January Delivery @Jacksonville Port (US Southeast destination)

[Prit]

SA still hasn’t changed course and is still proceed mostly south at 220 degrees.

So I resurrected some stuff I had long since forgotten. Assuming SA turns onto a great circle route sometime in the next 12 hours its heading, right after the turn, will be:

Halifax 291 to 292
Jacksonville 281 to 282

If it does this in the next 24 hours or so and maintains 15kn it will have no problem reaching Halifax by 12/18. If it turns out that it is going to Jacksonville then it will have no trouble getting there by 12/21.

The Halifax route takes its pretty much into bad weather and the Jacksonville route skirts just barely around it.

I think I am bit anxious to get my Taycan

We will just have to wait and see where SA goes.

I think SA would need to "announce" a change of ports, no? If this is the case, we can assume nothing has changed since they haven't "announced" a change.

 

[Dan1923]

I think SA would need to "announce" a change of ports, no? If this is the case, we can assume nothing has changed since they haven't "announced" a change.

I don't know the procedures involved but the next port is part of the AIS data (data sent to the Automatic Identification Systems satellite).

For sure the Captain has to notify the port (and the owner) of a change if they are going to be late or not go to the port but my guess is that putting that change into the AIS is a manual process that nothing important depends on. The captain would use the radio or satellite phone to notify the port and owner. If you poke around the ships at sea will find quite a few that don't even fill out the next port info.

The position, speed and bearing are pretty important because other ships depend on that for safety. But I think the ships nav system automatically updates the satellite.

So my guess is that next port and date are pretty much a guess.

 

[DACSarasota]

Would one of you Greek philosopher trackers be kind enough to please share an update?

 

[Prit]

Would one of you Greek philosopher trackers be kind enough to please share an update?

Haha. I’m dying. See below. ETA Dec 19 at 2:52 pm ET.

 

[Dan1923]

SA’s current position is about 38N 21W 239 degrees 14kn

I’ve been tracking SA and given it’s current position and direction it is not traveling in a direction that would take it to Halifax. I don’t see how it can get to Halifax by Dec 18 at 18:00 (local). It seems like it will be at least a full day late of that.

The short distance to Halifax is a great circle route, and at the present that is not the route SA is on. It should swing to about 293 degrees to be on a great circle to Halifax.

I think the reason it seems to be seems to be going in the wrong direction is that it is trying to avoid head winds it would run into if it had a more northerly course. That’s just a guess though.

 

[NoRPM22]

No posts here for the last 12 hrs. Is the ship still heading this way?

 

[Dan1923]

I did a little data processing just to try to see when my car will be here. What I did is compute the route (Halifax, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Veracruz) that I think SA is on. From that I computed the time SA will arrive at the ports on the route, with some time allowed for unloading. I did the computation for average cruising speeds 10kn through 16kn.

The gotcha’ is that it assumes that SA uses a great circle route. It isn’t now so the arrival time in the chart below shows the earliest time SA could arrive. Each row in the chart is a different cruising speed and each column represents a port.

For example if SA was on a great circle route right now (it isn’t) and was traveling at 13kn and took 12 hours to unload it would arrive at Baltimore on Wed 22 Dec 19:48 EST.

I’ll update as SA progresses and make special update once SA is on a great circle route (if I am awake )

 

[Dan1923]

The route I using.

 

[Dan1923]

A Better picture of the route. SA is near the Azores.

 

[Dan1923]

BTW, SA is currently shredding! It is running at 15.2kn and it's max is 15.5kn.

It also just posted a new Halifax latest possible arrival time of 19 Dec 5:00 EST which is pretty close to what my table says for an average speed for an average speed of 13kn

 

[Dan1923]

This morning SA is west of the Azores and is ripping along at 17.5kn! But is still is not on a great circle route so the table represents the earliest it will arrive, not actual arrival.

 

[DACSarasota]

Dan, I am sure everyone here agrees your analysis is informative, entertaining and appreciated. Out of curiosity, are you in the automotive or shipping industry?

Hoping the weather clears up in Halifax for its arrival.

 

[Dan1923]

Dan, I am sure everyone here agrees your analysis is informative, entertaining and appreciated. Out of curiosity, are you in the automotive or shipping industry?

Hoping the weather clears up in Halifax for its arrival.

No but in the distant past I did learn about navigation and could even shoot a position with a sextant. My background is computers; designing, programming, and teaching. I’ve even designed a sound processor for the music industry and I’ve done a lot of data processing.

 

[Dan1923]

Lunchtime update. SA is cruising at 15kn. It still is not on a great circle to Halifax. The arrow on the map shows the direction SA is currently traveling.

 

[Dan1923]

Electrician just left... all I need now is about a 2000 mile charging cable and I am in business!

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