[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[Vercingetorix]

Maybe sell Porsche and buy BYD. Porsche is not alone.
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ehicle-sales-down-12-year-earlier-2025-11-01/

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[whitex]

But Covid buying frenezy is over, and 911s do deprecate now.

What are you talking about. 911's always depreciated. My 2001 911C4 dropped over 50% in 2 years 22 years ago, so not a new phenomenon. Sure. the 911 GT RS series with Porsche's artificially created scarcity were selling well over MSRP, which created an illusion of appreciating asset, but in reality, it simply sold for over MSRP and then dropped every year. Only when you compare it to MSRP does it seem like an investment. Porsche could do the same with Taycans, declare MSRP for all Taycans to be $50K, but all dealers pay more than that for them, so they must sell them $50K-$200K over MSRP. Then someone looking for depreciation data sees a 2 year old Taycan selling for $100K, which is twice MSRP, declares it an investment!

 

[Sar]

What are you talking about. 911's always depreciated. My 2001 911C4 dropped over 50% in 2 years 22 years ago, so not a new phenomenon. Sure. the 911 GT RS series with Porsche's artificially created scarcity were selling well over MSRP, which created an illusion of appreciating asset, but in reality, it simply sold for over MSRP and then dropped every year. Only when you compare it to MSRP does it seem like an investment. Porsche could do the same with Taycans, declare MSRP for all Taycans to be $50K, but all dealers pay more than that for them, so they must sell them $50K-$200K over MSRP. Then someone looking for depreciation data sees a 2 year old Taycan selling for $100K, which is twice MSRP, declares it an investment!

I don't follow the 911 market much, but how certain are you of this truth? I only ask because I've seen countless forum posts and YouTube videos claiming and asserting the 911 as some special case of value retention and to throw shade at the Taycan.

 

[pjg03d]

I don't follow the 911 market much, but how certain are you of this truth? I only ask because I've seen countless forum posts and YouTube videos claiming and asserting the 911 as some special case of value retention and to throw shade at the Taycan.

It seems to depreciate less than any other mass-produced model car but I suspect recent pop-social-media numbers on this have more to do with appreciating cars like the GT3RS carrying a lot of weight for other trims that depreciate significantly. The Taycan is middle-of-the-road in depreciation for EVs on the site I linked.

 

[Wivenhoe]

In terms of reported depreciation it does not necessarily reflect the true depreciation. The depreciation I see is against list price - who orders and buys a Porsche without any options. I would reckon the average options are above 15% so an apparent 50% drop is really 65%

Years ago, I bought a Lexus and the only option available was the colour as you selected a particular derivative of the model and that contained all the options. The salesman came from selling BMW’s and he said Lexus‘s residuals were in truth better than BMW / Porsche / Merc’s as result of this ‘package’ approach but buyers just didn’t think so.

 

[whitex]

In terms of reported depreciation it does not necessarily reflect the true depreciation. The depreciation I see is against list price - who orders and buys a Porsche without any options. I would reckon the average options are above 15% so an apparent 50% drop is really 65%

Years ago, I bought a Lexus and the only option available was the colour as you selected a particular derivative of the model and that contained all the options. The salesman came from selling BMW’s and he said Lexus‘s residuals were in truth better than BMW / Porsche / Merc’s as result of this ‘package’ approach but buyers just didn’t think so.

Same "logic" that was used to publish click-baits how Taycans were selling significantly above MSRP a year ago (selling price with options was compared to base trim MSRP, giving the author, perhaps AI. a click-bait headline).

 

[D00notD00d]

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2025/company/porsche-third-quarter-2025-financial-figures-40833.html

Operating profit -99%!
“Extraordinary expenses of around 2.7 billion euros, including for flexibilisation of the product portfolio and battery activities.”

Return on sales 0.2%, €40m on €26.8bn revenue.

 

[pjg03d]

I don't understand how anyone interprets that as the sky falling around the company, and not that they expect a profitability bounceback next quarter/fiscal year.

 

[D00notD00d]

I don't understand how anyone interprets that as the sky falling around the company, and not that they expect a profitability bounceback next quarter/fiscal year.

Some interpret what they want to believe.
A 99% reduction in operating profit, down to 0.2%, could be interpreted by some as the sky falling in.
I don’t know enough to form an expectation about a return to previous profit levels.

 

[tigerbalm]

Some interpret what they want to believe.
A 99% reduction in operating profit, down to 0.2%, could be interpreted by some as the sky falling in.
I don’t know enough to form an expectation about a return to previous profit levels.

What we do know is the reduced profit (to nearly nil) is due to Porsche taking a one off charge on R&D costs. If nothing else changes in 2026 they'll make a significant return to profit, which is what they are predicting. Even if trading conditions deteriorate across 2026, they are still likely to return a healthy profit.

What is difficult to determine is exactly what they took the one off charge on. But they have hinted its related to EV R&D and battery production (and difficult trading conditions in the key markets of China and USA tariffs).

The results do not show that somehow Porsche is now a profitless business and should give up. The opposite in fact: they are taking a large hit this year to clear up their balance sheet for the next few years.

But this does mean that their execution has to be good from here on out – and they need to predict market forces with better accuracy than they have over the last five years. I'm not sure their shares are "good value" at the moment, but long term I'm a cautious optimist.

Also, maybe as a recent 911 owner, everything I'm hearing from Porsche – just kinda – makes me happy that the sports car range is going to get continuing attention.

 

[Tooney]

Porsche Is Quietly Designing A Monster W Engine With 18 Cylinders And 3 Turbos

 

[D00notD00d]

https://investorrelations.porsche.com/en/financial-information/reports-and-presentations

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...y-production-plans-cellforce-unit-2025-08-25/

I appreciate that the FY25 Q1-3 relative operating profit reduction is due to ‘extraordinary expenses’.
€3.1bn of extraordinary expenses is a very big number.
For context, the entire FY24 operating profit figure was €5.64bn.

Ending the Cellforce battery production plan will be a big part of the R&D write down. Shifting production plans to continue ICE models and development is also an unplanned cost. But reduced revenue and margins due to the impacts from China and the US are not a one-off write down. Those impacts may increase - especially as Chinese designs improve.

Investing in your own battery plant was a ‘bold‘ move. Are any manufacturers doing this without an established partner?

I’m unconvinced by Porsche‘s future plans to ride both EV and ICE wagons, balancing EV quota legislation/fines, increased ICE/PHEV sales, and achieving increased margins per vehicle. Taycan shows that balancing supply, demand and residuals is delicate. Destroy residuals and you destroy new sales.

I‘m unconvinced by plans to upscale the brand. Everyone knows the VW origins. Porsche does not have the heritage and exclusivity of Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Pagani, Bugatti.
Unlike those brands Porsche will not be immune to downturns in the economy. Porsche is mostly a discretionary purchase. Aston Martin never turns a profit.
I‘m unconvinced by Porsche’s ‘something for everyone‘ bounce back pitch to investors. They’ll continue to be blown around by changing politics and market forces.

 

[Tooney]

Porsche crisis weighs on top shareholder's profit
Porsche SE maintained its full-year guidance following its last profit warning in September due to the Porsche strategy overhaul.

The group has said it is exploring defence investments to diversify its portfolio, looking to cash in on a ramp-up in government spending in that area.

While defence companies like Rheinmetall fill their order books, Germany's auto industry is struggling to stay on track amid an expensive transition to EVs, stiff competition from China, tariffs and supply chain shocks.

 

[tigerbalm]

Porsche crisis weighs on top shareholder's profit
Porsche SE maintained its full-year guidance following its last profit warning in September due to the Porsche strategy overhaul.

The group has said it is exploring defence investments to diversify its portfolio, looking to cash in on a ramp-up in government spending in that area.

While defence companies like Rheinmetall fill their order books, Germany's auto industry is struggling to stay on track amid an expensive transition to EVs, stiff competition from China, tariffs and supply chain shocks.

hmmm ....

 

[jk981]

hmmm ....

lol reminds me of the time I took my cayman through a drive through and the girl was like "wow is that a ferrari" and I was like "yes"

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