"How long do electric car batteries last?" - Article

[Tooney]

What 10,000 electric vehicles tell us about EV battery life.

Geotab research shows that EV batteries could last 20 years or more if they degrade at an average rate of 1.8% per year, as we have observed.
. . .
How often do EV batteries need to be replaced?
According to our data, the simple answer is that the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle and will never need to be replaced. If an average EV battery degrades at 1.8% per year, it will still have over 80% state of health after 12 years, generally beyond the usual life of a fleet vehicle.

However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages. We haven’t observed enough batteries reach the end-of-life drop (known as the “heel”) for us to predict when this drop is likely to occur. We will continue monitoring for the expected non-linear degradation.
. . .
Conclusion: Operators can be confident that EV batteries will last as long as they need them.

While EV batteries degrade at different rates depending on model and external conditions, our data indicate that most electric vehicles today have not experienced a significant decline in battery life. In 2019, we assessed the average EV battery degradation rate at 2.3% per year and the rate under ideal climate and charging conditions at an impressive 1.6%. In our most recent research, including many newer models, we found an average rate of 1.8% and the best performers declined only 1% per year or less.

So, how long do electric car batteries last? Numerous factors determine an electric vehicle battery’s lifespan, but on average, EV batteries will outlast the useful life of their vehicle, especially if drivers follow charging and driving best practices.
https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

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[daveo4EV]

https://apple.news/AmvE7eY_SRA6-ifzZz9b5EQ

Stop Worrying About EV Battery Failure

"…Maybe it’s time to stop worrying, according to new research that shows modern EV batteries are likely to last 20 years—or more—before needing to be replaced."

 

[Vim Schrotnock]

What 10,000 electric vehicles tell us about EV battery life.

Geotab research shows that EV batteries could last 20 years or more if they degrade at an average rate of 1.8% per year, as we have observed.
. . .
How often do EV batteries need to be replaced?
According to our data, the simple answer is that the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle and will never need to be replaced. If an average EV battery degrades at 1.8% per year, it will still have over 80% state of health after 12 years, generally beyond the usual life of a fleet vehicle.

However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages. We haven’t observed enough batteries reach the end-of-life drop (known as the “heel”) for us to predict when this drop is likely to occur. We will continue monitoring for the expected non-linear degradation.
. . .
Conclusion: Operators can be confident that EV batteries will last as long as they need them.

While EV batteries degrade at different rates depending on model and external conditions, our data indicate that most electric vehicles today have not experienced a significant decline in battery life. In 2019, we assessed the average EV battery degradation rate at 2.3% per year and the rate under ideal climate and charging conditions at an impressive 1.6%. In our most recent research, including many newer models, we found an average rate of 1.8% and the best performers declined only 1% per year or less.

So, how long do electric car batteries last? Numerous factors determine an electric vehicle battery’s lifespan, but on average, EV batteries will outlast the useful life of their vehicle, especially if drivers follow charging and driving best practices.
https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

Well, I have a problem with this analysis of an 'average rate' of 1.8% per year as it applies to the Taycan. This would mean that the AVERAGE SOH of the Taycan after two years should be 96.4%. I'm not seeing anything close to that number in our SOH data. If you assume a very reasonable 12K mi/yr, our average SOH appears to be less than 90%, which gives 5%/yr in the first two years. It does appear that the curve is flattening out, but to get 80% after 12 years, you would need to have 1%/yr from year 2 onward, which I don't think is happening.

 

[Hirschaj]

Well, I have a problem with this analysis of an 'average rate' of 1.8% per year as it applies to the Taycan. This would mean that the AVERAGE SOH of the Taycan after two years should be 96.4%. I'm not seeing anything close to that number in our SOH data. If you assume a very reasonable 12K mi/yr, our average SOH appears to be less than 90%, which gives 5%/yr in the first two years. It does appear that the curve is flattening out, but to get 80% after 12 years, you would need to have 1%/yr from year 2 onward, which I don't think is happening.

I’ve lost over 10% SoH in just under 2 years (I live in a hot climate). But here’s the thing, I don’t seem to have lost any range. So what does SoH really mean? If I continue to get between 225-250 miles at 100% charge over the next 5 years I’ll be completely happy with whatever my SoH % shows.

 

[Tooney]

Taycans are not one of the models included in the battery tool provided by the article's data compiler. I'd assume Taycans were not part of the study.

 

[Murph7355]

The makers need to start backing their product with warranties that are supported by this data.

Ideally, of course, they just extend what comes with the car. Say 10yrs rather than 8yrs. Blows ICE into the weeds then.

Or, where Porsche are concerned, just allow them to be covered under the extended programme for up to 15yrs at a relatively modest cost.

It'd shut up the naysayers.

 

[Freeewilly]

Well, I have a problem with this analysis of an 'average rate' of 1.8% per year as it applies to the Taycan. This would mean that the AVERAGE SOH of the Taycan after two years should be 96.4%. I'm not seeing anything close to that number in our SOH data. If you assume a very reasonable 12K mi/yr, our average SOH appears to be less than 90%, which gives 5%/yr in the first two years. It does appear that the curve is flattening out, but to get 80% after 12 years, you would need to have 1%/yr from year 2 onward, which I don't think is happening.

EV battery degradation is not liner, the initial drop is higher, it continues to decline at a far more moderate pace.

 

[plamichigan]

What 10,000 electric vehicles tell us about EV battery life.

Geotab research shows that EV batteries could last 20 years or more if they degrade at an average rate of 1.8% per year, as we have observed.
. . .
How often do EV batteries need to be replaced?
According to our data, the simple answer is that the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle and will never need to be replaced. If an average EV battery degrades at 1.8% per year, it will still have over 80% state of health after 12 years, generally beyond the usual life of a fleet vehicle.

However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages. We haven’t observed enough batteries reach the end-of-life drop (known as the “heel”) for us to predict when this drop is likely to occur. We will continue monitoring for the expected non-linear degradation.
. . .
Conclusion: Operators can be confident that EV batteries will last as long as they need them.

While EV batteries degrade at different rates depending on model and external conditions, our data indicate that most electric vehicles today have not experienced a significant decline in battery life. In 2019, we assessed the average EV battery degradation rate at 2.3% per year and the rate under ideal climate and charging conditions at an impressive 1.6%. In our most recent research, including many newer models, we found an average rate of 1.8% and the best performers declined only 1% per year or less.

So, how long do electric car batteries last? Numerous factors determine an electric vehicle battery’s lifespan, but on average, EV batteries will outlast the useful life of their vehicle, especially if drivers follow charging and driving best practices.
https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

This, and unfortunately some other reports on the alleged longevity of BEVs and their batteries, are seriously flawed.

Here is the conclusion (in the headline statement): "Geotab research shows that EV batteries could last 20 years or more if they degrade at an average rate of 1.8% per year, as we have observed."

Here is the problem: the website admits they only had about 5 years of data, and further note both the following:
--degradation is not linear
--their data doesn't include the "heel" where degradation is faster.

Thus, there is no data to support the claim that batteries are likely to outlast the cars, or last 20 years. If you observe the "if" statement in the conclusion, and know how to do math, you realize they are actually making a statement about a line on a graph, not batteries in your car.

I don't blame them for bragging about their data, which (again, according to them) ranges for about 5 years. But they shouldn't state a conclusion about 10 and 15 years into the future when they admit they have no data to support it given their admission of "non-linear" degradation.

I've owned a Taycan now for 4 years. My battery as a whole won't make 20 years, as some cells are now being replaced. With the repairs I think it will probably make the 8 years in the warranty, and probably more. However, I only have 4 years of data. My conjecture about 8 years or more is a conjecture, but isn't something I can observe from data.

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