January Delivery @Jacksonville Port (US Southeast destination)

[Prit]

Lunchtime update. SA is cruising at 15kn. It still is not on a great circle to Halifax. The arrow on the map shows the direction SA is currently traveling.

How does that path make sense? Any thoughts? It’s creating a longer distance from the destination. Is it a weather reason (wind, waves/rough seas, etc.)?

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[Prit]

Electrician just left... all I need now is about a 2000 mile charging cable and I am in business!

I just got my financing from Bank of America lined up. I have 30 days to use it.

 

[Dan1923]

How does that path make sense? Any thoughts? It’s creating a longer distance from the destination. Is it a weather reason (wind, waves/rough seas, etc.)?

It makes sense if after considering wind, wave and who know what that minimizes something like fuel use. The wind and waves going against the ship’s course make it use more fuel than off to the side or behind it.

SA is basically a brand new ship, built in 2020. So it probably has all the latest navigation stuff that gets wind, weather, and wave reports from ECMWF (European weather forecasting system) and GFS (USA weather reporting system) and it automatically plots a course that optimizes whatever they want. ECMWF generates a new report every 12 hours and GFS every 6.

Or maybe the see some weather they want to avoid. SA sticks out of the water a lot, though not quite as much as a cruise ship. So it acts like a sail and the wind can buffet it. If they were carrying iron ore pellets or grain they might not care all that much if the ship go jostled around a bit. But a ships full of Porsches requires a bit more care.

The course they are on delays their arrival at Halifax but it doesn’t change much the length of the great circle route they end up taking to Halifax once they turn onto it.

They are still reporting that they will get into Halifax at 5pm Dec 19. But they can change that any time they want.

 

[Prit]

It makes sense if after considering wind, wave and who know what that minimizes something like fuel use. The wind and waves going against the ship’s course make it use more fuel than off to the side or behind it.

SA is basically a brand new ship, built in 2020. So it probably has all the latest navigation stuff that gets wind, weather, and wave reports from ECMWF (European weather forecasting system) and GFS (USA weather reporting system) and it automatically plots a course that optimizes whatever they want. ECMWF generates a new report every 12 hours and GFS every 8.

Or maybe the see some weather they want to avoid. SA sticks out of the water a lot, though not quite as much as a cruise ship. So it acts like a sail and the wind can buffet it. If they were carrying iron ore pellets or grain they might not care all that much if the ship go jostled around a bit. But a ships full of Porsches requires a bit more care.

The course they are on delays their arrival at Halifax but it doesn’t change much the length of the great circle route they end up taking to Halifax once they turn onto it.

They are still reporting that they will get into Halifax at 5pm Dec 19. But they can change that any time they want.

Great explanation. Thanks (professor)!

 

[DACSarasota]

Have we ruled out first stop in Jax? Heading straight for it.

 

[Dan1923]

Have we ruled out first stop in Jax? Heading straight for it.

There isn't a way to know for sure but we can hope!

But I doubt it . The course heading for Jacksonville is about 280 degrees and SA is currently on a course of 253 degrees.

 

[MohCT4]

Electrician just left... all I need now is about a 2000 mile charging cable and I am in business!

Noooo! Which charger are you using? If you use the standard PMCC you want your ground at 12 o’clock because of the way the cord is designed. Unless you’re getting the charging dock. Then you’re good.

Also, SA is chugging along at 16.2 knots

 

[Dan1923]

Noooo! Which charger are you using? If you use the standard PMCC you want your ground at 12 o’clock because of the way the cord is designed. Unless you’re getting the charging dock. Then you’re good.

Also, SA is chugging along at 16.2 knots

Charging dock

 

[MohCT4]

Charging dock

I was on the fence on the charging dock. What made you decide to pop for it?

 

[Prit]

Folks, I honestly feel like SA is en route to Florida. It's just so interesting how it's not following my route forecast tool on MarineTraffic.com. It's consistently off and suspiciously Florida bound...

 

[Dan1923]

SA is going at 15kn. Both Marine Optima and MarineTraffic report on a course of about 253 degrees which takes it a bit south of Florida.

At present SA is in an area where the waves 15ft. If it turns north to go directly to Halifax it will be going into much higher waves. Those light purple areas are over 50 ft waves. And over the next couple of days those high wave areas will be extend much further south. I don’t know if 50ft waves are significant to a ship the size of SA, but its current course looks like it is try to go around them.

 

[Dan1923]

I did a few quick calculation and if SA is trying to go around those waves it will probably be about three days before it makes it turn to Halifax. If that turns out to be the case it will add three days to all the arrival times I’m showing. So the arrival times would look like:

Which still leaves those of us in Florida with a chance to take delivery before the end of the year.

 

[Dan1923]

So I put on my pretend navigator’s hat and plotted a route for SA that keeps it out of waves great than 25 feet. I made some assumptions here, SA speed is 15 kn and it goes about 400 miles a day.

The maps I made superimpose each days travel over a wave map. Each arrow segment is about 400 miles which is about how far SA goes in a day at 15kn. The numbers next to the arrow are the December day at 7am EST and are the date/time of where SA will be when it reaches the end of the arrow. So the most right arrow says SA will be at the place the arrow is pointing to on Dec 16. SA wants to keep out of the red to purple areas.

This is how I think SA will travel today.

It looks like SA could change to a much more East heading and still not end up in the red area. But look at what happens tomorrow.

This is what things will look like tomorow.

And this is what things will look like on the last leg of course on Dec 23.

So my current guess is that is the SA pulls into Halifax on Dec 24. That would mean Jacksonville on Dec 31

But weather and wave are really hard to predict. We’ll know in the next day or so if SA can make its turn to Halifax earlier.

 

[DACSarasota]

Not looking good for us. My guess is holidays will slow things down at ports.

 

[Prit]

Not looking good for us. My guess is holidays will slow things down at ports.

I know right. I would think holidays means more deliveries/shipments.

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