Depreciation bottom

[Redhot2474]

there’s some really aggressive leasing on Audi etron, lucid and probably will be very aggressive leasing on the G wagon EV soon as those aren’t moving. I had Audi run some numbers on a 25’ s etron and it’s quite aggressive but seems like a lateral move when rolling in negative equity from Taycan. Mines a 23’ GTS with. 22k miles and they offered me 75k on trade (I owe 103k). I’m also having lucid put together some numbers on a lease to see if makes sense to get out from under Taycan. Anyone have a guess where the depriciation might flatten on j1 Taycans? - im thinking they will flatten around 30-35% of MSRP and probably hold there , that seems to be where the 20’ Taycans turbo are holding. I’ll probably just hold onto as im not willing to take a huge hit - no biggie either way, 2100$ car payment isn’t really necessary especially when I have a few other cars - so, I’m willing to explore some other options , first world problems , I get it - I’m not used to picking the wrong models and getting crushed , half the fun for me over the years was buying the “right” cars and unloading them years later for about what I paid - yes, cars are meant to be enjoyed and not an asset , still doesn’t change the fact I don’t like losing ?

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[Rusty Griswald]

Had a Lucid GT purchase about 1.5 year ago …… After 6 months I moved on. Very nice driving car, but numerous software disappointments

 

[whitex]

Anyone have a guess where the depriciation might flatten on j1 Taycans? - im thinking they will flatten around 65-70% of MSRP and probably hold there , that seems to be where the 20’ Taycans turbo are holding.

Did you mean "65-70% off of MSRP", or "30-35% of MSRP"?

 

[Redhot2474]

Did you mean "65-70% off of MSRP", or "30-35% of MSRP"?

Good catch , meant 30-35% of MSRP

 

[Leccy61]

YouTube channel “Fourwheel Trader” who specialises in car depreciation analysis did a more optimistic video about Taycan recently, it was broadly in line with what you’re thinking.

 

[trycan]

I’m not used to picking the wrong models and getting crushed

Probably want to skip the Lucid option then. A nice product for sure, but the long term future of the company is not certain as far as I'm concerned.

 

[taycev]

My personal expectation is that used prices particularly J1's will face some additional pressure over the next few months as all the ARB6 affected vehicles get released back to the market following the software remedy. A number of these were probably held back pending this release (at least at OPCs, but maybe also some other sellers).

Perhaps its also wishful thinking as I'm hoping to get a bargain ?

 

[whitex]

Perhaps its also wishful thinking as I'm hoping to get a bargain ?

Isn't that always the case? You read on the internet how prices of something cratered, so you go looking for the amazing deals youtubers and forum members tell you are everywhere, and you just cannot find them.

Bargains can be had (negotiated?) almost at any point in time. The key is to find someone desperate to sell. Of course with Taycans, you'll need to be flexible on specs, as there are more possible combinations of options than Taycans ever produced. So as soon as you get stuck on that one particular set of options, your price statistically goes up, because you eliminate possible sellers - less choices = less supply = higher price.

 

[Leccy61]

That is so true @whitex the spec matrix. Couldn’t find my ideal car in a 3 month hunt and settled on a 75% match. All options are not equal of course but felt about as close as I was going to get with what I wanted to spend on a J1.

 

[taycev]

Isn't that always the case?

Agreed it's all subjective and dependent where you draw the line.

An 8/10 spec for me was listing in the UK for about £58k start of this year, £55k in May, and I missed out on a £49k 10/10 spec 2 weeks back. For me, sub £50k is the sweet spot, and there definitely are these 'bargains' out there if I wait for the right one (and don't let it slip from me).

Agree to some extent the higher price the more selective you get, but ultimately a seller will never be able to charge more than their advertised price no matter how much the buyer loves it (unless it's an auction). In my examples, the prices are the advertised prices and could be lower after some haggling.

 

[whitex]

Agree to some extent the higher price the more selective you get, but ultimately a seller will never be able to charge more than their advertised price no matter how much the buyer loves it (unless it's an auction). In my examples, the prices are the advertised prices and could be lower after some haggling.

The more particular you are, the longer you will have to wait for a spec that satisfies you (statistically speaking, you could beat the odds and win the lottery of course). The silver lining is that as cars get older, they get cheaper, so the longer you wait, the more cars will fall in your price range.

 

[Freeewilly]

I've been following new and use Taycan price since 2021. I see the depreciation rate hit the rock bottom in 2024 and keep it steadily bad since.

 

[Flying ace]

you and I are in the same mindset. I too have a 23 GTS (ST), picked it up preowned for $112k ($178k msrp) back in Oct. My estimate on depreciation is it'll be a $100k car by end '25, and $90k car by end of '26. Getting a $75k trade is undervalued as '23 GTS STs are still retailing at $117k! (i know P&L blah blah blah).

I see that sedans retail about $10k less than STs so adjust my numbers above by $10k. The '23 GTS Sedan will not be a consistent $75k car until mid-year 2026 IMO

I'm also in the same mindset that I "picked the wrong car", but honestly, if I can afford the depreciation, then I'm going to enjoy the car. Every other EV is getting hit hard(er) than the Taycan, and if anything the Taycan will hold better value relatively. I've hit the depreciation jackpot on all my cars to date (E90 M3, E70 X5, 991 GT3, 997 GT3, F06 M6 and even the G05 X5, which thru MSRP and tax credits allowed me to drive it depreciation free for 2 years!). Just have to get in at the right price, but the Taycan rate is steep!

Ultimately if you're moving to Lucid, Audi, Tesla, Kia, Rivian, they're all horrendous depreciations and the lease deals reflect that. IMO, you're doing right by staying with the car instead of jumping to a new EV and eating that first 2 years of depreciation. No matter how good the lease deal is, it's not good enough unless they'll come to the table with $20-$30k of MSRP discounts.

I myself will look to move in late 2026 to a Rivian R1S and hoping they still have those trade incentives at that time, which I think will stick around bc the EV space is getting ultra competitive.

 

[Redhot2474]

you and I are in the same mindset. I too have a 23 GTS (ST), picked it up preowned for $112k ($178k msrp) back in Oct. My estimate on depreciation is it'll be a $100k car by end '25, and $90k car by end of '26. Getting a $75k trade is undervalued as '23 GTS STs are still retailing at $117k! (i know P&L blah blah blah).

I see that sedans retail about $10k less than STs so adjust my numbers above by $10k. The '23 GTS Sedan will not be a consistent $75k car until mid-year 2026 IMO

I'm also in the same mindset that I "picked the wrong car", but honestly, if I can afford the depreciation, then I'm going to enjoy the car. Every other EV is getting hit hard(er) than the Taycan, and if anything the Taycan will hold better value relatively. I've hit the depreciation jackpot on all my cars to date (E90 M3, E70 X5, 991 GT3, 997 GT3, and even the G05 X5, which thru MSRP and tax credits allowed me to drive it depreciation free for 2 years!). Just have to get in at the right price, but the Taycan rate is steep!

Ultimately if you're moving to Lucid, Audi, Tesla, Kia, Rivian, they're all horrendous depreciations and the lease deals reflect that. IMO, you're doing right by staying with the car instead of jumping to a new EV and eating that first 2 years of depreciation. No matter how good the lease deal is, it's not good enough unless they're literally come to the table with $20-$30k of MSRP discounts.

I myself will look to move in late 2026 to a Rivian R1S and hoping they still have those trade incentives at that time, which I think will stick around bc the EV space is getting ultra competitive.

Totally agree, I actually absolutely love the car and figure if i keep it 8 years and factor in my 7500 rebate and free energy I get to charge from my building my monthly cost to drive this car will be negligible in comparison to what a lease would cost - I bought a targa about 7 months ago and got a total score of a deal so that in essence neutralizes me a bit - in reality , it’s more of a “fun game” for me to not get crushed and enjoy the car as I’ve reached a point in my life I earned the right to blow some $ on cars. …..at the end of the day, there’s really no car I’d rather drive as a daily other than this Taycan , so …all is good in the hood ?

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