What happens after 8 year battery warranty?

[logic]

A big shout out to those who bought an electric car and only later realized that there might not be enough long-term support to keep it going for longer if you wanted to (or it would be annoying, expensive, and potentially a disposable just because of that battery).

It’s hard to believe that there’s no decent solution other than to fix one module at a time, with 32 other modules that could still go bad.

I always thought that battery prices would drop, giving third-party vendors the chance to step in and offer a complete package for a fraction of the OEM version. New LFP batteries are so cheap in comparison.

Seriously, how hard can it be?

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[Sace]

So far my degradation is 9% in almost 4 years and 24k miles. If that continues on a linear basis I‘ll have no complaints. Is degradation linear?

Battery degradation for this kind of battery is way steeper in the beginning and then levels out - So it's probably degrading way less the next 4 years (assuming the same usage pattern).

By design, the Porsche modular battery architecture uses the least health battery module/cell to govern the overall SofH. Balancing occurs downwards. That seems opposite to the benefits of modular/failsafe design - battery health/range is governed by the least healthy of your 28/33 battery modules. If one fails, they all fail..

There is nothing unique about this design - That's how everyone does battery packs. The worst performing cell will always dictate the battery performance as the motor draws power from the full pack, not the individual cells.

It's the fact that the cells fail that is the problem which does not seem to be the case in most other EV batteries (not nearly in the same scale).

 

[whitex]

I always thought that battery prices would drop, giving third-party vendors the chance to step in and offer a complete package for a fraction of the OEM version. New LFP batteries are so cheap in comparison.

Seriously, how hard can it be?

The prices do drop. When first Model S was released, the battery was over $44K. After 8 years, when cars started rolling off the warranty, the price was ~$20K. Today you can get a refurbished battery from Tesla even cheaper. Vast majority of Taycans are not out of battery warranty, so there is no pressure from the market for a better price, if Porsche or insurance pays pretty much for all replacements.

 

[D00notD00d]

We have all seen a 250,000 mile, say Volvo, will we ever see a 250,000 mile Taycan?

Triggers broom

 

[D00notD00d]

There is nothing unique about this design - That's how everyone does battery packs. The worst performing cell will always dictate the battery performance as the motor draws power from the full pack, not the individual cells.

So they’re all wrong?
That design may work in other applications, where you don’t need to spend £7000 labour to spend £800 replacing a dud battery module.

Taycan hasn’t been designed with maintenance/the real world in mind. Similarly the panoramic roof. And the battery protection plate.

 

[Sace]

So they’re all wrong?
That design may work in other applications, where you don’t need to spend £7000 labour to spend £800 replacing a dud battery module.

Taycan hasn’t been designed with maintenance/the real world in mind. Similarly the panoramic roof. And the battery protection plate.

I guess it's because it would be super expensive to include the hardware to actually physically disconnect a cell/module + you will not be able to get the same performance out of the remainder of the pack (Lower voltage, capacity etc). If you have a product using alkaline batteries you can't just swap one out for a new when the others are dead.

I agree that the expense for this kind of work on the taycan is way off. On paper the modular approach sounds nice but it clearly does not work well in the real world. It's both expensive and does not solve the underlying problem of the cells simply dying way before they should. In my mind this is the underlying problem they should solve.

 

[MnLakeBum]

Gruber Motor company in AZ has been fixing Tesla batteries for a decade or more. One of my buddies shipped his Model S to them for a battery repair that cost him $2100 plus the shipping. As is often the case only a few of the 7,104 battery cells were bad. Those can be replaced or just bypassed. He’s put another 75k miles on that battery since with zero issues and now 260k miles.

FWIW, my Model S battery was replaced under warranty at 110k miles and now I have 153k on it. If the battery in my E Tron GT fails out of warranty, maybe Gruber or someone else will be fixing them. I’m only putting about 5,000 miles a year on the GT so I’m not worried about it.

 

[snstevens]

_ANY_ major drive train component on _ANY_ Porsche is expensive to replace after it fails/degrades at 100k miles or more…

a partial list of expensive items on Porsche that will bank rupt you after 100k miles…

1. engine
2. turbo replacement
3. transfer case for SUV
4. transmission(s) PDK or other wise
5. full suspension
6. air suspension
7. any "main" computer - there are at least 3 "main computers" that are 10k or more to replace
8. any digital "screen" or dashboard component
9. "top end" of the motor
10. "bottom end" of the motor
11. fuel injector system
12. any "bearing" inside the motor
13. drive shaft
14. PCCB rotors
15. list continues…

if the battery is working at 100k mile or 8 years it will probably continue to work almost indefinately - if it "fails" it will be expensive to replace/repair like _ANY_ major vehicle component - actual battery failures are expected to be low single digit's percentages - sucks to be you if you're one of the digits but it's not like these things turn into pumpkins and simply shut down…

any given battery will continue to work or it simply won't - the expected outcome is nearly all the batteries won't have issues, but there will be some and the ones that do fail will be expensive to repair - but have you checked the price on a 911 TurboS flat-6 motor replacement yet at 150k miles? or a PDK transmission? or the AWD drive-train components on a 911 turbos? (or macan?)

honestly _IF_ a battery fails, and it's replaced - I'd consider the EV much better with new battery vs. a 911 with a new engine - the 911 still has at least 6-7 other "shoes" to drop even after you replace a whole engine - transmission or other thing will be next…

it's going to cost a lost of money to get a battery fixed if it fails out of warranty

here let me rephrase that

it's going to cost a lot of money to fix any of your Porsche's if they fail out of warranty.

Dave is exactly right - this is all expensive shit, so keep an extended warranty in place on as much of the car as you can, for as long as you can.

Regarding battery replacement -- I posted the info below on another thread, but it fits here too.​

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I've wondered that myself [cost of ICE engine rebuild vs. battery replacement]. While not definitive, it appears that the price for a Porsche ICE engine rebuild would be in the range of $10k-$20k for a Cayman or Boxster, or $15k-$30k for a 911 series, but this doesn't always include removal and reinstallation costs. (see link & link).​

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At different times in this forum and elsewhere I've seen a parts-price for the 93.4KWh battery from $25k - $40k. At Porsche OEM Parts Online I found a price of $25,850, but that doesn't include installation (sort of like the ICE scenario above).​

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Seems to me that the cost of a full ICE rebuilt on a 911 and a battery replacement on a Taycan are roughly in the same ballpark.​

Note also that this is pricing "today" and it is likely to be less in the future given the reduction of battery costs over time. However, given the number of "moving parts" in a 911 ICE engine rebuild, that price will likely continue to go up over time.

 

[snstevens]

One thing that is not speculation is the cost of replacing a battery pack by Porsche at one of it’s dealers costing close to $60K after the parts & labor breakdown was put on this forum.
After 8 years these costs will be the responsibility of the vehicle owner rather than the dealer.
Porsche will have to get the a full battery replacement cost down by at least 50% to be in line with the cost to rebuild a Porsche ICE motor.
I’ve spoken with people at the NTHSB about their safety concerns for non OEM or DIY battery replacements which lead to fires due to improper procedures, untested repairs of battery modules and out of spec aging charging systems. I get the feeling from these people that regulations are coming to insure only certified battery repair/replacement facilities supported by the OEMs will be allowed.
One of their biggest fears is a DIY battery repaired vehicle gets sold to an unsuspecting buyer unaware the battery could rupture into a runaway fire in their garage, at the office garage, shopping center garage or an airport garage.
It would be very tempting to have an uncertified mechanic repair a battery for $10K instead of $60K from Porsche but I would really hate to park my car in my garage only to come back to a smoldering pile of ash where my garage was and serious damage to my home. Regulations are absolutely necessary. I’ve already talked with small independent auto repair shops looking to get into the business of battery repair & replacement since they already rebuild & replace ICE motors and batteries are fair game as far as they’re concerned. There is a huge profit motive for them.
Even Tesla charges $35K to replace the 5 battery modules in a model S out of warranty.
Remember, the Porsche warranty is 8 years or 100,000 miles whichever comes first. For any Taycan owner or the second hand owner that has over 100K miles on it, is on the hook for a potential full battery replacement. I’m sure there are a number of Taycan owners which will go over 100K in 5, 6 or 7 years and need a battery repair or replacement. I give it until 2026 when these stories begin to show up. We’ll see then what the actual cost to repair or replace these batteries and how Porsche responds to these original owners or the next owner. I’m certain Porsche sales will take this opportunity to take the vehicle back at a terrible trade-in value for a new or newer vehicle with a battery under warranty to kick the can down the road. Porsche will then repair the battery at their cost and sell the vehicle as some version of a CPO that covers the battery for another 8 years.
Expect “right to repair” laws to begin focusing on EVs and the safety regulations which will follow to insure EVs don’t become potential fire bombs in our communities.

Gino - I think your data on cost is way too high. See my recent post above.

 

[snstevens]

That’s a great sign… I’m sure there are many shops dying to get a piece of the battery repair & replacement business.
There are risks with ICE vehicles but they are well understood with decades of safe operation. A lithium ion battery only needs a pinhole to allow moisture into the pack leading to arcing. The last LG recall on their battery packs was due to a failed batch of adhesive which would allow the seams of an individual battery pouch to become open to ambient air. This failure just like a pinhole would lead to arcing and a runaway fire.
Gas tanks & even propane, LNG & hydrogen have been proven to be very stable with the exception of being in an accident. Lithium ion & Hydrogen are the worst in terms of violent fires & explosions but the Lithium ion fire is the most difficult to put out once it gets started. This is why the NTHSB is going to introduce regulations on the safe handling, repair, refurbishment & installation of Lithium ion batteries so the driver doesn’t get into a very dangerous situation.
Battery technologies & safety systems to reduce or prevent runaway fires will come over time just as safety systems for ICE vehicles developed over many decades.

Not to throw gasoline on your vehicle fire concerns, but EVs are much safer than ICE engines. See this report with the following statement and links --

New study shows EV fires are far less common than in gas vehicles.​

According to findings pointed out by AutoInsuranceEZ, vehicles that operate using gasoline are tenfold more likely to catch fire compared to EVs. ​

​

The study compiled and compared data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), and government recall data from Recalls.gov to put together the charts you see above and below. ​

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From that data, you will notice that far more fire recalls were made in 2020 for gasoline models, which also include hybrids in which vehicle batteries garner 100% of their energy directly from gasoline combustion in the engine.​

 

[tonycolin]

Independent body shops will start servicing EVs by then if not already. I've already located one in my area that will work on Taycans; they have access to all the programs as well

 

[SteveDC]

I guess it's because it would be super expensive to include the hardware to actually physically disconnect a cell/module + you will not be able to get the same performance out of the remainder of the pack (Lower voltage, capacity etc). If you have a product using alkaline batteries you can't just swap one out for a new when the others are dead.

I agree that the expense for this kind of work on the taycan is way off. On paper the modular approach sounds nice but it clearly does not work well in the real world. It's both expensive and does not solve the underlying problem of the cells simply dying way before they should. In my mind this is the underlying problem they should solve.

There is also the possibility that there will be centers created for major repairs, depending on the repairs in question. So dealers need not bulk up for repairs requiring a high degree of specialty, or they could do so and do for work from surrounding dealers. Something like this occurs for my red car of Italian manufacture. I had a radiator problem and it was sent off to a specialist.

 

[Gino]

I bet there's a fair few people over 100k miles already.
Porsche have already mentioned some French bloke in excess of 300k km.

My bet (hopefully) is that in the coming years a large portion of the motor repair industry will pivot from repairing ICE cars to EV's and especially battery repair/replacement/re-condition/recycle
?

It needs to happen.
I would imagine it will be fairly lucrative for those that crack it.

I already know of several ICE/transmission rebuild/repair shops eyeing battery pack rebuilding & repairs as a new source of revenue as EVs become more prevalent. Right to repair laws in the US should provide the path to these business opportunities for existing ICE repair shops.
I could easily see companies popping up which will be able to repair, recondition or replace lithium battery modules with new batteries from LG & others.
I expect it is only a matter of time that properly regulated facilities will begin to repair/replace all EV batteries & charging systems at a fraction of the cost currently being charged by OEMs.
Just like getting a rebuilt ICE motor from Porsche can cost $25K to $50K or more but $10K to $20K from an independent Porsche engine master rebuilder today so will the cost of a professional repair or replacement of major systems of EVs from the electric drive motors, transmissions & lithium batteries to the custom electronics & displays in these vehicles once they are no longer available from dealers.
Worst case there will be shops/companies which will repair these customized displays if you ever need one.

 

[Gino]

Gino - I think your data on cost is way too high. See my recent post above.

The costs I referred to were what a dealer showed a Taycan customer they charged back to Porsche corporate. These numbers should really only represent the worst case scenario if Porsche wanted to sell battery replacements at their internal costs. They would never do this but it at least sets a price point that we know will drop when a customer is on the hook for a replacement after 8 years or 100K miles in the US.
I’m sure at some point a Taycan owner will post what he/she was charged to replace their battery after 100K miles or 8 years.
Hopefully it will be $30K or less by 2030.
Until then it will be free under the existing warranty.

 

[Gino]

Gino - I think your data on cost is way too high. See my recent post above.

That’s very good to know. I realize vehicle fires are pretty rare but if you’re the unlucky one to have their vehicle go up in flames in their home then it becomes very real.
I’m fairly comfortable it won’t happen to me but I do have a nagging voice in the back of my head asking “but what if it does catch fire?” I guess all I can do is make sure my garage & house are insured well…

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