What Happens To Us After 8 Years? (When battery warranty expires)

[69Mach390]

If you wait long enough, would the first version of the Taycans ever become "vintage" and "collectible" like some of the other early Porsches? What do people think?

Doubtful.

When a product is extremely tech based, old tech just tends to be….. old not collectible.

In modern history of cars, the only ones with some sort of collectible value seem to be the ones that are very easily modified to extreme power levels.

GT500s, Supras and the like.

But high horsepower EVs aren’t exactly unique these days and battery degradation over time means none of them will survive to vintage time/status.

Plus sedans in general rarely ever make it to collectible status.

But who knows?

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[PorscheTaycan]

But who knows?

Hard to say - maybe vintage Taycans in the future will have updated batteries, hacked operating systems, and hotrodded mechanicals - while the untouched ones could be like the first gen iPhones which have become a bit collectible apparently.

 

[tigerbalm]

But they do have 1 more thing in common- they both head to the junkyard if the cost to repair ever goes above the value of the vehicle.

Which is probably why some of the more collectable cars – like specalist 911's – tend to get repaired as they hold onto their value.

Another aspect – certainly here in the EU – is the stringent emissions tests that cars undergo every two years once they reach four years old. As an ICE car gets older, it gets harder to meet the criteria.

EV's obviously won't even have such tests.

 

[logic]

Advancing technology is certainly a reason for depreciation. Digital interfaces, in particular, tend to look dated very quickly.

ICE cars actually are no different in many respects. Every aspect of a car has evolved tremendously: the performance, fuel consumption, emissions, safety, comfort, maintenance, and so on. Old cars underperform by today's standards, but they all share that same charm: being "special" at the time. There are some downsides to the Taycan that I don't want to brush off, but overall, it feels and looks like the better car at the time.

As I keep stating, the problematic part of the equation is the battery and people being afraid of change in general. On the long term the Taycan could regain some status... it was peak Porsche with a worlds first 800v architecture EV, foot garage battery pack, 2 speed drivetrain, repeatable performance both in accelerating and braking, extremely performant and comfortable at the same time. It's a car that will be added to the list of iconic cars for sure (but obviously not even close in comparison to some of the rare and special 911's).

A number of things are not taken into account, such as longer term emissions rules. Or the relative simple mechanicals compared to the complexity of an ICE. The high-voltage battery also contains a significant amount of materials that isn't particularly worthless... even a battery pack that is useless (to us) often still has working modules, which are sold for roughly 500 dollars each. Of the 33 modules in total, a few are bound to still work. The battery pack weighs more than 600 kg / 1200 pounds of scrap metal: aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and so on. So perhaps these cars are potentially undervalued, but I agree it could go either way, depending on how fast technology (especially in the fields of propulsion and energy storage) develops and lacking sufficient 3rd party supply and support.

 

[AutoX]

I'm less worried about the battery replacement as they tend to last a long time, even in degraded state. Worse case is that there is already a company that will replace the battery for 10k (quite reasonable). I'm more worried about the rest of the car. The 12v battery is 4k. The brakes are 6k for PSCB, the air suspension is 5k per corner. Motor and transmission is >20k? etc. Once things get worn out at 8years, simple repairs are just pricey.

 

[69Mach390]

I'm less worried about the battery replacement as they tend to last a long time, even in degraded state. Worse case is that there is already a company that will replace the battery for 10k (quite reasonable). I'm more worried about the rest of the car. The 12v battery is 4k. The brakes are 6k for PSCB, the air suspension is 5k per corner. Motor and transmission is >20k? etc. Once things get worn out at 8years, simple repairs are just pricey.

I think it’ll end up like an old AMG Mercedes…… very cheap used.

The people that can afford the repair costs on them can also afford to buy a newer one.

So the used ones end up on dirt lots sold for cheap and if they break they don’t get fixed.

low mileage 2015 E63-S for under $30k
https://www.cargurus.com/details/44...gEPBQOSrf4cKAs9BQQF6KUcKXCH70MjUPh5OiZFgM+lAA

 

[Arjan_]

Let's keep in mind that we are against not only 8 years but 100k mile limit for the battery warranty. So far, there is nothing official for US at least what happens after. I am hoping some options will start appearing since 2020s will be swept by the 8 year wave with the first examples produced in September of 2019.

On one hand, if the battery is solid then it should outlive the car, but if it runs into the cell issues that we all know of, then you have to deal with cell or entire battery replace.

I am not sure if anyone knows the true costs of replacement but the data that I have from my dealer, and I can get the latest, is in a $75k range, as used J1.1 refurbs no longer used, so the only battery that is available for replacement is a J1.2 with J1.1 emulation software for J1.1.

I plan to keep my car long time, as I like the J1.1 look, assistance ergonomics (J1.2 uses Audi flipped stalk), PDCC, and I am pretty sure I cannot afford whatever comes next as I expect the J1.3 prices to be in the numbers I do not understand. Therefore, my plan is to spend on the J1.2 battery even if it costs say $50k in 2030, but the issue would be what is the warranty on that as it will be a replacement part that usually carries a 2 year warranty.

Mine 2020 is at the dealer as we speak to get at least two modules replaced so I am not so confident anymore (107K km). I am now praying that there are way more modules broken and that they do a full replacement. After 8 years we are sitting ducks. If a battery then fails you better can sell your car for parts imho.

 

[daveo4EV]

I'll confess that even though I thought I'd researched well, I was still surprised to learn about the scope of Taycan battery issues after I purchased my 2021 RWD 6 months ago. I've had zero problems, and had hoped that this would be the last car I'd buy (yeah, I'm old). This thing is so crazy fast and comfortable compared to my last Porsche (87 Carrera Targa), which realistically for me was a difficult daily driver (although I put 100k miles on it). Anyway, I'm wondering what will happen when we have HV battery problems after the 8 years are up:
1. Porsche gives us the middle finger, and we're on our own (losing every customer who has battery problems after 8 years)
2. Porsche steps up, and offers free or greatly reduced repair rates after 8 years
3. Aftermarket battery repairs will be so commonplace and cheap for Taycans that it won't really matter
Curious about peoples thoughts.... .

I'm mostly unconcered - the battery does not "expire" or turn into a pumpkin the day after the warranty expires - it should work fine for many year post warranty period - if it breaks it's expensive no doubt, but in line with any major drive train component for a Porsche that is 8+ years old…have you priced a Porsche transmission or engine that goes out or transfer case of their AWD vehicles?

 

[Gkwan]

My feeling exactly. Assume that you paid $100,000 for your car and it lasts for 10 years. Forgetting the time value of money the car costs $10,000 per year.........or, $833.00 per month. Not being flippant, but in my book that is a pretty low cost for driving a Porsche for a full 10 years. Anything past 10 years is a bonus. Now, yes, this is an overly simple example but it does demonstrate the point - you have purchased a hunk of depreciating metal, plastic, and maybe some leather that at some point will have a low or close to zero residual value. Drive the car with a smile on your face knowing that you and your car are pretty darn special.

same spirit here

 

[babylou66]

There are also some insanely high kWh/kg batteries coming out, and if I could get ~90kWh for ~300kG (already possible today) that would make the car 1900kg, which is a featherweight in todays cars (2500kg M5 wtaf)

Where can these batteries be sourced? The best I've seen for automobiles are semi-solid state batteries made by WeLion (pouch cells) and now CATL (titanium cased prismatic cells) with their new Qilin Condensed. These makers cells result in packs 20% heavier than what you state which is still a great leap forward and what I hope Porsche uses in the 718EV

 

[babylou66]

There's a Chinese company offering BMW i3 replacement packs with modern CATL prismatic cells. The packs have about 50% more capacity than the largest capacity pack offered by BMW and the pack is about USD6,300 + freight, duties, etc.

I can see the same happening for Taycan packs. Maybe even equipped with semi-solid cells and either drop some weight or gain some range.

 

[69Mach390]

There's a Chinese company offering BMW i3 replacement packs with modern CATL prismatic cells. The packs have about 50% more capacity than the largest capacity pack offered by BMW and the pack is about USD6,300 + freight, duties, etc.

I can see the same happening for Taycan packs. Maybe even equipped with semi-solid cells and either drop some weight or gain some range.

Interesting.

But for $6,300 do you get a good quality battery or those crappy knock offs that don’t last like when I buy AA batteries from China on Amazon?

 

[babylou66]

Interesting.

But for $6,300 do you get a good quality battery or those crappy knock offs that don’t last like when I buy AA batteries from China on Amazon?

The cells are CATL which is probably the gold standard. CATL has 40%+ gloabl market share and I can't recall a major issue with their cells. LG had issues with Chevy & Porsche. Sunwoda with Volvo/Zeekr. SK with VW.

 

[Gkwan]

That's excellent news, imagine the utopia : J1.1 Taycan retrofitted +50% autonomy, problem solved

 

[GREATST]

I figure at 7.5 years, I will sell mine. I don't want to have to deal with a battery replacement. I'd probably want a new/different car by then anyway.

thanks for sharing

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