Taycan production slowdown

[Murph7355]

....
Pressure to go all out EV has waned thanks to indecisive and knee-jerk government policies and the disarray that a target of net zero has become. Six figure ($ / £) EVs in particular aren't going to be sustainable when cheaper alternatives exist within the same brand which let's be honest have more power and gadgets than most mere mortals actually require.
....

Has it waned?

Isn't it still the case that there are to be no new ICE passenger car sales from 2035??

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[Murph7355]

Will they though? Chinese car brands will start producing in europe, so their cars will be everywhere at a lower price tag, with a faster producing cycle, with the latest technology. BYD is opening a plant in Hungary, Chery in Spain, Great Wall Motors is also coming to europe, Geely is coming to poland with both car plant and battery plant, and CATL have also announced that they are looking at an european site.

There will be competiton, quite a lot of it, so I don't know how prices could rise. 90% of the time, competition means lower prices for customers, and you can bet your ass that chinse brands will try to undercut at every corner the prices of traditional automakers.

Those firms don't sell ICE here.

If they did (do they make them for their home market even), what would the prices be?

I don't see any way Porsche will sell an EV Macan for less than the current ICE line up.

 

[chun]

Those firms don't sell ICE here.

If they did (do they make them for their home market even), what would the prices be?

I don't see any way Porsche will sell an EV Macan for less than the current ICE line up.

The ICE lineup won't exist, no? There is no new ICE macan, and current ones don't adhere to current regulation in EU (https://unece.org/DAM/trans/doc/2020/wp29grva/ECE-TRANS-WP29-2020-079-Revised.pdf) and porsche said they will stop sales in eu for them .
So for the mass market, porsche has only the macan EV and the hybrid cayenne / new cayenne. And they are NOT cheap - for what they offer (again, compare to rivian that delivers a super car at the same price point)
At least brand new ones, and not 2nd hand.
But that is now. In 2-3 years when those plants are online, porsche's strategy might change. Until then people looking for cheap EVs will get chinese EVs through the north of europe, where they stated they won't adhere to EU regulations on tarifs and chinese cars can be sold without the extra taxes ?

 

[D00notD00d]

Nice idea but it's not what the masses (yes, like it or not our Porsches are mass produced) want at the end of the day. Taycan may become a niche player (if it survives but I can't recall any model series ever being retired) for a while to come - perhaps a large 2-door GT coupe - but Porsche need to recover losses I assume they've incurred given the trials and tribulations we've all encountered. To scale down production and ramp up Macan EV production tells me that Porsche will follow the money (remember that the Cayenne saved the company once upon a time) first.

Pressure to go all out EV has waned thanks to indecisive and knee-jerk government policies and the disarray that a target of net zero has become. Six figure ($ / £) EVs in particular aren't going to be sustainable when cheaper alternatives exist within the same brand which let's be honest have more power and gadgets than most mere mortals actually require.

In the VW stable, Audi will be the tech leader (already is in some regards - notably lighting tech) and at a lower price point rather than Porsche (I don't buy Porsches for gadgery tech and suspect many other buyers are the same).

Time will tell I guess.

Although the UK 100% target has been deferred to 2035, legislation still requires 80% of cars sold to be pure BEVs by 2030, else manufacturers will face fines- which will result in higher prices.
Circa 10m of the 25m UK homes cannot support home charging - which is essential. The other elephant in the room is replacement of the £25bn fuel duty government currently receives from ICE vehicles. Home charging rates may not always be this cheap. My Taycan is 85% cheaper to fuel than my Cayenne.

 

[Murph7355]

Although the UK 100% target has been deferred to 2035, legislation still requires 80% of cars sold to be pure BEVs by 2030, else manufacturers will face fines- which will result in higher prices.
Circa 10m of the 25m UK homes cannot support home charging - which is essential. The elephant in the room is replacement of the £25bn fuel duty government currently receives from ICE vehicles. Home charging rates may not always be this cheap. My Taycan is 85% cheaper to fuel than my Cayenne.

ICE will still exist for other purposes. They'll just get reamed first.

But I agree that it's inevitable charging costs will be screwed around with. So much for saving the planet

 

[chun]

Although the UK 100% target has been deferred to 2035, legislation still requires 80% of cars sold to be pure BEVs by 2030, else manufacturers will face fines- which will result in higher prices.
Circa 10m of the 25m UK homes cannot support home charging - which is essential. The elephant in the room is replacement of the £25bn fuel duty government currently receives from ICE vehicles. Home charging rates may not always be this cheap. My Taycan is 85% cheaper to fuel than my Cayenne.

Electricty prices in eu/uk are at an all time high. I don't think they can go higher...

I think it was in france where they announced 1 or 2 months ago that they produce enegry in excess (due to nuclear plants), more than they can use or store, and it's a burden on their infrastructure. That's got to push prices down in france.
Other countries might follow, if they realise that demolishing nuclear plants during an energy crisis is not a big brain move.

 

[Murph7355]

The ICE lineup won't exist, no? There is no new ICE macan, and current ones don't adhere to current regulation in EU (https://unece.org/DAM/trans/doc/2020/wp29grva/ECE-TRANS-WP29-2020-079-Revised.pdf) and porsche said they will stop sales in eu for them .
So for the mass market, porsche has only the macan EV and the hybrid cayenne / new cayenne. And they are NOT cheap - for what they offer (again, compare to rivian that delivers a super car at the same price point)
At least brand new ones, and not 2nd hand.
But that is now. In 2-3 years when those plants are online, porsche's strategy might change. Until then people looking for cheap EVs will get chinese EVs through the north of europe, where they stated they won't adhere to EU regulations on tarifs and chinese cars can be sold without the extra taxes ?

Porsche don't sell cheap cars. Never have.

They'll keep pushing prices up, and when battery costs come down will rub their hands.

Finance will still be king in the UK.

 

[chun]

ICE will still exist for other purposes. They'll just get reamed first.

But I agree that it's inevitable charging costs will be screwed around with. So much for saving the planet

I mean, sure. Porsche is working on that green fuel thing, for the future of ICE 911s. But those will be garage queens in the future. Where will you even find that sort of fuel?

 

[W1NGE]

Taycan is not he car for the masses. That was my point. It might have picked up more customers when it was the only EV in the Porsche stable, but once Macan EV was released, IMO it should become the niche technology test bed. Low volume, high price, makes it ideal to absorb early adopter recall costs (and yea, Porsche really needs to step up its game on OTA). If they leave the Taycan to be not the latest and greatest tech, it will really become the niche against other Porsche EV's as well as other manufacturers. If they are looking to justify $125K-$300K price tags, it really needs to be something special, not yesterday's tech that can be outran from any red light by a $40K Model 3 Performance. The latest generation of buyers is not quite as willing to shell out money just for the badge.

Hmm - 140K+ sales says different (remember too the e-Tron GT should be included in the numbers). Had the Macan EV launched first the Taycan possibly may not have seen the light of day given how things have turned out - instead they would have gone upmarket with more Macans - Turbo S / GT and so on. I just don't see the need (now) for both the Panamera and Taycan to co-exist (originally I'd expected the Panamera to be gracefully retired and replaced by the Taycan but that didn't happen). Both will be low numbers and at some point someone internally will wield the knife!

To my mind Porsche is conservative in nature and not all out to be Tesla busting tech. I can't see the bean counters supporting ultra low volume flagship Taycans - not how VW works. If Porsche were sold off then I'd be saying something different.

 

[chun]

Porsche don't sell cheap cars. Never have.

They'll keep pushing prices up, and when battery costs come down will rub their hands.

Finance will still be king in the UK.

Sure, but a cayenne is 100.000+; a macan EV is 100.000+.
And a Rivian, a much superior car, is cheaper. What will people buy? It's hard to compete at the high end of prices when your cars are 5-6 years behind.

And that competiton will only get worse. So what will they do? Increase prices for shit cars, while other brands lower prices for better cars? I doubt the badge alone will sell so well. Remains to be seen.

It's either lower prices or better cars than competition, and the macan EV is not better than the competition. I have driven it, interior is very nice, drives well. But you have cars like Rivian, that drive better, offer better technology, and can do much more, at a lower price. What will the typical american choose?

 

[D00notD00d]

Electricty prices in eu/uk are at an all time high. I don't think they can go higher...

I think it was in france where they announced 1 or 2 months ago that they produce enegry in excess (due to nuclear plants), more than they can use or store, and it's a burden on their infrastructure. That's got to push prices down in france.
Other countries might follow, if they realise that demolishing nuclear plants during an energy crisis is not a big brain move.

“Typical UK household energy bills increased by 54% in April 2022 and 27% in October 2022. Lower wholesale prices have led to falls in prices, but bills remain around 29% above their winter 2021/22 levels.”

UK electricity is priced according to the price of Gas - regardless of whether the real source is Gas (30%) Renewables (38%) or Nuclear. A nice earner for the non gas producers.

 

[D00notD00d]

Hmm - 140K+ sales says different (remember too the e-Tron GT should be included in the numbers). Had the Macan EV launched first the Taycan possibly may not have seen the light of day given how things have turned out - instead they would have gone upmarket with more Macans - Turbo S / GT and so on. I just don't see the need (now) for both the Panamera and Taycan to co-exist (originally I'd expected the Panamera to be gracefully retired and replaced by the Taycan but that didn't happen). Both will be low numbers and at some point someone internally will wield the knife!

To my mind Porsche is conservative in nature and not all out to be Tesla busting tech. I can't see the bean counters supporting ultra low volume flagship Taycans - not how VW works. If Porsche were sold off then I'd be saying something different.

To some extent Porsche has already been sold off:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/structure-planned-porsche-ipo-2022-09-19/

 

[W1NGE]

Has it waned?

Isn't it still the case that there are to be no new ICE passenger car sales from 2035??

Nope!

Porsche, Ferrari, et all will all be making ICE (EU rules permit for low volume niche vehicles beyond the "deadline") and besides EV infrastructure is (and won't) not where it needs to be - how will folk who can't charge at home (or in the street) be expected / coerced into EV only without civil disorder!? It ain't gonna happen any time soon - hybrids will inevitably become the compromise and governments will concede defeat. These exact same issues prevailed many years ago and still no sign of a timely solution or indeed resolution.

2035 became 2030 at the stroke of a pen in UK (motor industry wasn't best pleased nor were we who jumped ship and got burned) with the last bunch of incompetent Ministers in UK. I expect the new lot to be going back to 2030 as the headline target knowing full well that it isn't a practical proposition for all.

Take a look around - the transition from oil & gas to renewables in the timeframe quoted is fundamentally flawed (nor realistic). There simply isn't enough manufacturing capacity to meet and therefore supply the renewable technologies needed. The majors are backing off from major investment due to this and the economic model around it (fixed price return) and (in UK) neanderthal planning processes.

Oil remains king and will do so for decades to come - US is now (and quietly) the largest producer in the world which isn't going to suddenly change direction. This presents a powerful lobby.

 

[chun]

To some extent Porsche has already been sold off:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/structure-planned-porsche-ipo-2022-09-19/

To porsche ?

- Overall, 75% minus one ordinary share of Porsche AG's total share capital is owned by Volkswagen AG after the IPO.
- Porsche SE now owns 12.5% plus one ordinary share of Porsche AG's total capital while Qatar owns 2.5%.
- The remaining 10% is free-float.

I don't think VW will ever actually sell enaugh of it to not have control over it

 

[chun]

how will folk who can't charge at home (or in the street) be expected / coerced into EV only without civil disorder!? It ain't gonna happen any time soon - hybrids will inevitably become the compromise and governments will concede defeat. These exact same issues prevailed many years ago and still no sign of a timely solution or indeed resolution.

Which folk are exactly charging their ICE vehicles at home?

These sound like made up problems to me. I have not once driven though europe (and i drive regularly 500-3000km trips), and had a charging place be full. Not once.

Most people don't buy new cars, and most people won't be forced into buying said new EVs. Most will buy 2nd, 3rd or 4th hand ICE vehicles; and that will have 0 impact on the ban of NEW ICE cars.

People that actually need to charge at home, will find solutions. People that don't will use the ever growing public infrastructure.

EU has madated minium 150kw electric chargers every 60km on every EUROPEAN road, with european funds, by 2030. In switzerland, today, that is achived already.

EDIT: thing like this also regulate themselves. If people think they won't be able to charge, they will buy 2nd hand ICE cars, as they have for decades. It will have 0 effect on NEW ICE cars sales being banned, 0 effect.
EU plans to ban sales of NEW ICE cars by 2030/2035; with the hope that by 2050/2060 all cars on road will be EV. The ban of ICE by no means that in 2035 they expect all cars on road to be EV, as it will never happen, sells of 2nd hand of cars will continue to exist.

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