A perfect metaphor for Porsche today

[RBGtaycan]

God, I have to consider myself lucky. My dealer in Newport Beach, CA has been close to perfect. The only thing that took a long time was replacing my portable charger that failed. It took over 6 months to clear the backlog but when it arrived they showered me with Porsche swag (hats, sweaters, coffee thermoses, etc).
The longest I wait to get an appointment is 2 weeks to get a loaner and the longest they’ve ever kept the vehicle was 2 weeks.
I hope if I ever have anything major to be done like a HV battery or a cracked glass roof they will do the job as well as the factory.
I don’t mind if they’re more expensive than 3rd party shops as long as their work is second to none so I can count on them for solid repairs of the highest quality.

You may have found a good dealer and/or be aided by California's relatively high adoption rate for EVs.

Ultimately the EV is going to win. I used to think all it would take is more chargers. But I have come to realize that service has to adapt too. More Techs. Less dealer resistance. More manufacturer support.

It's still a long game that is hurt, for the time being in the US, by diminished government support.

Sadly, when that perks up (in a couple of years? November 2028?), we will be so far behind China (and possibly Europe), that their rear lights may not even be visible.

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[Gino]

You may have found a good dealer and/or be aided by California's relatively high adoption rate for EVs.

Ultimately the EV is going to win. I used to think all it would take is more chargers. But I have come to realize that service has to adapt too. More Techs. Less dealer resistance. More manufacturer support.

It's still a long game that is hurt, for the time being in the US, by diminished government support.

Sadly, when that perks up (in a couple of years? November 2028?), we will be so far behind China (and possibly Europe), that their rear lights may not even be visible.

Keep the faith. I hope Porsche will find their way…

 

[Fish Fingers]

You may have found a good dealer and/or be aided by California's relatively high adoption rate for EVs.

Ultimately the EV is going to win. I used to think all it would take is more chargers. But I have come to realize that service has to adapt too. More Techs. Less dealer resistance. More manufacturer support.

It's still a long game that is hurt, for the time being in the US, by diminished government support.

Sadly, when that perks up (in a couple of years? November 2028?), we will be so far behind China (and possibly Europe), that their rear lights may not even be visible.

Coal is where its at for you.
Its the future!
It is both beautiful and clean apparently.

I must ask the wife to change all the Acqua di Parma soap in the house for a lump of coal, as we must be wasting a fortune.

 

[RBGtaycan]

Porsche is on very shaky ground in terms of quality, reliability and serviceability.
I no longer look at Porsche as the pinnacle of flawless German engineering. Instead it’s now devolved down to “hit or miss” German engineering Porsche expects you to roll the dice to determine when every owner will eventually get flogged by some ridiculous repair down the road. My 2021 Taycan may very well end up being a glorified show car that spends more time parked than driven. Very sad state of affairs for Porsche. My dealer is fantastic but the core Porsche product offerings are riddled with engineering flaws or intentional parts failure timing which are cancers eating away at the Porsche brand.

I realized I did not "own" my Taycan I was paying THEM to be a BETA tester..ugh

 

[Gino]

I realized I did not "own" my Taycan I was paying THEM to be a BETA tester..ugh

That’s definitely a way to look at it. I bought my Taycan CPO after considering all the issues against the purchase vs the absolute beauty of the most attractive sports sedan ever built and decided to become part of the experiment. Now I have skin in the game rooting for the Porsche family to figure out how to save their reputation and get back on solid ground. If they don’t succeed then I’ll be too old or dead in another 15-20 years and it won’t matter to me…

 

[gamueller]

I’ll be too old or dead in another 15-20 years and it won’t matter to me…

That's the spirit!

 

[RBGtaycan]

That's the spirit!

Gotta say you have a (hopefully) long-term view!

 

[Gino]

Gotta say you have a (hopefully) long-term view!

I don’t have much of a choice. Trying to look at the long term view in the hope Porsche will get back to their historic form for quality & high performance.

 

[Porsche-Guru]

…..we will be so far behind China (and possibly Europe), that their rear lights may not even be visible.

The EV battle has already been lost… not just by Porsche, but by almost every European manufacturer to the Chinese EV market.
And even those times when people derided Chinese cars is long gone as well.

Just see the Chinese release and update cycle. New models are coming out 3-5 times quicker than the Europeans can do a facelift - so the rear lights are already quite dim….

I just hope the ICE market remains for longer… so at least Porsche remains in the space….

 

[Gino]

The EV battle has already been lost… not just by Porsche, but by almost every European manufacturer to the Chinese EV market.
And even those times when people derided Chinese cars is long gone as well.

Just see the Chinese release and update cycle. New models are coming out 3-5 times quicker than the Europeans can do a facelift - so the rear lights are already quite dim….

I just hope the ICE market remains for longer… so at least Porsche remains in the space….

You may well be right but there is no need to throw in the towel quite yet.
The US & Europe need to learn how to compete with China just as the Japanese kicked the US & Europe’s asses in traditional ICE vehicles in the 1980s. It’s an engineering problem that can be overcome but as competition becomes more and more fierce the margins become smaller & smaller.
I remember when the Acura NSX went head to head with Ferrari in the 1990s to prove a high performance sports car could be built to be reliable. Ferrari made everything by hand which led to unreliability. Acura used far more accurate automated machining methods to produce the highest quality parts, cheaper & led to a more reliable platform.
The result was the Acura NSX which was 1/3 the cost but matched or outperformed the Ferrari in every category except flat out acceleration.
Japan forced Ferrari to be better and they instituted many of the same production techniques & equipment to improve their quality.
Ferrari used to say there is always some level of unreliability in a hand made performance car. Honda proved Ferrari wrong. Today Ferrari is better because of Japan.
China will force Europe & the US as well as Japan & Korea to be better or die.
I believe Porsche can certainly compete with China.
I work in the semiconductor industry where China is always trying to beat the west. They make the cheapest devices but not the highest performance devices. They are catching up but if the west does not continue to innovate then our margins will suffer as well. I am helping startups outside of China to leapfrog any technology China is working on today to overtake the west in consumer, industrial or defense electronics.
The competitive landscape will surely tighten but once everyone is in the same playing field it means that all margins for all companies will tighten.
Low volume high margin vehicles will always have their place but the high volume vehicles which make the real money for auto manufacturers operate on very slim margins.
Chinese ICE & EV vehicles will force the rest of the world to make better, more reliable, cost competitive products for the masses.

 

[RBGtaycan]

The EV battle has already been lost… not just by Porsche, but by almost every European manufacturer to the Chinese EV market.
And even those times when people derided Chinese cars is long gone as well.

Just see the Chinese release and update cycle. New models are coming out 3-5 times quicker than the Europeans can do a facelift - so the rear lights are already quite dim….

I just hope the ICE market remains for longer… so at least Porsche remains in the space….

You may well be right but there is no need to throw in the towel quite yet.
The US & Europe need to learn how to compete with China just as the Japanese kicked the US & Europe’s asses in traditional ICE vehicles in the 1980s. It’s an engineering problem that can be overcome but as competition becomes more and more fierce the margins become smaller & smaller.
I remember when the Acura NSX went head to head with Ferrari in the 1990s to prove a high performance sports car could be built to be reliable. Ferrari made everything by hand which led to unreliability. Acura used far more accurate automated machining methods to produce the highest quality parts, cheaper & led to a more reliable platform.
The result was the Acura NSX which was 1/3 the cost but matched or outperformed the Ferrari in every category except flat out acceleration.
Japan forced Ferrari to be better and they instituted many of the same production techniques & equipment to improve their quality.
Ferrari used to say there is always some level of unreliability in a hand made performance car. Honda proved Ferrari wrong. Today Ferrari is better because of Japan.
China will force Europe & the US as well as Japan & Korea to be better or die.
I believe Porsche can certainly compete with China.
I work in the semiconductor industry where China is always trying to beat the west. They make the cheapest devices but not the highest performance devices. They are catching up but if the west does not continue to innovate then our margins will suffer as well. I am helping startups outside of China to leapfrog any technology China is working on today to overtake the west in consumer, industrial or defense electronics.
The competitive landscape will surely tighten but once everyone is in the same playing field it means that all margins for all companies will tighten.
Low volume high margin vehicles will always have their place but the high volume vehicles which make the real money for auto manufacturers operate on very slim margins.
Chinese ICE & EV vehicles will force the rest of the world to make better, more reliable, cost competitive products for the masses.

I am hopeful that your (well articulated) optimism is accurate. And I think it will be (the optimist in ME).

BUT

I keep thinking about the saying: "what is a pessimist? an optimist with experience!"

Time will tell.

 

[Gino]

I am hopeful that your (well articulated) optimism is accurate. And I think it will be (the optimist in ME).

BUT

I keep thinking about the saying: "what is a pessimist? an optimist with experience!"

Time will tell.

You are wise to be skeptical but it’s amazing how 100 year old companies respond to competition & adversity. Many just fold & die. I can’t imagine Porsche going down that path and I also can’t imagine them just building vehicles for the ultra wealthy like Bugatti. The Germans are very proud of their engineering precision heritage and I’m counting on them to find a way to at least compete in both ICE & EV along with everyone else.

 

[Crazymind]

Many reasons China is ahead, labour cost, battery production, heavy EV government funded program and also their 300% debt to help fast growth…lots oaf advantage now…to be paid by their people soon or later.
And Europe so behind because we have no control of battery chain, Europe is not one single market, high structural costs compared to China.
We had the advantage before, they have it now… let them enjoy it till they can.

 

[Porsche-Guru]

You are wise to be skeptical but it’s amazing how 100 year old companies respond to competition & adversity. Many just fold & die. I can’t imagine Porsche going down that path and I also can’t imagine them just building vehicles for the ultra wealthy like Bugatti. The Germans are very proud of their engineering precision heritage and I’m counting on them to find a way to at least compete in both ICE & EV along with everyone else.

I think the issue with all non South East governments (EU, Germany, UK, etc.) is that too much complacency has set in.

A serious wake up call is needed; and unfortunately just the automotive industry slowly dying is not enough to provide that necessary jolt…

… but I remain hopeful and sincerely wish that the German automotive industry regains its excellence.

 

[Gino]

Many reasons China is ahead, labour cost, battery production, heavy EV government funded program and also their 300% debt to help fast growth…lots oaf advantage now…to be paid by their people soon or later.
And Europe so behind because we have no control of battery chain, Europe is not one single market, high structural costs compared to China.
We had the advantage before, they have it now… let them enjoy it till they can.

Cheap labor always gets crushed by automation. I worked for ASML for a decade. They build the most advanced, most complicated, highest productivity chip making equipment on earth. China cannot compete with it to build advanced chips. China has tried to copy ASML equipment for decades but have always failed and will continue to fail as they have been blocked from buying these systems for decades. They will eventually make up the ground to compete with ASML but when they catch up to where ASML is today then ASML and other western advanced lithography companies will be miles ahead of China once again through constant innovation.
Will China ever make up the technological ground to become equals to the west? Eventually yes but not until after 2040 but even by then China at best will become equal to the world’s largest chip manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Global Foundries, etc. Their cheap labor at that point becomes completely irrelevant for a 1 trillion dollar chip manufacturing facility that is fully automated pumping out billions of the most advanced chips on earth every hour.
Automation always blows cheap labor out of the water. The more the west automates the stronger they will be and China’s cheap labor will eventually become their Achilles heel. China will be forced to automate just like Taiwan did to become the world’s leading chip supplier, not China.
The more hands that touch any product during production the more defects occur, lowering overall quality, reliability and value.
All we can expect in the long term is to be at parity with China by 2040 when they could possibly draw even with western technology innovation in semiconductor manufacturing which is more and more the most significant percentage of every vehicle produced.

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