Of course FSD can and has avoided accidents. Great! It doesn't mean it can drive all on its own 100% of the time (or else Tesla would have had it certified as Level 5).
I haven't driven on FSD in a couple of years. I did take RoboTaxi recently, it did ok (operator did not have a take over, but had to operate hazard lights manually - turned them on when we were getting into the car, then forgot to turn them off, car cleared 2 left turn signal intersections with hazards blinking before the operator realized and turned them off). That said, I don't see Tesla allowing (and taking full responsibility) for customers to just send their cars for service all by themselves (you know, when you go to bed, your car drives itself to Tesla service, they change the wipers, swap tires from winter to summer, change filters, send it back, customer has their car ready to roll in the morning). Heck, I don't even see Tesla committing to cover all damage (or any damage actually) caused while driving on FSD, so their own confidence is not that high. I'm talking about real confidence, not Elon's hot air statements which he's spewing out but not willing to back with any money (hey, remember Elon claiming Teslas were an appreciating investment, well, I tested that theory, Tesla employees laughed hard at me when I tried to lease some Teslas based on that statement being true. That didn't stop Tesla fanboys online to defend Elon's statement with a passion, but none of them wanted to put their money where their mouth is either).
50% off all miles if you engage FSD for some, or only discount for miles driven on FSD? Will they also commit to not raise your insurance if you keep on getting into accidents while on FSD because you didn't take over in time (or if FSD disengages and you don't take over - still FSD's fault for just "throwing its hand up")? If FSD is so safe, they should encourage people to let FSD drive all the time and never support less-save human take over, perhaps giving the greatest discount for any owner who will remove the steering wheel altogether.
So 40% of accidents can be mitigated by Automatic Emergency Braking then. I haven't looked at most recent data, but last I looked at Tesla documentation its AEB only slowed down to under 30mph for read end collision, vs. others (like Subaru) came to a complete stop (IIRC this was EU NCAP testing).
Overconfidence in “drivers assistance” features is a real problem.
This problem gets worse as ADAS gets better. That is why Google/Waymo skipped Level 3. If you only have to take over once a year, you will never be ready - that's just human nature. I can tell you from personal experience, at first you might be very vigilant, but surprisingly quickly your brain learns to disengage. I remember long ago using some early AP features, before they did any driver monitoring. At first I was very vigilant, paying extra attention. I do remember however not long after starting, a specific example which scared me: I was stuck in stop and go traffic, car did great, maybe half an hour later traffic freed up and I caught myself daydreaming while watching some boats on the horizon to my left, then a thought occurred to me "Hmm.... I'm doing 70mph, who is driving, OH SHIT! I'M SUPPOSED BE SUPERVISING IT!". I stopped using it after that. There are enough people driving today without any ADAS features while spaced out and on their phones (just stand on a side of a long, straight road during rush traffic and watch how many people veer out of their lanes). ADAS is going to make it worse, or perhaps it will reduce the low impact accidents, like stop and go rush traffic read enders, but increase the severe ones where ADAS really throws its hands up, being Level 2 it's on the driver to take over in 0.000s, or even before. "Oups! Sorry you got T-boned Mr. Customer, I missed that red light, you were supposed to take over and stop me. On a positive note, I only miss one red light a year, so my track record is near perfect."
If you haven't used FSD recently, that's not really how it handles hand-off. It's just doesn't just shut off in 0.0 seconds.
Tesla certified the Robotaxi in Texas as Level 4. No one is claiming that FSD is infallible, only that it's better than the avg driver in its current state and improves with each update. Tesla is about to release their robocab without a steering wheel and pedals. It's already in production.
My feelings towards Elon do not in any way affect my judgement of the product. I still recommend Model Y to people as a great choice for an EV for example, as long as you buy it only for what is available and functional on delivery day, and understand the way Tesla makes their statements, like my example of Tesla specifying "Max motor power" but omitting the fact that it's nowhere near achievable in the car they sell it in, but technically that motor could in fact generate this much power in some other car with a better battery, or like when Tesla promised Full Self Driving shuttling family and friends for free, and making money when owner doesn't need the car while driving for Tesla Ride Sharing Network - all that for cars sold in 2016, which are now a decade old, are you still a believer Tesla will enable all (or any) of those cars with Level 4 FSD for free?
It's Level 2, so AFAIK that means you may have to take over in -5.00 seconds, not just 0.00 seconds. For example, if car is driving on FSD and FSD does not ask you to take over, but you see it about to run someone over, it is on you to take over. Or has that changed, and Tesla covers any and all damage done by the car while in FSD, no longer requiring the driver to take over unless FSD asks with some advanced notice (how long is that minimum notice)?
No argument about never having no accidents. I just interpret "3x less likely to get into an accident" in the way all Tesla statements need to be interpreted. So for example, if FSD disengages fraction of a second before accident, it doesn't count as accident on FSD. Also accident in this case probably means any accident, including minor scrapes. So it could be that it's 3x less likely to get into any accident, but more likely to be in a fatal accident, or a major accident. Who knows, maybe that is cheaper for the insurance industry, perhaps minor accidents are costing more in total than major ones?
