EVs v ICE long term durability

[daveo4EV]

the EV just takes that 'replace vs. repair" to an even higher level and thus I believe the long term viability (and value) is going to suffer

this seems to be the “heart” of hte issue - not that it will fail - but technology advances will make the older generation stuff less desirable - on this front @mikeva and I agree - technology advances will make the current generation Taycan‘s “less desireable” - but that is the nature of digital devices vs. analog devices and I see not alternative in this space given the vast improvement in quality and capabilities typically brought forth by relentless incremental improvement - just compare the original iPhone to an iPhone 13 and we can expect similar improvements in the EV space.

however from a pure reliability point of view there is no reason to expect EV’s to be less reliable than ICE vehicles - and frankly even ICE vehicles get less desirable vs. newer models…

yes we can expect vast improvements in EV‘s that may make previous EV’s less desireable - but honestly beyond the legacy appeal I honestly do not want to go back to a 1960’s/1970’s 911 as a daily driver - sure for 2 or 3 hours on a weekend I love it - but today’s ICE 911’s are much more livable than the previous stuff…

it’s the result of technology advancements - yeah the newer stuff is going to be vastly better than the older stuff.

solution? stop making advances? I think not.

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[f1eng]

The Taycan is my first EV and I know very little about them from a long term durability perspective.

Especially compared to ICE cars that I have been used to.

I am guessing that enough people have now had EVs (Teslas?) longer term and may have some input on this.

I appreciate the batteries start to degrade on an EV, but you don't have things like clutch wear / timing belt changes etc.

Also interested in longer term servicing / running costs.

Just out of interest really - so any experiences / input welcome.

Thanks

Electric cars are spectacularly simpler mechanically than IC engined cars, both motor and transmission.
The temperature controlling systems for batteries and motors will be more complex than IC engine equivalents and since they work at much lower temperatures the heat transfer to whatever coolers there are will be more difficult to control.
Generally speaking electronic systems tend to either fail young or last a long time. As long as the connectors have good environmental seals that side of things will last well enough.

The battery deterioration probably depends on how hard they are used, particularly charging, and also age but also maybe people will want to change for cells with a newer chemistry if it is space and cooling compatible.

The other thing is perceived obsolescence. A new model with more features may sell/ be wanted like a digital camera with more pixels...

 

[f1eng]

and frankly even ICE vehicles get less desirable vs. newer models…

but honestly beyond the legacy appeal I honestly do not want to go back to a 1960’s/1970’s 911 as a daily driver - sure for 2 or 3 hours on a weekend I love it

I think that is a matter of individual taste though, like you.
In a sports car I want me to be the driver, not a clever engineer, so I still have a Ferrari 355 since all subsequent models have electronic stability control and flappy paddle gearboxes, neither of which I want.
I have 3-pedals, 6-speed gated gearbox and a simple mechanical limited slip differential. It suits me perfectly and Ferrari haven't produced a car I want since then, however sophisticated they are


I know I am not typical though

 

[daveo4EV]

you’ll want to replace your Taycan about the same time/reason you want to purchase a new desktop/laptop - generally speaking it will be because capibilities have improved enough that you want the upgrade vs. any actual functional failure/wear reason…

I for one have a 2013 MacPro - 8 years old, but still working great - I can honestly find _NO_ reason to replace it - but I expect I will shortly as at some point in the future Apple will no longer support it as part of MacOS X supported configurations…and so far nothing on the new stuff compels me to replace - the newer MacPro’s are faster, but my workflows are not exploiting those use cases…

you’ll replace your Taycan with the 600 mile range solid-state-battery version in 2028…but not because anything on your Taycan has worn out, but eventually the incrementally better feature set will entice you into a new model.

 

[daveo4EV]

I think that is a matter of individual taste though, like you.
In a sports car I want me to be the driver, not a clever engineer, so I still have a Ferrari 355 since all subsequent models have electronic stability control and flappy paddle gearboxes, neither of which I want.
I have 3-pedals, 6-speed gated gearbox and a simple mechanical limited slip differential. It suits me perfectly and Ferrari haven't produced a car I want since then, however sophisticated they are


I know I am not typical though

yeah I see this as a difference set of considerations vs. reliability/durability

my brother in law wears a mechanical watch for the same reason - which has nothing to do with telling time - a smart watch tells the time and does a myriad of other useful things but lacks the mechanical engagement of his favorite Seiko…I’ll still argue for me personally I don’t want 3 pedals and 6 speeds for a DD in traffic, but on the weekend bring it on!!!

• will newer EV’s be more desirable than a 202x Taycan - probably
• do some people want more mechanical than digital - definately
• are we as a society being pushed toward replace and repurchase rather than rebuild and reuse - absolutely
• will today’s Taycan’s suffer a lack of durable desirability? probably
• will you be able to service a 202x Taycan indefinitely? Probably not given it’s a low volume product (less than 40,000 annually) - but it will take years before parts are not available
  • yes it will be some mother board in the future that has failed that can not be “rebuilt” or found in a donor vehicle that will cause your Taycan to go by the way side, but the level of lack of repairability here is no different than ANY digital based vehicle including ICE cars which can’t run without their motherboards…if those motherboards fail and you can’t find a working replacement - your rebuild V8 is no more fixable than a Taycan. unless you set the way back machine for 1975 or earlier…

but from a point of view of will my Taycan have actual reliability problems (vs. desirability problems) I think we can safely predict EV’s will tend to suffer far fewer issues vs. ICE just given the fact that their drive trains are more “solid state” and have vastly fewer points of failure(s) and lack the volume of wearable/consumable parts required for them to function.

will you want your Taycan in 12 years? I don’t know, but I’m betting no given the march of progress
will your Taycan “fail” in 12 years - the battery is the weak link, but replaceable, the EV motors themselves are probably bullet proof and will outlast us all, all the other electronics on the vehicle are no different than their ICE counter parts…

 

[mikeva]

OK, Ok ... I probably answered the original question from the wrong perspective. My neighbor had just been over to my house with his 1952 Chevy pickup and it is in fantastic shape and quite honestly I do not expect my 2021 Taycan to be (or be able to be maintained to that level) in 68 years. And, yes that is a much different issue than current ICE cars vs. current EV cars.

I will agree that there is nothing that should not have a current EV be more dependable than a current ICE.

My mistake was thinking of the dependability of EV vs. older ICE cars and not thinking about EV's vs current ICE.

I am really enjoying the comments and thoughts so maybe my looking at it from a wrong perspective was a good thing for getting the comments going.....

 

[daveo4EV]

OK, Ok ... I probably answered the original question from the wrong perspective. My neighbor had just been over to my house with his 1952 Chevy pickup and it is in fantastic shape and quite honestly I do not expect my 2021 Taycan to be (or be able to be maintained to that level) in 68 years. And, yes that is a much different issue than current ICE cars vs. current EV cars.

I will agree that there is nothing that should not have a current EV be more dependable than a current ICE.

My mistake was thinking of the dependability of EV vs. older ICE cars and not thinking about EV's vs current ICE.

I am really enjoying the comments and thoughts so maybe my looking at it from a wrong perspective was a good thing for getting the comments going.....

understood

the older stuff is much more “self fixable” as long as you can find parts…

and yes a 1952 chevy is probably more “reliable” from a point of view of can I fix this myself? (again assuming parts) - yes vs. a modern digital vehicle…

it’s a strange set of trade offs - for pure “do it yourself” - certainly older cars are ”better” vs. a Taycan which can’t even do a software update without a live connect on a PWIS in a porsche service bay…

for “do it yourself” repaires - EV’s are way way way worse, much more “black box” it either all works or it all doesn’t…but then again I’m not sure how much I could do with a 2021 Panamera either…

I don’t think you were wrong and your perspective is 100% valid - it’s just such a multidimensional question/perspective that we need to be a bit more clear about what we’re optmizing for

I’ll take the 1952 Chevy if we’re talking do it yourself…

 

[Skilly]

cost to replace a battery is actually less than virturally _ANY_ Porsche rebuild cost + parts for an ICE motor or transmission - my GT3 motor alone is a 50k vs replacement cost for a Taycan battery…and PDK transmissions are not cheap either to replace or rebuild…

its highly unlikely that the entire battery pack is ever replaced. In fact, it's pretty much a guarantee.

Porsche has sent its designated Taycan specialists for training that includes breaking the battery pack open in order to service it, and replace isolated cell failure. Its going to be very rare that the entire battery fails.

 

[philbur]

I just hope a battery swap in 10 years means swapping to current tech batteries. If we can keep that model the efficiencies could keep going up. ICE will slowly go away.

 

[rich_r]

I think some people confuse software issues with long term reliability as well. A lot of the issues people complain about here are software related and will likely get sorted within the warranty period. And yes at some point porsche will stop issuing software updates for the taycan. But unlike a phone or a laptop I’m not sure it matters as much - it’s not like I need my taycan to be compatible with some future app. Of course stuff like Apple CarPlay will eventually become incompatible for this reason. As Dave pointed out, that has more to do with the desirability of a current taycan eventually decreasing but not the actual reliability.

 

[XLR82XS]

It would be really interesting to know what some of the high mileage Tesla Model S cars (most comparable?) have achieved over the years and what the battery capacity is like on some of the mega mile cars?

Here's a repair report of one Tesla 90D with 450K miles:

 

[XLR82XS]

The battery deterioration probably depends on how hard they are used, particularly charging, and also age but also maybe people will want to change for cells with a newer chemistry if it is space and cooling compatible.

Will cars that spent their lives in cold/freezing climates affect their value since li-ion batteries don't like cold?

Article in the latest Panorama magazine says that Porsche will be utilizing Quantum Scape for solid-state battery tech which I predicted would happen. That and platform replacement for Taycan in 2026.

 

[mikeva]

this is from the current issue of Panorama and while I realize that most of the cost for the Taycan is going to be warranty work, but this does not inspire a lot of confidence in my mind..,.

 

[JimBob]

Will cars that spent their lives in cold/freezing climates affect their value since li-ion batteries don't like cold?

Article in the latest Panorama magazine says that Porsche will be utilizing Quantum Scape for solid-state battery tech which I predicted would happen. That and platform replacement for Taycan in 2026.

Lithium Ion batteries do not mind the cold. Sure they output less power and charge more slowly but when the temperature recovers the battery goes back to where it was with no effect. It's heat that damages batteries.

If given the choice between an EV that spent its life in Alaska or Arizona, take the one from Alaska.

 

[f1eng]

this is from the current issue of Panorama and while I realize that most of the cost for the Taycan is going to be warranty work, but this does not inspire a lot of confidence in my mind..,.

Stories of multiple AC failures and alarm problems will probably be very expensive to diagnose, given how long they have persisted, and may have poor access to repair so many man-hours to fix

Not really necessarily anunreliability problem specific to an EV though, probably, though the AC will be a new design and maybe not very well executed. Hope not!

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