January Delivery @Jacksonville Port (US Southeast destination)

[Tooney]

So here is a wild guess. The current compass heading for SA is 238 degrees. That makes no sense for great circle route to Halifax, it is pointing way too south. It seems like it should be greater than 270 for a route to Halifax.

Also there are winds of almost 120 mph in their path if they head to Halifax.

So it looks like they are going to Jacksonville first then going north to finish up and skirt the weather.

Total round trip distance from Rotterdam is about the same no matter which way they go.

Do you think my calculations are influenced by living in Central Florida?

YES! But then, it is called Track Your DREAM.

Sponsored

 

[PDACPA]

What the next stop after Baltimore and Jax? I wonder if it switch the two due to port availability and heads back to EU after that.

I think Houston is the regular route after Jax.

 

[Dan1923]

SA is finally starting a turn to starboard, i.e. to the west towards the USA. From Friday evening up until about a half an hour ago it's heading was 211 degrees. It's heading is now 231 degrees. It will have to swing around to about 280 degrees to be on a great circle route to Canada or the USA.

 

[DACSarasota]

Seems to be going with traffic.

 

[Prit]

SA is finally starting a turn to starboard, i.e. to the west towards the USA. From Friday evening up until about a half an hour ago it's heading was 211 degrees. It's heading is now 231 degrees. It will have to swing around to about 280 degrees to be on a great circle route to Canada or the USA.

It’s looking like an ETA of more like 12/19.

 

[MohCT4]

Yup, making its turn.

 

[MohCT4]

Showing Halifax 12/18, Baltimore 12/20, JAX 12/22

 

[Dan1923]

I was just poking around to look at how other ships that look to be in the same flow as SA and are head to the USA are doing.

The ship Saga Frontier Is going about the same speed as SA and is headed to Cape Canaveral FL. But its ETA is Dec 26. Even though that is later than the ETA of SA (Dec 18) the good thing is on a great circle route it takes less time to get to Halifax than to Cape Canaveral. But the bad thing is Neither SA nor Saga Frontier is on a great circle route.

Another ship, Sluisgracht, is also a bit ahead of SA and it has an ETA of Dec 19 in Baltimore. But it is traveling at 14.4kn, which is faster than SA. Again a great circle route is both a good and a bad thing because Sluisgracht is not currently on a great circle route to Baltimore.

I’m guessing that SA, Saga Frontier, and Sluisgracht are not on a great circle route because of weather. Right now the GFS (US weather service) shows the possibility of wind gusts of up to 70mph on the great circle route to Halifax.

What does all this mean? I think it greatly reduces the odds of those of us in Florida (is there anyone else ) of getting our cars before the end of the year.

It will take a couple of days to see how the weather really impacts SA's schedule.

 

[Prit]

I was just poking around to look at how other ships that look to be in the same flow as SA and are head to the USA are doing.

The ship Saga Frontier Is going about the same speed as SA and is headed to Cape Canaveral FL. But its ETA is Dec 26. Even though that is later than the ETA of SA (Dec 18) the good thing is on a great circle route it takes less time to get to Halifax than to Cape Canaveral. But the bad thing is Neither SA nor Saga Frontier is on a great circle route.

Another ship, Sluisgracht, is also a bit ahead of SA and it has an ETA of Dec 19 in Baltimore. But it is traveling at 14.4kn, which is faster than SA. Again a great circle route is both a good and a bad thing because Sluisgracht is not currently on a great circle route to Baltimore.

I’m guessing that SA, Saga Frontier, and Sluisgracht are not on a great circle route because of weather. Right now the GFS (US weather service) shows the possibility of wind gusts of up to 70mph on the great circle route to Halifax.

What does all this mean? I think it greatly reduces the odds of those of us in Florida (is there anyone else ) of getting our cars before the end of the year.

It will take a couple of days to see how the weather really impacts SA's schedule.

Well that sucks. I’m not in Florida, but I’m in Atlanta and my pre-2022 delivery requires SA reaching Jacksonville by 12/27 or 12/28 so I could get invoiced before 2022.

 

[Dan1923]

Showing Halifax 12/18, Baltimore 12/20, JAX 12/22

I like those dates. If SA switches to a great circle in the new few hours it can get to Halifax in 7 days. But that would take it through the weather it seems to be trying to avoid.

 

[Dan1923]

Well that sucks. I’m not in Florida, but I’m in Atlanta and my pre-2022 delivery requires SA reaching Jacksonville by 12/27 or 12/28 so I could get invoiced before 2022.

I would wait a couple of days before giving up hope.

 

[Dan1923]

Well that sucks. I’m not in Florida, but I’m in Atlanta and my pre-2022 delivery requires SA reaching Jacksonville by 12/27 or 12/28 so I could get invoiced before 2022.

Hey Prit, is that invoicing on delivery to port something you worked out with the dealer? How did you do that? It's something I'd be interested in.

 

[DACSarasota]

My SA told me once it is scanned at port, it can be sold. So scanning at port is the critical date.

 

[Dan1923]

My SA told me once it is scanned at port, it can be sold. So scanning at port is the critical date.

Thanks, I'll have to check that out!

 

[Dan1923]

SA still hasn’t changed course and is still proceed mostly south at 220 degrees.

So I resurrected some stuff I had long since forgotten. Assuming SA turns onto a great circle route sometime in the next 12 hours its heading, right after the turn, will be:

Halifax 291 to 292
Jacksonville 281 to 282

If it does this in the next 24 hours or so and maintains 15kn it will have no problem reaching Halifax by 12/18. If it turns out that it is going to Jacksonville then it will have no trouble getting there by 12/21.

The Halifax route takes its pretty much into bad weather and the Jacksonville route skirts just barely around it.

I think I am bit anxious to get my Taycan

We will just have to wait and see where SA goes.

Sponsored