Following the battery cells changed: Do you still trust your Taycan J1.1

[TaYcanAficionado]

you say 1 out of 5 or even 1 out of 4 taycans have or will have a battery problem - that is in deed scary, as it would mean 20,000 - 30,000 cars. The car's already been around for almost 7 years; I have signicant reservations about whether the number of affected cars is really that big (20 or 25%) but I don't have proof to make a case that contradicts your numbers.

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[prj]

you say 1 out of 5 or even 1 out of 4 taycans have or will have a battery problem - that is in deed scary, as it would mean 20,000 - 30,000 cars. The car's already been around for almost 7 years; I have signicant reservations about whether the number of affected cars is really that big (20 or 25%) but I don't have proof to make a case that contradicts your numbers.

It does not mean that this number of cars is broken at the same time, but this is the scale of the problem.

As I said - GM replaced the batteries on ALL Spark EV's because the problem is so widespread. On the Spark EV's the battery design meant that the cars had a high chance of actively catching fire (and 13 cars did in a short amount of time).

The Taycan modular design is a lot more robust to these failures, so they're trying to replace only the affected modules.

It is a very big problem and headache at Porsche. From a technical, financial as well as a reputation perspective.

That said - I would wager that the more important metric that we do not have is MBTF. Is the MBTF low enough that all the affected cells will be replaced in all cars after 8 years pass? Or not?

The other 2 huge issues are the heater and the 22kW battery charger.
Together with the battery almost every J1.1 Taycan is affected by one of these issues (or even multiple of them).

 

[TaYcanAficionado]

mine had the heater problem before I bought it; luckly no 22kw charger on mine and therefore no problems there.
Now whether all J1.1 taycans prove to have a defective battery only time will tell... let's just hope that Porsche doesn't leave anyone uncovered if they fact battery problems after warranty runs out...

 

[prj]

I doubt all of them will have problems, but a much higher percentage than is floated here.
And yes, I really hope that the affected cells fail before the warranty runs out, otherwise these cars will be selling for scrap value after the warranty is done.

I plan on driving my J1.2 for at least 6-7 years, I love the car.

 

[Dee]

but I don't have proof to make a case that contradicts your numbers.

He doesn't have actual numbers.
It's hearsay.
The only actual data is provided by Cris in this thread.
The rest is just guessing and speculating.
We just don't know.
Some on this forum just feel superior in guessing.
I'm only looking at actual and available data.
In this thread most batteries are perfectly fine but the actual data shows it's around 2%.
That's all we know, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[prj]

He doesn't have actual numbers.
It's hearsay.
The only actual data is provided by Cris in this thread.
The rest is just guessing and speculating.
We just don't know.
Some on this forum just feel superior in guessing.
I'm only looking at actual and available data.
In this thread most batteries are perfectly fine but the actual data shows it's around 2%.
That's all we know, nothing more, nothing less.

You still don't understand statistics.
That data shows you that during a small window there were 2% cars with bad isolation (aka fire risk).
It does not say anything about how many cars had issues before and how many cars have issues after. Certainly this says that the cars that had or will have problems is significantly higher than that floated percentage.
Furthermore the sample size is very small, so essentially this doesn't mean much, as the P value is far too low to draw any conclusions.

I will trust the contact at Porsche.

Finally it's funny considering your own car had a battery cell failure you keep shilling so hard for LG Chem's failure and Porsche's flawed damage control.

The very poll on this forum, shows 18% had battery issues:
https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/j1-1-taycan-high-voltage-battery-reliability-survey.30791/

But of course this data is then probably "irrelevant" for you because it shows a higher percentage than is comfortable for you.
Btw, Cris' software does not detect the battery module level failures caused by at least half the defects, as the failures are sudden, not gradual.

But hey, yes, even if 49% fail and 51% are OK, then technically "most batteries are perfectly fine"

 

[Ronglos]

It does not mean that this number of cars is broken at the same time, but this is the scale of the problem.

As I said - GM replaced the batteries on ALL Spark EV's because the problem is so widespread. On the Spark EV's the battery design meant that the cars had a high chance of actively catching fire (and 13 cars did in a short amount of time).

The Taycan modular design is a lot more robust to these failures, so they're trying to replace only the affected modules.

It is a very big problem and headache at Porsche. From a technical, financial as well as a reputation perspective.

That said - I would wager that the more important metric that we do not have is MBTF. Is the MBTF low enough that all the affected cells will be replaced in all cars after 8 years pass? Or not?

The other 2 huge issues are the heater and the 22kW battery charger.
Together with the battery almost every J1.1 Taycan is affected by one of these issues (or even multiple of them).

Just to get the facts straight the battery exchange was for the Bolt EV and if my Taycan stays as problem free as my Bolt I will be quit pleased. Too much arrogance in pricy cars.

 

[prj]

Just to get the facts straight the battery exchange was for the Bolt EV and if my Taycan stays as problem free as my Bolt I will be quit pleased. Too much arrogance in pricy cars.

Bolt, not spark, yes. Freudian slip.
Those cars have the same issue as the Taycan though, and on the Taycan there was not a full battery replacement done.

 

[damich44]

I have 2020 4S. Zero battery problems until a month ago. Now two tows in and won’t have car back for months. Funny how I was in the camp of ‘people with battery issues are probably small but loud minority’, and am now more on the side of ‘maybe these are eventually all going to fail and the car is essentially worthless once it’s beyond 8 yrs old’.

 

[Dee]

I will trust the contact at Porsche.

That's hearsay, like I said.

Finally it's funny considering your own car had a battery cell failure

It didn't fail and I'm quite annoyed by your many assumptions and insinuations.
Only thing I'm pointing at is that we don't have a good picture of the actual problem.
The only thing we have is the actual data from Cris and your hearsay.
I'm not even drawing conclusions here so I don't know why you keep on saying I don't understand statistics.
The only actual data and statistics we have are from Cris, those aren't even mine.
Maybe you're not the best at comprehensive reading.

 

[prj]

The only actual data and statistics we have are from Cris, those aren't even mine.

Oh, so the data on the forum that shows 18% failure rate does not exist, how convenient

 

[Dee]

Oh, so the data on the forum that shows 18% failure rate does not exist, how convenient

I'm not that good in statistics but how come that over 1000 participants (tCan-PRO scans) show an actual 2% failure rate and only 239 participants on this forum show an 18% cell replacement which wasn't even a problem (yet)?
Or is it just convient for you as well?

I think we can agree there are issues which should be addressed by Porsche and I think they are trying to.
You may or may not like the way Porsche is doing things but hé, at least they do something.
I'm enjoying my car and I'm still trusting it, after 6 years already.
I'm with the 18%.
Or rather the 98%, the lucky "few", I really don't care.

 

[prj]

I'm not that good in statistics but how come that over 1000 participants (tCan-PRO scans) show an actual 2% failure rate and only 239 participants on this forum show an 18% cell replacement which wasn't even a problem (yet)?

That's why I keep saying you don't understand the statistics. These two things show completely different parameters.
1. The tcan-PRO scan does not really have a logic to report that modules were replaced in the past.
2. The delta voltage difference depends on SoC and whether rebalancing was carried out
3. The time interval of those 1000 scans is about half a year, so it just shows that in the last year out of the 1000 cars scanned there was a higher voltage delta on some of them, but it does not tell you if cells were replaced in the past.

Whereas the forum survey is a completely different metric:
1. It objectively says whether modules or pack were replaced.
2. The data by definition reaches all the way into the past, so anyone who's had a car and had modules replaced will increase the percentage, all the way 5+ years back.

If there was 2% with bad delta in half a year, and of course people don't scan their car when the battery has already failed (you can't because the 12V goes flat almost instantly), then you can multiply this number by at least 8 times if you want anywhere near the number of failure since 2020.

The whole failure here is comparing something accumulative over half a year vs 6 years. In fact the stats show pretty much the exact same thing. Having over 2% with bad delta in just half a year is very high.

So by using this metric you can at best conclude that at any given time there are 1-2% Taycans that have batteries about to fail due to the failures that cause increased gradual degradation. However, it does not cover the failures that occur suddenly, which is over half of them, e.g. the full tab separation - it's fine until it separates completely.
Nor does it tell you anything about cars that already had work done. A car with half the modules replaced some time back or a new battery is not going to show as bad on the tcan pro scan, but will count for the forum stats.

Hence why your tcan-pro scan result is good, but you're a part of the 18% on the forum who have had work done on their car.
And I don't think that this forum somehow magically attracts people who have battery issues more than those who don't.

Essentially the metric is how many batteries are showing signs of developing an issue right now vs how many batteries have ever had an issue, hence why the result is wildly different.

As more time passes, both the tcanpro percentage and the forum percentage (if the poll was open and allow changing the vote) would keep going up and up and converge.

 

[StamStam]

That's why I keep saying you don't understand the statistics. These two things show completely different parameters.
1. The tcan-PRO scan does not really have a logic to report that modules were replaced in the past.
2. The delta voltage difference depends on SoC and whether rebalancing was carried out
3. The time interval of those 1000 scans is about half a year, so it just shows that in the last year out of the 1000 cars scanned there was a higher voltage delta on some of them, but it does not tell you if cells were replaced in the past.

Whereas the forum survey is a completely different metric:
1. It objectively says whether modules or pack were replaced.
2. The data by definition reaches all the way into the past, so anyone who's had a car and had modules replaced will increase the percentage, all the way 5+ years back.

If there was 2% with bad delta in half a year, and of course people don't scan their car when the battery has already failed (you can't because the 12V goes flat almost instantly), then you can multiply this number by at least 8 times if you want anywhere near the number of failure since 2020.

The whole failure here is comparing something accumulative over half a year vs 6 years. In fact the stats show pretty much the exact same thing. Having over 2% with bad delta in just half a year is very high.

So by using this metric you can at best conclude that at any given time there are 1-2% Taycans that have batteries about to fail due to the failures that cause increased gradual degradation. However, it does not cover the failures that occur suddenly, which is over half of them, e.g. the full tab separation - it's fine until it separates completely.
Nor does it tell you anything about cars that already had work done. A car with half the modules replaced some time back or a new battery is not going to show as bad on the tcan pro scan, but will count for the forum stats.

Hence why your tcan-pro scan result is good, but you're a part of the 18% on the forum who have had work done on their car.
And I don't think that this forum somehow magically attracts people who have battery issues more than those who don't.

Essentially the metric is how many batteries are showing signs of developing an issue right now vs how many batteries have ever had an issue, hence why the result is wildly different.

As more time passes, both the tcanpro percentage and the forum percentage (if the poll was open and allow changing the vote) would keep going up and up and converge.

So if i understand correctly, even if we regularly check the battery cell voltage and all look normal, it can suddenly die ??

 

[prj]

So if i understand correctly, even if we regularly check the battery cell voltage and all look normal, it can suddenly die ??

Correct.

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