costs aren’t in the calculation.

I honestly believe that the vast majority of people only care about that when it’s convenient to do so anyways. Outside of those rare situations, they vote with their wallets and lifestyle.

Want to cut the biggest amount of carbon out of your “car experience?” Do the following:

Live closer to work
Always carpool or even better, ride a bike
Never buy a new car
Never buy a foreign built car (shipping)
Never use A/C

Want to cut significant amounts of carbon out of your lifestyle?

Never buy that cheaper Chinese built product on Amazon.
Live in a smaller, old house and never use A/C or heat.

I could go on, but you get the idea. These make a huge impact, but are super inconvenient to the lifestyles we enjoy.

It isn’t good, but I’ll continue to live in my big house with my 5 cars and have a few Amazon packages delivered to my house daily.

At least my work commute is only 1 mile, I drive less than 4k miles/yr and daily an EV. So that’s something.

 

[jk981]

Surely taycans won’t go down to 8k though… right?

 

[69Mach390]

Surely taycans won’t go down to 8k though… right?

Probably not that low, but give it 10 years and…… maybe 15-20k?

Just because a car is pretty, doesn’t mean people won’t run for the hills because of reliability and repair costs.

Ask Maserati about that.

 

[jk981]

Probably not that low, but give it 10 years and…… maybe 15-20k?

Just because a car is pretty, doesn’t mean people won’t run for the hills because of reliability and repair costs.

Ask Maserati about that.

God that's brutal. My Cayman is 9 years old and could still go for 30-40k USD probably. Hopefully a J1.2 will stay around there after 10 years.

Edit: just searched on cargurus and there's 2020-2021 Taycans for 40k now. Not just RWD either.

 

[Gino]

Cost to repair the battery, yes.

In a collectible car, the value of the car exceeds the value of the engine.

EV batteries run $30k plus labor.

High mileage used EVs are worth like $8k (look up what a 2013-2014 used Model S goes for).

My 69 Mustang Mach 1 Mustang is collectible. And even though the motor is 56 years old, I’m still not worried about it “blowing up.”

Indie shops trying to get into EV tech is a losing business proposition.

ALL EVs in the US have an 8 yr 100k warranty. Many people buy extended warranties. The likelihood of someone going to the indie shop for a battery replacement is extremely low.

Especially since 90% of the cost of the battery replacement is the battery. Why not just go back to the dealership service center in the rare situation someone would do a full battery replacement on a 10+ yr old car?

There are already 3rd party shops beginning to prepare for doing battery repairs & replacements since OEMs like Porsche charge far more than these shops can make great money doing repairs/replacements.
I know master Porsche engine rebuilders which charge half of what Porsche charges to rebuild an ICE motor. The same goes for the electric motors & transmissions which I would never take to Porsche once their are qualified shops in the US.
Porsche must sell the software analysis tools and repair manuals to 3rd party shops under “right to repair” laws which allows these shops to offer much better pricing than the extremely high prices from Porsche.
Anything can be fixed, anything can be rebuilt or repaired. It’s just a matter of how much a shop expects to make when doing so.
The cost of a full battery replacement several years back shown on this site at roughly $57K is not likely where Porsche will be by 2028 when their first model years of the Taycan begin to come off warranty. Battery replacements/repairs will become big business for 3rd parties as batteries fail more from just time and not the 300K mile lifetime the batteries were designed for.
Tesla sells a complete replacement of all 5 battery packs in a Model S for $35K as of 2-3 years ago. I’m not sure what it is now but that’s significantly cheaper than Porsche will likely be.
I suspect Porsche will be in the $45K to $50K range initially but as 3rd party shops get educated & ramp up I expect the price from these 3rd parties will be in the $20K to $25K max which will force Porsche to reconsider their pricing going forward.
Porsche ICE rebuild cost typically runs in the $25K to $35K depending on the motor and the location of the dealer.
I expect this is where Porsche will land on pricing, worst case, to replace a full battery pack.
The big question will be what warranty they will offer for that price.
Hopefully it will be at least 4 years with data which shows batteries that last 4 years have an extremely high expectation to last for at least 15 years.
If Porsche does this then I would consider paying the premium to have Porsche do the replacement. Of the warranty is only 12-24 months the same as a 3rd party will offer then I wouldn’t bother with Porsche service.

 

[Gino]

Cost to repair the battery, yes.

In a collectible car, the value of the car exceeds the value of the engine.

EV batteries run $30k plus labor.

High mileage used EVs are worth like $8k (look up what a 2013-2014 used Model S goes for).

My 69 Mustang Mach 1 Mustang is collectible. And even though the motor is 56 years old, I’m still not worried about it “blowing up.”

Indie shops trying to get into EV tech is a losing business proposition.

ALL EVs in the US have an 8 yr 100k warranty. Many people buy extended warranties. The likelihood of someone going to the indie shop for a battery replacement is extremely low.

Especially since 90% of the cost of the battery replacement is the battery. Why not just go back to the dealership service center in the rare situation someone would do a full battery replacement on a 10+ yr old car?

By the way, my Taycan will never have high mileage and will always be garaged and kept in perfect condition. The battery will eventually die due to its age, not high mileage so it will become a collectible. I don’t care if it increases in value or not. I just care that I can get it repaired when it breaks down. I have no doubt my Taycan will always be able to be repaired by Porsche or by 3rd parties so I’m not worried in the least. Porsche is not going to allow their brand to be tagged with the disposable EVs.
I do know people who have 30 year old air cooled 911s which are worth a lot of money as collectibles but they drive terribly compared to today’s 911. I would rather have my Taycan with the way it handles, accelerates & has such a smooth & refined ride rather than a collector car that looks great in a showroom but driving it is like comparing a beat up go cart to a new 911 turbo. I could care less about a 911 turbo with a track suspension you can drive over 200mph. If I want to get that experience once in a blue moon then I’ll ride with my friends who are true Porsche performance enthusiasts.
I don’t buy Porsche’s as an investment. I don’t buy them for the fastest 0-60 or 1/4 mile. I buy Porsche’s because I love their fit, finish, suspension & better than most acceleration which is good enough for me in base models.
I never sell cars so depreciation or appreciation are meaningless to me.

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