Sell 2021 Taycan Turbo resale value (before vs after warranty expiration)?

[A.Mayor]

Of course dealers want money to diagnose, why should they eat the cost of MB's mistakes? As the car is out of warranty, the customer should pay for diagnistics, but that diagnostic should not be more than an hour's worth, and if it turns out OTA caused a problem, both the diagnostic fee and cost of just re-programming the entire car should be covered by MB. The reprogramming should really be mostly unattended process (therefore inexpensive), if the car is designed correctly. Of course traditional auto makers are not there with their designs yet, hence the issue. What will pan out of the VW/Rivian collaboration still remains to be seen. As I mentioned before, lack of vertical integration can be a big pain, VW may not be able to force their suppliers to confirm to all VW requirements, or those might just be too expensive (both because they may require extra hardware and because that might become very vendor specific, so less reuse between vendors for suppliers). I still think this will not get solved unless all traditional automakers agree on an OTA standard. Of course looking at the success of CCS1 collaboration results in USA vs. non-collaborative NACS solution, dashes my hopes that they will solve the OTA problem any time soon.

Most legacy carmakers don’t necessarily lack the tech savviness of let’s say Tesla or Rivian at all—they have the resources to acquire talented people. However, (we often forget) software patents may be an insurmountable hurdle for many legacy carmakers. Software patents last for 20 years … while there are many roads that lead to Rome, alas, many of them are blocked or cumbersome … putting legacy carmakers like Porsche at a disadvantage when it comes to bringing innovation.

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[unbiased]

Just my 0.5 cents...either extend the warranty or get rid of the car. Keeping a first gen EV is a ticking time bomb. There are so many things that can go wrong with the car. Keeping it without a warranty is like playing Russian roulette.

 

[whitex]

Most legacy carmakers don’t necessarily lack the tech savviness of let’s say Tesla or Rivian at all—they have the resources to acquire talented people. However, (we often forget) software patents may be an insurmountable hurdle for many legacy carmakers. Software patents last for 20 years … while there are many roads that lead to Rome, alas, many of them are blocked or cumbersome … putting legacy carmakers like Porsche at a disadvantage when it comes to bringing innovation.

I am certain patents are not what is preventing the automakers from getting proper OTA. Other products do it, tablets, phones, computers, IoT devices, etc, etc. Furthermore, against other automakers, traditional automakers should have much more extensive portfolio of patents than new upstarts, which they can use to trade patents. "Oh hi Upstart Company, we need to license one of your patents, but rather than bury you in a mountain of paperwork on you violating our patents, everything from wheels, suspension, seats, doors, windows, etc, let's just do a patent cross-licensing agreement" - this happens in the industry all the time, actually the small newcomers are usually at a disadvantage as their patent portfolios are still young and sparse.

What is preventing the traditional automakers from doing proper OTA is their rigid mindset and processes and lack of vertical integration. These have yielded great profits in the past, and it is very hard to change. Sometimes just nobody wants to go first, as perfectly illustrated with the 48V vehicle architecture. Everyone knew for decades what the advantages would be (less wiring, less weight) but nobody was willing to switch first. Why take the risk, have to convince all the suppliers to switch, etc. if people are buying cars with 12V just fine. It took cybertruck to rattle the cages of automakers, they are all in a rush now to catch up to this "new" decades old technology.

 

[A.Mayor]

I am certain patents are not what is preventing the automakers from getting proper OTA. Other products do it, tablets, phones, computers, IoT devices, etc, etc. Furthermore, against other automakers, traditional automakers should have much more extensive portfolio of patents than new upstarts, which they can use to trade patents. "Oh hi Upstart Company, we need to license one of your patents, but rather than bury you in a mountain of paperwork on you violating our patents, everything from wheels, suspension, seats, doors, windows, etc, let's just do a patent cross-licensing agreement" - this happens in the industry all the time, actually the small newcomers are usually at a disadvantage as their patent portfolios are still young and sparse.

What is preventing the traditional automakers from doing proper OTA is their rigid mindset and processes and lack of vertical integration. These have yielded great profits in the past, and it is very hard to change. Sometimes just nobody wants to go first, as perfectly illustrated with the 48V vehicle architecture. Everyone knew for decades what the advantages would be (less wiring, less weight) but nobody was willing to switch first. Why take the risk, have to convince all the suppliers to switch, etc. if people are buying cars with 12V just fine. It took cybertruck to rattle the cages of automakers, they are all in a rush now to catch up to this "new" decades old technology.

I think your arguments are valid, but there are some other factors at play, such as “human/competitive” factors, that might complicate how things work in practice. For example, patents aren’t always readily swapped — both newcomers and entrenched companies often try to keep the advantages to themselves. Sure, patent cross-licensing happens, but companies aren’t always eager to share what gives them a competitive edge.

Also, newcomers do benefit from old expired patents, especially related to mechanical parts that they might lack, but just like their traditional counterparts, they have to refine along the way. When you throw in consumer resistance to change, the picture becomes even more complex.

Newcomers can innovate more freely because the cost of failure is relatively low for them, whereas established companies can’t take the same risks — they’re accountable to shareholders and risk losing market share if something goes wrong. I agree that apparent complacency/inertia and the lack of vertical integration is a big issue, especially on the tech side. For example, Porsche’s software doesn’t seem to have a dedicated development platform; instead, it’s more of a loosely bundled assortment of third-party software. Even Volkswagen’s effort with Cariad to create a unified software platform for all their brands doesn’t seem to be hitting the mark yet — feels like it’s still a work in progress.

 

[snstevens]

I agree with @whitex & @unbiased - Assuming I don’t purchase a new Taycan before June 2025, I plan to purchase a Porsche extended warranty. I know this will be a good deal better than worrying about cost whenever some aspect of the advanced electronics in my 2021 4s fails.

 

[KLHubb]

I can't agree more....pay the smal(ish)l insurance premium for a boatload of peace of mind, then enjoy a great car with a minimum of angst.

 

[Jonathan S.]

Hey, no fair switching the focus to tech matters -- the OP was asking about economics!

Back to the original inquiry:

I still have my '21 Turbo - haven't really been thinking of selling until recently I just had a big warranty issue with my wife's GLS which is a month out of warranty. With my Taycan warranty ending in April next year - I wonder if it makes sense to sell it before then? I guess two thoughts really:

1) With my luck, it seems risky to keep past warranty.
2) I wonder if resale values would be higher selling it while it still has a warranty?

Anyone have any input - specifically on item #2?

1. The reliability outlook for your MY21 Taycan Turbo is of course not affected by your wife's GLS reliability history. But if that experience has soured you on the psychological shock from unexpected expensive repairs (or even expected expensive repairs!), then as other posters have noted, an extended warranty is the risk-averse solution (even though it will from an expected value perspective cost you more money over time, as opposed to de facto self-insurance against such repairs).

2. To a small extent, yes, but to a large extent in a kind of stepwise manner, then only if you think potential buyers don't realize that the warranty is ending in April next year.

Stepping back from all this, I sure hope that all the posters who think the solution to a four-door German non-SUV that:

a) Starts off with an initially high MSRP.
b) Sees its retail used value decline both rapidly and significantly.
c) Sees is wholesale used value decline rapidly (i.e., the moment it is titled, as with all cars) and especially significantly (given the Porsche a la carte options and the slim Taycan market).

... is to sell it and buy another of the same or similar, really just want an excuse for a MY25 Taycan, and don't think this is anything other than following up on vehicle with a high cost of ownership with yet another vehicle with a high cost of ownership along with timing that maximizes the high cost of ownership for the first vehicle.
(Note that I will be deleting these posts in a few years from now when I might be looking to replace my used MY22 CT with a used MY25 CT and hence will selfishly want to increase the supply of used Taycans!)

 

[amelen]

Lol! To be fair, the Taycan has been the longest I've ever had a car (almost 3.5 years now!). Which says a lot about how good the car is. I really haven't found much to replace it with and am really thinking outside of the box now lol

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

Extending warranty is likely much cheaper than buying a new Taycan Turbo.

Do not underestimate the magic of manmaths. Anything is possible, one just needs creativity. The demonstration/calculus may be difficult to follow for the casual reader, who can be easily dismissed as sucking at mathematics.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

@amelen I’m late to kicking this OTA horse, and @whitex covered everything already. Still, bricking a car via OTA is absolutely not at all the same as having a mechanical failure out of warranty. In this case, MB is providing a service, and that service damaged your property. If they would not be liable for that damage, it would be exceedingly easy to use that mechanism to keep their dealers/servicing facilities in business. “You’re holding it wrong” does not apply here. Glad you were made whole.

 

[whitex]

Do not underestimate the magic of manmaths. Anything is possible, one just needs creativity. The demonstration/calculus may be difficult to follow for the casual reader, who can be easily dismissed as sucking at mathematics.

Let me try:

• Gen 1 resale value will only go down from here, so the longer I wait the less I will get. Every day I wait is costing me money in the trade-in value.
• There are deals available on Gen 1.5 as car sales are down, once the fed cuts the interest rates, lots more customers will want Taycans and we'll be back to $25K ADMs.
• Gen 1 Taycans have a steel battery cover plate which when dented can cost me $72.5K and a lot of frustration. Buying Gen 1.5 gets me a new plate which will probable save me $72.5K.
• Gen 1 has shorter range, so I will probably run out of electrons more often, so Gen 1.5 will save me hundreds in tow truck fee, but probably thousands in potential damages during tow, and of course many hours of anguish.
• My Gen 1 tires will require replacement soon. Gen 1.5 will come with new tires. +$2000 for Gen 1.5
• My Gen 1 is due for service. Gen 1.5 will not require service for 2 years, +$750 for Gen 1.5
• My Gen 1 windshield has some micro-scratches, replacing it would cost thousands, Gen 1.5 comes with new pristine windshield. +16K for Gen 1.5 (glass roof will crack during replacement, so the whole thing will need replacement)
• Gen 1.5 comes with push-to-pass, Gen 1 requires time and money to hack in boost mode outside of LC.
• Gen 1.5 comes with privacy screen, which will prevent the driver from being distracted and getting into a horrible crash, which will require many thousands in health costs in addition to paying a deductible on the car and higher insurance.
• Gen 1.5 will come with fixed brake hoses, so less likely I will get into an accident waiting for Gen 1 recall to be completed.

So in other words "would you rather buy Gen 1.5 or keep Gen 1" is akin to "would you rather be rich and healthy, or poor and sick?". It's a no brainer!

 

[Jonathan S.]

Do not underestimate the magic of manmaths. Anything is possible, one just needs creativity. The demonstration/calculus may be difficult to follow for the casual reader, who can be easily dismissed as sucking at mathematics.

And once you have successfully completed ManMaths 101, you can take ManLogic 101 and ManEconomics 101!

Here is an example of how the complete course sequence can help you:

"You spent how much on a *PORSCHE* EV?!?"​

"It's only fair -- you get to drive a BMW EV."​

"But you bought that for me, and without my knowledge!"​

A short while later:

"Mommy, are you mad at Daddy for buying the Porsche EV?"​

"No, I'm happy Daddy has an EV to drive for all his skiing."​

(This really did happen!)

 

[Jonathan S.]

Let me try:

• Gen 1 resale value will only go down from here, so the longer I wait the less I will get. Every day I wait is costing me money in the trade-in value.
• There are deals available on Gen 1.5 as car sales are down, once the fed cuts the interest rates, lots more customers will want Taycans and we'll be back to $25K ADMs.
• Gen 1 Taycans have a steel battery cover plate which when dented can cost me $72.5K and a lot of frustration. Buying Gen 1.5 gets me a new plate which will probable save me $72.5K.
• Gen 1 has shorter range, so I will probably run out of electrons more often, so Gen 1.5 will save me hundreds in tow truck fee, but probably thousands in potential damages during tow, and of course many hours of anguish.
• My Gen 1 tires will require replacement soon. Gen 1.5 will come with new tires. +$2000 for Gen 1.5 (glass roof will crack during replacement, so the whole thing will need replacement)
• My Gen 1 is due for service. Gen 1.5 will not require service for 2 years, +$750 for Gen 1.5
• My Gen 1 windshield has some micro-scratches, replacing it would cost thousands, Gen 1.5 comes with new pristine windshield. +16K for Gen 1.5
• Gen 1.5 comes with push-to-pass, Gen 1 requires time and money to hack in boost mode outside of LC.
• Gen 1.5 comes with privacy screen, which will prevent the driver from being distracted and getting into a horrible crash, which will require many thousands in health costs in addition to paying a deductible on the car and higher insurance.
• Gen 1.5 will come with fixed brake hoses, so less likely I will get into an accident waiting for Gen 1 recall to be completed.

So in other words "would you rather buy Gen 1.5 or keep Gen 1" is akin to "would you rather be rich and healthy, or poor and sick?". It's a no brainer!

Quoted merely to acknowledge the sheer comic and analytical genius of this post -- HOF forum material!

 

[whitex]

Lol! To be fair, the Taycan has been the longest I've ever had a car (almost 3.5 years now!). Which says a lot about how good the car is. I really haven't found much to replace it with and am really thinking outside of the box now lol

How much out of the box? I hear good things about the Rimac Nevera, which I think would quality as "outside the box" (definitely so for me, if "the box" is my budget). I think it would be worthy replacement for a Taycan Turbo, in terms of fun and excitement.

Since you like the green color on care the "time attack" version might be to your liking - there will only be 12 of those, so no problem with uniqueness, or market getting flooded with used ones, so less worries about resale value tanking.

I

 

[amelen]

How much out of the box? I hear good things about the Rimac Nevera, which I think would quality as "outside the box" (definitely so for me, if "the box" is my budget). I think it would be worthy replacement for a Taycan Turbo, in terms of fun and excitement.

Since you like the green color on care the "time attack" version might be to your liking - there will only be 12 of those, so no problem with uniqueness, or market getting flooded with used ones, so less worries about resale value tanking.

I

LOL! Would be tricky to justify that kind of spend

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