Catching the falling knife...

[Jupeman]

As posted elsewhere, I went to my dealer earlier this month intrigued by the idea of adding a Taycan to my stable. Test drives in a RWD and 4S had me believing these were not just great EVs, they were great cars. I think everyone here agrees that the dynamics are great.

In pondering what to do, I dug in more and found a 6k mile MY20 Turbo S at what seemed like a pretty low price vs. others advertised. This had me reading this forum, Rennlist, and whatever I can find to understand the market a little better. I turn now to this sage group for some extra guidance.

Two concerns with buying any Taycan today, new or used:
1) are they ticking maintenance time bombs, particularly out of warranty (Who here would confidently own this car out of warranty?)
2) Does the rapid, granted normal for a car of this type, depreciation simply not align to concerns around #1 and the evolution of EV tech and Porsche's sophistication with them? In other words, is there even a normal depreciation curve for these or does value go to very low/zero outside of warranty or battery warranty?

All this said, I made an offer on the MY20 Turbo S on Friday that was ~$5k lower than the dealer's offered deal (which was ~$900 better than their listed asking price). Dealer said "nah". Fast forward to Tuesday (today) and the dealer is now down ~$3.5k from their original offer (3.2%). But still above my offer. The fact I've done "not a lot" but respond to emails from the GM has me further doubting the market. This car has lost ~$85 per day in value each of the last three years. The deal as it stands now has one more year of factory warranty plus 3 years CPO (normal CPO and a +1 extra purchased). Effectively the car will be mine with 4 years, unlimited miles warranty.

My ultimate question is assuming one is happy to jump on the depreciation curve, which any current used buyer or new buyer has to be, where is the right place to grab it? Should a somewhat lightly spec'd MY20 Turbo S be under $100k? $110k? $120k?

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[Archimedes]

Probably not the right car for you if depreciation is a concern. You’re trying to estimate a curve that’s never been experienced before. Fool’s errand.

 

[Jupeman]

Probably not the right car for you if depreciation is a concern. You’re trying to estimate a curve that’s never been experienced before. Fool’s errand.

The question is what is the market now. It is an important question for anyone buying new or used.

 

[mcr21]

In UK the falling knife has a significant corporation tax incentive buffer (writing off depreciation, servicing, insurance cost, extended warranty, charging costs, you name it), but even with that I'd second that if this is a real concern then perhaps think twice before buying a Taycan.

Then again, it is a truly fantastic car (a year+ into ownership and still puts a smile on my face) and there are definitely worse things to spend your money on + life is short.

 

[Archimedes]

The question is what is the market now. It is an important question for anyone buying new or used.

The market is what you see out there in the marketplace. Take asking prices, throw out the obviously overpriced outliers, knock 5-7% off the rest to estimate actual sale prices.

Where we go from here in anybody’s guess.

 

[CaliPorsche]

FWIW - not an expert, but with the same filters I was using when looking for a spec'd 4S recently - there are considerably less cars available today in the US than there were 3 months ago..... the CPO car I bought was initially listed at 17% more than I paid for it at the Porsche Dealer (and I paid their sticker price the day they lowered it for the 5th time).....

Further - when looking today I cannot see another car available in NA in the same spec as mine for less money (in fact best is $4k more than I paid) and I signed for mine early July ......

The reality is ... barring a black swan event ...... any car you buy has seen the worst of its depreciation as a percentage of the wholesale/retail value ..... and as the price drops it opens up much more of a buyer market so the residual value will level out ..... and you have a 4 year warranty....

All to say that for used cars under 20k miles MY2020-22 the prices seem to be levelling out this last quarter .....

Focus on finding the spec you want ... and enjoy the ride with the knowledge someone else's wallet has funded the majority of the asset depreciation and you get to benefit from their bad fortune (which they may not give a hoot about BTW).......

again ... not an expert but just a recent buyers observations.....

 

[gtm]

The question is what is the market now. It is an important question for anyone buying new or used.

You need to put the emphasis on "now". The market changed dramatically. Last October I was offered just about what I originally paid for my Model S on a trade for the Taycan. Considering that the delivery date for the Taycan was a total unknown and I would have had to leave the Tesla at the dealer's immediately a trade-in at that time wasn't really feasible. Fast forward 6 months, Taycan has arrived and I'm ready to sell the Tesla. Market is $60,000. Depreciation from new after 3 years was essentially zero (due to a totally screwy market). Depreciation after 3.5 years was suddenly $43,000. If I look at the depreciation after 6 months for the Taycan I might feel ill - except I'm not selling it right now and damn is it nice to drive. No big surprise for an EV. Not a collector car. Battery degrades. Suddenly there is inventory again. You need to decide if the pricing now seems fair to you. Tomorrow things can and will change. Has the depreciation curve flattened for a 2020 Turbo S? You won't know that until some time in the future. Meanwhile you could be enjoying one very nice car.

 

[Redhot2474]

these are not investments, these are depreciating assets , toys. Buy one because you want one and plan on losing another 30%-50% over next 2-3 years. Simple as that …

 

[Jupeman]

Yeah, everyone, I think I confused with the question. Obviously future depreciation, for anything, is unknown. I listed some of the factors that make the Taycan market particularly volatile. I was asking for advice on the value NOW for a MY20 Turbo S. All opinions, of course.

 

[Jupeman]

FWIW - not an expert, but with the same filters I was using when looking for a spec'd 4S recently - there are considerably less cars available today in the US than there were 3 months ago..... the CPO car I bought was initially listed at 17% more than I paid for it at the Porsche Dealer (and I paid their sticker price the day they lowered it for the 5th time).....

Further - when looking today I cannot see another car available in NA in the same spec as mine for less money (in fact best is $4k more than I paid) and I signed for mine early July ......

The reality is ... barring a black swan event ...... any car you buy has seen the worst of its depreciation as a percentage of the wholesale/retail value ..... and as the price drops it opens up much more of a buyer market so the residual value will level out ..... and you have a 4 year warranty....

All to say that for used cars under 20k miles MY2020-22 the prices seem to be levelling out this last quarter .....

Focus on finding the spec you want ... and enjoy the ride with the knowledge someone else's wallet has funded the majority of the asset depreciation and you get to benefit from their bad fortune (which they may not give a hoot about BTW).......

again ... not an expert but just a recent buyers observations.....

This was my theory on the Turbo S and seeing your thread on the 4S inspired me to post this thread. I do think you got a good deal. It seems this target car has lost 46%, excluding what the owner might have spent on tax/tags/fees. We can all be flip about future depreciation, but you have to be fairly well off to shrug a $100k loss on a car in 3 years. Frankly, my largest Porsche buying mistakes (I think I've owned ~14 or 15 so far) was selling at the wrong time. I bought a Turbo 3.6 for $65k once and traded it basically 1:1 for a 964 Cup. No regrets at the time as I campaigned the 964 Cup with great success for many years and sold that for ~3x what I bought it for. But go look at Turbo 3.6 prices now... The fact our Cayenne Turbo S is largely worthless now and is at risk for massive repair bills is irrelevant to me. I bought it used, it had already depreciated like this Taycan Turbo S has, and it has served us for 11 years and 150k miles very very well. I am not new to this, is ultimately what I'm saying. My thread was just to have more sentiment sharing around how tricky this particular market is right now. Thanks for all the feedback. I'm going to see if I can get my original offer met...

 

[Porsche-Guru]

Get your basic spec sorted, fix your top end budget… and then buy the car that you feel good about.
You are getting a relatively new car after all… so quality, battery, etc.. should not be the biggest concern as of now.

If you keep thinking about the depreciation… it will change every time you look at it, because there will always be someone out there buying/ selling cheaper/expensive that what you did.

Value is very much supply/demand. 9 months ago, 2nd hand Taycans were selling for new MSRP; today they are comparable to ICE car’s depreciation.

As for the question…. What is the value now? It is what is available in the market.
A simple search should get you a reasonable range. You are buying a car today…. so plan to pay today’s prices.

Good luck in your hunt…. and hopefully you shall be driving a great car soon….
Something that will put a smile on your face each time you get in … priceless.

 

[Torv]

As posted elsewhere, I went to my dealer earlier this month intrigued by the idea of adding a Taycan to my stable. Test drives in a RWD and 4S had me believing these were not just great EVs, they were great cars. I think everyone here agrees that the dynamics are great.

In pondering what to do, I dug in more and found a 6k mile MY20 Turbo S at what seemed like a pretty low price vs. others advertised. This had me reading this forum, Rennlist, and whatever I can find to understand the market a little better. I turn now to this sage group for some extra guidance.

Two concerns with buying any Taycan today, new or used:
1) are they ticking maintenance time bombs, particularly out of warranty (Who here would confidently own this car out of warranty?)
2) Does the rapid, granted normal for a car of this type, depreciation simply not align to concerns around #1 and the evolution of EV tech and Porsche's sophistication with them? In other words, is there even a normal depreciation curve for these or does value go to very low/zero outside of warranty or battery warranty?

All this said, I made an offer on the MY20 Turbo S on Friday that was ~$5k lower than the dealer's offered deal (which was ~$900 better than their listed asking price). Dealer said "nah". Fast forward to Tuesday (today) and the dealer is now down ~$3.5k from their original offer (3.2%). But still above my offer. The fact I've done "not a lot" but respond to emails from the GM has me further doubting the market. This car has lost ~$85 per day in value each of the last three years. The deal as it stands now has one more year of factory warranty plus 3 years CPO (normal CPO and a +1 extra purchased). Effectively the car will be mine with 4 years, unlimited miles warranty.

My ultimate question is assuming one is happy to jump on the depreciation curve, which any current used buyer or new buyer has to be, where is the right place to grab it? Should a somewhat lightly spec'd MY20 Turbo S be under $100k? $110k? $120k?

Personally, I'd grind the shit out of the dealer.

Used cars typically are far more profitable than new cars and the dealer undoubtedly acquired the Turbo S for at least $10-15K less than they're selling it for. Set your final price, make ‘em squirm and I’ll bet they sell it for what you want to pay.

As for depreciation, I believe the Taycan depreciates more in line with the Panamera and the Cayenne. They definitely don't hold their value like a 911, but maybe someday they will.

 

[Jupeman]

Personally, I'd grind the shit out of the dealer.

Used cars typically are far more profitable than new cars and the dealer undoubtedly acquired the Turbo S for at least $10-15K less than they're selling it for. Set your final price, make ‘em squirm and I’ll bet they sell it for what you want to pay.

As for depreciation, I believe the Taycan depreciates more in line with the Panamera and the Cayenne. They definitely don't hold their value like a 911, but maybe someday they will.

For sure, but these guys have had the car since 2022. They are selling it at a loss now, but their actions suggest they are very desperate. I share that to the community to help in others' negotiations. I don't think this is a good Taycan market.

 

[Studogg22]

I can empathize with your line of thinking as I'm wired the same way: even though we can 'afford' major depreciation, it doesn't feel good. I bought my MY21 Turbo as a CPO in Jan 2023 for about 13% off MSRP (9k mi). I called the dealer back 4 months later this summer after 1k miles of driving and they told me it was worth $50K less on trade at that point. Felt like a kick in the gut, even though it's all on paper. Their advice, which I know others would echo here, is to just drive/enjoy it as much as you can and not think about the market value. I'm doing my best to do just that, but doesn't make it easy to stomach that market timing can easily work against you if your timing is 'off'. I enjoy the car every time I'm in it -- and that feeling covers a multitude of worries. It's when I'm not in the car that the worries return... Wishing you the best as you make your decision. As someone told me, "all the time you mull it over, over-analyze, think things to death, that's a lot of miles you're not enjoying behind the wheel."

 

[annieland]

Yeah, everyone, I think I confused with the question. Obviously future depreciation, for anything, is unknown. I listed some of the factors that make the Taycan market particularly volatile. I was asking for advice on the value NOW for a MY20 Turbo S. All opinions, of course.

The value NOW is something in between, if at all, between what the seller is asking and what you're willing to pay. I don't understand what you're asking. Next month or week is anybody's guess, but as far as today, the dealer already gave you your answer, and your wallet will confirm it.

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