EV's vs PHEV's - what makes sense in the next 10 years?

[pjg03d]

Are you serious? Just look up any dependability study on EVs vs ICE. EVs are consistently at the bottom when it comes to reliability. And the cost to repair and replace a battery is well known.

EVs are getting better (both with battery costs coming down, some ability to repair individual cells, and reliability). But there’s still a gap.

Didn’t think I was doing anything but pointing out the obvious well known stuff. Gas engines may have a lot of parts, but they’re actually pretty simple machines and easy to work on and replace individual components.

There’s a reason why every corner has a car mechanic on it and a lot of people work on them at home as a hobby.

When stuff goes mostly electric? They become disposable.

It’s why there USED to be appliance repair shops on every corner and now you’d be lucky to find a single one anywhere in your town.

Dependability studies for EVs are often incorporating vehicles over the last ~15 years including the Nissan Leafs that did not include active cooling of the batteries. How data is represented matters, also - reliability studies often include all recalls, while straight up 'how often do these vehicles break down' numbers may tell a different story. We are also seeing manufacturers rapidly improve on dependability numbers once they are in the space - Tesla's breakdown numbers, however loathe I am to admit, are pretty great. I think in another decade, EVs will easily rank head and shoulders above ICE vehicles in terms of dependability.

Battery costs for recent models in the US and any country enforcing a battery warranty don't seem to be a huge issue to be honest. Either the battery is going to fail early and inside the warranty period, or last a very long time over many miles.

Mechanics shops are on corners and there are many hobbyists because ICE technology has proliferated for a century, and the engines *require* a fair amount of work. As EVs have time to also proliferate, so will shops that work on them. Hobbyist work will likely be less of a thing, because there isn't much to work on at home. I also think comparing appliance repair to cars is a bit of a red herring; appliance repair went out because the cost to repair (mostly labor) has surpassed the cost of just buying new. This is more a factor of manufacturing becoming automated, global supply chains suppressing pricing, etc. When a fridge repair was a fraction of the cost of buying a new one it made sense to repair it.

I am also concerned with the disposability of EVs as they age, but this is also a problem with current ICE vehicles as well. Average age of an ICE vehicle on the road is about 12-15 years and 200k miles before they are junked/end of life; EVs made in the last 5 years should be pretty competitive or frankly easily surpass that average lifespan at least from a mechanical operating perspective. Tesla has proven that once battery issues are mostly resolved, the vehicles can just run for a very, very long time.

I think cost for battery replacement will come down as recycling amps up, if we continue and encourage buildout of battery factories in the US. This is really the only major factor that will age EVs outside of consumer preferences like updated in-car tech; if battery replacement out of warranty becomes a reasonable cost, there's no reason to junk an otherwise serviceable vehicle. Average cost for a new vehicle in the US is over $50k now, used vehicles over $30k - if you have to choose between those costs and an $8k battery replacement (that might even upgrade range and charging speed?!) the choice becomes a bit easier. I am hoping when it comes time for me to make that choice with my Taycan, I can dump a new battery in it affordably and drive another 300k miles.

But again, this is partially a political issue, that requires governments to support industries moving in that direction while helping persuade consumers. EV tech is also still relatively in its infancy, there are a million articles a week about new battery tech emerging, etc etc.

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[f1eng]

PHEV batteries will have shorter lifespans than EV's because of the reasons above, but they should last the warrantee period (8 years), and if not they can be replaced for a fraction of of the EV cost.

FWIW.
My first Hybrid is 20 years old now and still being used daily on its original traction battery.
My wife's PHEV is 13 years old and still on its original battery, which is at around 80% original capacity.

 

[kempez]

We ran a PHEV - XC90 T8 for 4 years. At first we were very happy with it. It seemed to run a lot of journeys electric and we got decent MPG (blended), as a result. It was never a bad car for sure (classic Volvo).

However, our use case is basically that most journeys are small and local. But we go approximately 40-100 miles every other week with kids football games. This meant that the electric part of the hybrid became more and more useless as time went on. Coupled with the fact that it only did 30 miles on electric-only...it became more and more annoying to use. And our local runs usually added up to ~20 miles on 3-4 days per week. This meant plugging it in every day which was even more annoying.

So we've moved to 2 BEV's now and we're finding this is just a whole lot better. We have solar panels/batteries as well which makes EV more appealing too (in summer).

So I think it does depend on use case but this experience has set PHEV as the worst of both worlds for me personally

 

[Dee]

In 20-30 years there are workshops which are specialized in battery refurbishment, software and general EV maintenance.
The price of a battery and/or cells will go down fast.
An electric motor doesn't need service, it'll last a billion kilometers.
You'll bring your classic Taycan (first generation has gone up in value quite a bit!) and they'll replace your tired battery pack from 2020 with a SoH of 62% back to 200% cuz there will be cells with twice the capacity.
It's a €8.000 well spend!
They will update the software to accommodate that new 800 km battery pack and your Taycan has its original power back, 800+ hp and people feel sorry they didn't buy a Taycan back in 2030 when they were cheap!

 

[Dee]

Oh, and in 2045 a Prius is auctioned but it didn't meet the reserve.
No sale.

 

[69Mach390]

Dependability studies for EVs are often incorporating vehicles over the last ~15 years including the Nissan Leafs that did not include active cooling of the batteries. How data is represented matters, also - reliability studies often include all recalls, while straight up 'how often do these vehicles break down' numbers may tell a different story. We are also seeing manufacturers rapidly improve on dependability numbers once they are in the space - Tesla's breakdown numbers, however loathe I am to admit, are pretty great. I think in another decade, EVs will easily rank head and shoulders above ICE vehicles in terms of dependability.

Battery costs for recent models in the US and any country enforcing a battery warranty don't seem to be a huge issue to be honest. Either the battery is going to fail early and inside the warranty period, or last a very long time over many miles.

Mechanics shops are on corners and there are many hobbyists because ICE technology has proliferated for a century, and the engines *require* a fair amount of work. As EVs have time to also proliferate, so will shops that work on them. Hobbyist work will likely be less of a thing, because there isn't much to work on at home. I also think comparing appliance repair to cars is a bit of a red herring; appliance repair went out because the cost to repair (mostly labor) has surpassed the cost of just buying new. This is more a factor of manufacturing becoming automated, global supply chains suppressing pricing, etc. When a fridge repair was a fraction of the cost of buying a new one it made sense to repair it.

I am also concerned with the disposability of EVs as they age, but this is also a problem with current ICE vehicles as well. Average age of an ICE vehicle on the road is about 12-15 years and 200k miles before they are junked/end of life; EVs made in the last 5 years should be pretty competitive or frankly easily surpass that average lifespan at least from a mechanical operating perspective. Tesla has proven that once battery issues are mostly resolved, the vehicles can just run for a very, very long time.

I think cost for battery replacement will come down as recycling amps up, if we continue and encourage buildout of battery factories in the US. This is really the only major factor that will age EVs outside of consumer preferences like updated in-car tech; if battery replacement out of warranty becomes a reasonable cost, there's no reason to junk an otherwise serviceable vehicle. Average cost for a new vehicle in the US is over $50k now, used vehicles over $30k - if you have to choose between those costs and an $8k battery replacement (that might even upgrade range and charging speed?!) the choice becomes a bit easier. I am hoping when it comes time for me to make that choice with my Taycan, I can dump a new battery in it affordably and drive another 300k miles.

But again, this is partially a political issue, that requires governments to support industries moving in that direction while helping persuade consumers. EV tech is also still relatively in its infancy, there are a million articles a week about new battery tech emerging, etc etc.

We must be looking at different dependability studies. I’m not looking at cars from 15 years ago. I’m looking at 3 year dependability studies for NEW cars.

The top selling brand by far here (Tesla) has moved up from last place for years in a row, to “4th from last.”

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...mps-overall-tesla-stays-4th-from-last.341217/

2nd highest selling model (my last car, Mach E) doesn’t fair much better. Neither does my current car (Taycan).

Of the reasons to go EV, dependability is definitely in the “CON” category at the moment. They’re making progress, but 4th from last is hardly a “PRO.”

As far as politics go, it’s pretty easy to point out the anti-EV politics of the current admin. But people haven’t “voted with their wallets” much differently in 2025 vs during the pro-EV admin of 2024.

 

[Wivenhoe]

I’m not sure that this Forum is the right place to defend reliability of EV’s !

That said, I think a lot of the problems with EV’s are software related (ignoring Taycan battery issues) rather than mechanical / system issues. In the future I very much doubt the ’independents’ and corner garages will be able to deal with these issues in the way they maintain ICE’s
I had a problem with my Lexus EV and the AA guy said they were locked out of most of the diagnostic software as Lexus were ensuring most roadside breakdowns had to be returned to the dealer - no problem in warranty but after ?

 

[CrazyINP]

even the current shops are getting out of business as they can't keep up with all the new SW on ICE cars. Just buying the right equipment that is getting more and more specialized by the brands is getting pretty expensive

 

[Zcd1]

Are you serious? Just look up any dependability study on EVs vs ICE. EVs are consistently at the bottom when it comes to reliability. And the cost to repair and replace a battery is well known.

EVs are getting better (both with battery costs coming down, some ability to repair individual cells, and reliability). But there’s still a gap.

Didn’t think I was doing anything but pointing out the obvious well known stuff. Gas engines may have a lot of parts, but they’re actually pretty simple machines and easy to work on and replace individual components.

There’s a reason why every corner has a car mechanic on it and a lot of people work on them at home as a hobby.

When stuff goes mostly electric? They become disposable.

It’s why there USED to be appliance repair shops on every corner and now you’d be lucky to find a single one anywhere in your town.

I’m still thinking you must be trolling, but even if you aren’t, there’s clearly no point in continuing this discussion with you…

Enjoy your car(s)..

 

[69Mach390]

I’m still thinking you must be trolling, but even if you aren’t, there’s clearly no point in continuing this discussion with you…

Enjoy your car(s)..

Trolling involves making outlandish statements to get people to react.

I pointed out well known facts backed up by data (the JD power dependability study that I linked).

What you are doing is known as a simple ad hominem logical fallacy. Insult the person instead of sticking to the facts. If that’s how you prefer to debate, I don’t mind if you bow out.

If you have some counterpoints and data to back it up, I don’t mind having a civil discussion.

 

[69Mach390]

I’m not sure that this Forum is the right place to defend reliability of EV’s !

That said, I think a lot of the problems with EV’s are software related (ignoring Taycan battery issues) rather than mechanical / system issues. In the future I very much doubt the ’independents’ and corner garages will be able to deal with these issues in the way they maintain ICE’s
I had a problem with my Lexus EV and the AA guy said they were locked out of most of the diagnostic software as Lexus were ensuring most roadside breakdowns had to be returned to the dealer - no problem in warranty but after ?

For sure software bugs are a lot of it. I’ll take a blank screen over being stuck on the side of the road.

The hard part is that some of the bugs result in you getting stuck on the side of the road. Or even worse they use cool tech (like buttons to open the doors) but you can get completely locked out with a simple dead 12v battery and can’t even jump the car to get going.

I’ve had cars that had 12v batteries die before. Never had to flat tow as a result of one. Luckily that didn’t happen to me, but was common for the Mach E (my last car). I preemptively replaced mine at 3 years out of caution.

If a dependability study separated out minor quirks (stuff just not responding properly) with major problems (requiring a tow or trip to the dealership), I would be curious to hear the results.

 

[Zcd1]

Trolling involves making outlandish statements to get people to react.

I pointed out well known facts backed up by data (the JD power dependability study that I linked).

What you are doing is known as a simple ad hominem logical fallacy. Insult the person instead of sticking to the facts. If that’s how you prefer to debate, I don’t mind if you bow out.

If you have some counterpoints and data to back it up, I don’t mind having a civil discussion.

I never insulted you.

The fact that you’re citing J.D Power as an “authority” is further evidence that there’s no point in continuing to engage with you on this.

 

[69Mach390]

I never insulted you.

The fact that you’re citing J.D Power as an “authority” is further evidence that there’s no point in continuing to engage with you on this.

Not many take “troll” as a compliment.

JD power is an authority on dependability studies. Has been for decades.

At least this time you chose to insult JD Power instead of me. You’re making progress!

 

[Wivenhoe]

The problem with 12v batteries affect far more ICE ‘self charging’ hybrid cars than EV’s. Toyota is renowned for it - they shrank the size of the battery as in hybrids it doesn’t start the car. There is no alternator, it’s charged from the very small EV battery and if journeys are short and and on ’EV mode’ the battery doesn’t get a charge. They advise running the car for 30 mins every week at home if the trips are short or car laid up.
Lexus use the same very small 12v battery on its EV and after being locked out, they gave me a solar charger to plug in a leave it on the dash if leaving the car unused for more than a week. They didn’t have an answer when I said that wouldn’t help if the car was parked in a multi storey whilst away on business or holiday !

 

[Dee]

The problem with hybrids is that in most cases you can't tell how much km are on the ice.
Most people want to use the EV part of a hybrid cuz it's comfortable, easy to use and cheap.
It's ideal to do the groceries, short distances.
However, they forget that if you don't use the ice on a regular base or you don't let it run on a proper temperature, it'll ruin the ice sooner or later (or at least has problems/issues).

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