2025 4S CT Lease numbers

[MohCT4]

So my 2025 4S CT will be here tomorrow, will be picking it up next week. Upgrading from my 2022 4CT.

I purchased the 2022 but decided to lease the 2025 based on how terrible the depreciation has been. I wanted to get rid of the 2022 before the value kept dropping. Finally got my lease numbers and they are pretty bad. Seems like it’s just the premium I have to pay to get a 2025.

Here’s my spec and the numbers are attached.
TLDR:
MSRP 148,760
Residual 52%(77,415)
MF .00440

39 month(same residual as 36mo)
15k miles per year(I drive more than 12k per year)

monthly payment with $0 down
$2896

I don’t regularly lease cars. Based on the numbers does this seem fair in the current environment/state of the EV marketplace? (I know I’m paying much more than if I bought a 2024 on the lot. But I want the range bump and am not really interested in buying with such a massive projected depreciation. )

https://configurator.porsche.com/porsche-code/PSSB2PC1

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[Jonathan S.]

As not your financial advisor, I can assure you that either leasing or buying a nearly $150k 2025 4S CT is a major financial loss compared to holding onto a 2022 4 CT: the resale value of your 2022 4 CT will indeed keep dropping, but the current resale value already reflects the market's expectation that its resale value will keep dropping into the future.

That said, if the major financial loss of upgrading to a 2025 4S CT from a 2022 4 CT measures favorably on your personally calibrated WorthItMeter (TM) for the benefits of a 2025 4S CT vs a 2022 4 CT ...
... In general, the purchase vs lease decision has been the subject of many fulfilling decades-long business school finance professor careers.

In this specific context, rest assured that Porsche Financial Services, Inc. employs numerous highly capable financial analysts (former students even of those aforementioned finance professors) who hold an equally pessimistic outlook for the Taycan's future resale value, and will configure the lease terms accordingly such that their ultimate corporate parent (working through numerous complex layers of intertwining/interlocking ownership) Porsche SE will gain more from leasing than you gain from leasing.

However, the American taxpayers are generously kicking in $7.5k for the lease, in the form of a reduction in federal tax liability for this subsidiary of Porsche AG, which Porsche Financial Services, Inc. is indirectly passing onto you (Line 11).
So that $7.5.k might be enough to push the needle in favor of leasing. But you're paying for the massive projected diminution in resale value either way.

P.S. Sweet spec! (Even if the fob is a bit baffling to me.)

 

[neutrino]

I’m not a lease expert. I’m not the best negotiator. I will accept a deal that is reasonable for me and also allows the dealer to make some money.

I’m working on a 24 month lease for a 2024 CT and getting the current national lease promo with the cap cost reduction, and a discount on MSRP. So if anything I say steers you wrong my apologies

I wanted to comment the money factor on my current potential deal is .0036. So you might see what you can do about lowering the money factor. Sounds like your dealer has added some points. I currently think the Porsche Finance factor is .0035. The residual is likely not something you could negotiate as set by Porsche Finance.

The only other way to improve the deal is a discount on MSRP, but my impression is that is unlikely to happen with custom orders. Which I want to do in the future if I enjoy this CT off the lot.

 

[MohCT4]

As not your financial advisor, I can assure you that either leasing or buying a nearly $150k 2025 4S CT is a major financial loss compared to holding onto a 2022 4 CT: the resale value of your 2022 4 CT will indeed keep dropping, but the current resale value already reflects the market's expectation that its resale value will keep dropping into the future.

That said, if the major financial loss of upgrading to a 2025 4S CT from a 2022 4 CT measures favorably on your personally calibrated WorthItMeter (TM) for the benefits of a 2025 4S CT vs a 2022 4 CT ...
... In general, the purchase vs lease decision has been the subject of many fulfilling decades-long business school finance professor careers.

In this specific context, rest assured that Porsche Financial Services, Inc. employs numerous highly capable financial analysts (former students even of those aforementioned finance professors) who hold an equally pessimistic outlook for the Taycan's future resale value, and will configure the lease terms accordingly such that their ultimate corporate parent (working through numerous complex layers of intertwining/interlocking ownership) Porsche SE will gain more from leasing than you gain from leasing.

However, the American taxpayers are generously kicking in $7.5k for the lease, in the form of a reduction in federal tax liability for this subsidiary of Porsche AG, which Porsche Financial Services, Inc. is indirectly passing onto you (Line 11).
So that $7.5.k might be enough to push the needle in favor of leasing. But you're paying for the massive projected diminution in resale value either way.

P.S. Sweet spec! (Even if the fob is a bit baffling to me.)

Hahah… WorthItMeter! Love it. This was actually very helpful. Thanks. And what’s so baffling? It’s a green key for a green car. ??‍

 

[MohCT4]

I’m not a lease expert. I’m not the best negotiator. I will accept a deal that is reasonable for me and also allows the dealer to make some money.

I’m working on a 24 month lease for a 2024 CT and getting the current national lease promo with the cap cost reduction, and a discount on MSRP. So if anything I say steers you wrong my apologies

I wanted to comment the money factor on my current potential deal is .0036. So you might see what you can do about lowering the money factor. Sounds like your dealer has added some points. I currently think the Porsche Finance factor is .0035. The residual is likely not something you could negotiate as set by Porsche Finance.

The only other way to improve the deal is a discount on MSRP, but my impression is that is unlikely to happen with custom orders. Which I want to do in the future if I enjoy this CT off the lot.

I will definitely try to negotiate that MF. Thank you for the info!

 

[Jonathan S.]

Hahah… WorthItMeter! Love it. This was actually very helpful. Thanks. And what’s so baffling? It’s a green key for a green car. ??‍

Ah, I missed that part -- makes sense now!
(Although makes my realize that my Porsche key ring does not match my CT...)

 

[MohCT4]

Ah, I missed that part -- makes sense now!
(Although makes my realize that my Porsche key ring does not match my CT...)

The color doesn't preview in the main configurator screen. You have to go through the edit screen to actually see the color.

 

[Jonathan S.]

The color doesn't preview in the main configurator screen. You have to go through the edit screen to actually see the color.

Ah, that explains why I missed the color matching!

So I couldn't resist a fun financial puzzle ...
... based on some quick calcs, if you think that as of 39 months from now, with close to the max of 48,750 miles, the cash resale value or tax-adjusted trade-in value of that Taycan if purchased will be ~$59k or higher , then buy.
Otherwise, lease.

(Note that I'm using a discount rate based on 3 yr Treasuries, on the idea that if this were me, that is how I would value a 39-month time horizon, based on the opportunity cost of some combination of liquidated and/or foregone investments valued at a highly conservative nearly risk-free rate, as opposed to the current new car loan rate, which is about 2x that. The higher the discount rate, then the higher the necessary resale value to favor purchasing, as a higher discount rate reduces both the present value of the stream of future lease payments and the present value of the future resale value.)

Given that Porsche predicts the retail used value will be ~$77.4k, that ~$59k is probably somewhere in the ballpark for the wholesale used value. All of which I suspect is no coincidence.

 

[Detect]

Personally, I would sell the '22 CT and search for CPO '23 CT TS for lease at 12 mo/15k or maybe 24 mo if the numbers aren't much higher. You could get a higher specced car at 1/3 of the monthly payment...

 

[MohCT4]

Personally, I would sell the '22 CT and search for CPO '23 CT TS for lease at 12 mo/15k or maybe 24 mo if the numbers aren't much higher. You could get a higher specced car at 1/3 of the monthly payment...

You’re totally right. A friend just picked up a 2023 SportTurismo with 4000 miles. MSRP 178k for 125k. It’s like Jonathon said, how high is the 2025 on my “WorthItMeter.” I gotta say, the Oak Green 4S plus a marginally better PCM will probably do it for me. The 2022 has some really annoying wireless CarPlay connectivity issues too.

 

[D00notD00d]

2025 excepted, has the PCM hardware and software version changed across the years? My 2021 is on the highest available versions. The 2023 (possibly 24 MY) loaner I have shows the same connectivity issues as the 21.. Car Play vs native media getting stuck, confused by multiple phone connections, Bluetooth connectivity (phone shows already connected, PCM says can’t be found) data connectivity (which is probably the service provider, Vodafone).

Last night the Passenger display was stuck on the same track from when I entered the car and plugged in my phone, while CarPlay worked as expected in the Central Display. When I unplugged the phone when leaving the car, the passenger display cycled through every track played on the journey to catch up with CarPlay. Bizarre.

 

[MohCT4]

Yeah, it sucks, despite the software updates. Not sure if the hardware has changed at all until now. I have to manually two finger reboot once a week at the minimum. My lightning jack is half broken from the phone spending 24 hours at the bottom of the Atlantic(story for another day ?), so I’m dependent on wireless CarPlay. Sometimes it’s completely seamless, other times it’s completely unusable. I’ve read good things about the new PCM, so here’s hoping!?

 

[Jonathan S.]

You’re totally right. A friend just picked up a 2023 SportTurismo with 4000 miles. MSRP 178k for 125k. It’s like Jonathon said, how high is the 2025 on my “WorthItMeter.” I gotta say, the Oak Green 4S plus a marginally better PCM will probably do it for me. The 2022 has some really annoying wireless CarPlay connectivity issues too.

The MY25 longer range that you cited could also register favorably on the WorthItMeter.
I have no idea what your roadtrips look like, but the Chicago location means that range matters even more in cold winter temps.
We still don't know how the MY25 will fare in the C&D 75mph test, CR 70mph test, or InsideEVs 70mph test. But an initial account posted to this forum by a member who recently took delivery of a MY25 sounds very promising! And that add'l range is enough to eliminate the need to DCFC entirely on many trips, as well stretch out charging stops significantly on longer trips.

 

[Horizontally Opposed]

So my 2025 4S CT will be here tomorrow, will be picking it up next week. Upgrading from my 2022 4CT.

I purchased the 2022 but decided to lease the 2025 based on how terrible the depreciation has been. I wanted to get rid of the 2022 before the value kept dropping. Finally got my lease numbers and they are pretty bad. Seems like it’s just the premium I have to pay to get a 2025.

Here’s my spec and the numbers are attached.
TLDR:
MSRP 148,760
Residual 52%(77,415)
MF .00440

39 month(same residual as 36mo)
15k miles per year(I drive more than 12k per year)

monthly payment with $0 down
$2896

I don’t regularly lease cars. Based on the numbers does this seem fair in the current environment/state of the EV marketplace? (I know I’m paying much more than if I bought a 2024 on the lot. But I want the range bump and am not really interested in buying with such a massive projected depreciation. )

https://configurator.porsche.com/porsche-code/PSSB2PC1

When I read this I was hearing ”The definition of insanity…” in my head.

I have a 2024 CT4, and really enjoy it. But this is using money to vote for policy.

There is no way that buying or leasing an EV in 2024 can be justified on a financial basis unless you are doing really good drugs.

 

[MohCT4]

When I read this I was hearing ”The definition of insanity…” in my head.

I have a 2024 CT4, and really enjoy it. But this is using money to vote for policy.

There is no way that buying or leasing an EV in 2024 can be justified on a financial basis unless you are doing really good drugs.

That's very hard to argue with. It’s a loss both ways. I’m just justifying the loss with a shiny new version of that loss. When your accountant gives you the green light from a tax perspective then it’s just a question of which brings you more joy I guess. ??‍

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