Taycan production slowdown

[tigerbalm]

From the dealers I know, the Macan will be hit, but the question will be for how long before the exhaust the EV buyers.

While I know that things vary per market: we're still heading for a 600km battery that's 50% of current weight and charges in 15-ish minutes + continuing buildout of high-speed charging networks.

The market for EV's will continue to grow. With a long enough horizon – its hard to see it not being almost the complete marketplace. Probably not in the timeframes being set by regulators and governments – they are a bit too ambitious – and nobody likes having options forced on them – but humanity is only going in one direction: electrification of transportation.

Yeah, we're in a bit of a dip right now – and I'm sure there will be more to come – but overtime – they will not be a large part of the story.

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[feye]

Ofc sales of brand NEW EVs have slumped. Ofc Taycan sales have slumped. Ofc legacy brands sell like shit in china

Not true. I've been in a dealership a year ago, the Audi Q4 was unpacked hidden upstairs, all the ICE shiny on the ground floor. Their reply: "No interest from buyers". Similar picture at the Merc shop which steep discounts on EQE and EQS. But there are customers in the ICE section. The Porsche shop recently was very quiet and only one Taycan on display. BMW manager told me recently, they are selling plugin hybrids well in China. Chinese still love German luxury cars, but not the electric ones.

True, the economic situation in China looks like this:

 

[feye]

It's what Porsche needed to do. Question is, can lower demand meet production units targets.

EVs generally are still very expensive, though cars generally seem to have accelerated onwards. Without subsidies, they're a difficult proposition for most. Compounded by higher interest rates over the last few years.

I think all manufacturers need to think carefully about expected volumes. As 6 figure prices become the norm, the market diminishes. And even at the lower end, charging 20%-50% more for the EV isn't helping affordability.

Will be interesting to see what happens. I don't see Porsche selling hundreds of thousands of EV Macans at their prices either. But away from Porsche... 100k for an EV XC90? 75k+ for an EV SUV Kia? 30k for an EV compact Peugeot? They're not going to be selling in huge volumes either.

Interesting. I could imagine, that we have a massive price war coming in the next 10 years. The batteries getting cheaper, and the cars are cheaper to make than ICEs.

Any prediction, when we will see the first BEV model cheaper than the equivialent ICE model?

 

[feye]

Just for the record. Sales for Porsche increased in 2023 by 3% to 309,884 worldwide. “The Taycan also posted double-digit gains, with 40,629 customers taking delivery of their new car (+17 per cent).”

2023 where still backlog orders from the pandemic?

 

[feye]

There was obviously a pent-up demand from early adopters who wanted a sports car like experience from a traditional manufacturer.

Perhaps some of this fall off in sales is just the end of the incredible launch figures that the Taycan got?

It was the first real EV from a quality manufacturer which also looked great. The Taycan was the highlight of my car buying career!

I am driving a EQA 250+, good but no love. I am trading up for comfort and space to a EQS SUV 580. I buy a second hand one (114k instead of 188k). Why spend money on a no love car... I'll stop by the Porsche dealer today and have a look at the Macan EV. But I know battery too small, tech too old and for this the price is way to high!

 

[W1NGE]

The latest report on 2023 sales shows that the US is Porsche’s largest market. China’s second and Europe, close third. Overall sales increase 3% over 2022, even though China sales decreased.

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/b...che-worldwide-car-sales-by-model-and-country/

I’m very curious to see what happens in 2024 with the release of the Macan EV. This will be the only Macan model available in Europe due to cybersecurity concerns, and my personal feeling is that the US market has been waiting for just this model. I expect it to do very well in the US.

ICE Macan continues to be available in non EU member countries e.g. UK. The cyber ruling is an EU law quirk which no longer applies to non EU members.

The question will be for how long?

Options for an ICE version of the new Macan?

It feels like there really isn't a need now for an over priced electric saloon / turismo in the Porsche stable with the Macan EV in play and the Panamera for those who want a 4 door ICE / hybrid option.

 

[whitex]

It feels like there really isn't a need now for an over priced electric saloon / turismo in the Porsche stable with the Macan EV in play and the Panamera for those who want a 4 door ICE / hybrid option.

Taycan should become the flagship bleeding edge technology test bed - 1000hp+ with latest tech. Smaller volumes and higher profit margin make it more suitable to try new things, in case there are recalls to take care of. It should be the latest Taycan that has the latest tech features first, not the higher volume Macan (e.g. AR HUD, new battery, etc). People buying it would know they are getting an early adopter car, but with features unmatched by other Porsches (and hopefully many other cars on the market).

As is right now, Macan EV has newer tech than the Taycan. As much as the Taycan had a great gen 1.5 refresh, a lot better/more than I expected, the Macan EV eclipsed it. There are people who are switching from Gen1 Taycans to Macan EV's rather than Gen1.5 Taycans. I can honestly see why.

 

[Scandinavian]

Taycan should become the flagship bleeding edge technology test bed - 1000hp+ with latest tech. Smaller volumes and higher profit margin make it more suitable to try new things, in case there are recalls to take care of.

Think that is the aim for Porsche once they have established their range of EV’s in the transformation. Same way as the 911 always was the top of range model.

But it is also a question of resources and Porsche are launching so many new models just now. In five years we will likely see a new Taycan with cutting edge technology again. Not necessarily a lot of features, but a fast, secure, comfortable long road tripping car.

 

[whitex]

But it is also a question of resources and Porsche are launching so many new models just now. In five years we will likely see a new Taycan with cutting edge technology again. Not necessarily a lot of features, but a fast, secure, comfortable long road tripping car.

True. Resource management is always an issue. However, so is risk management. Releasing new tech on a low volume, high profit margin car first, then following it up with other models, is a risk management strategy. Perhaps in this case Porsche felt they had to rush the Macan EV out the door as they had to stop selling the ICE model in EU? Or maybe the ICE Macan sales started dipping anyways, as it is pretty old technology, and they were faced with a choice of new Macan EV or ICE and chose EV based on COVID era customer demand.

 

[W1NGE]

Taycan should become the flagship bleeding edge technology test bed - 1000hp+ with latest tech. Smaller volumes and higher profit margin make it more suitable to try new things, in case there are recalls to take care of. It should be the latest Taycan that has the latest tech features first, not the higher volume Macan (e.g. AR HUD, new battery, etc). People buying it would know they are getting an early adopter car, but with features unmatched by other Porsches (and hopefully many other cars on the market).

As is right now, Macan EV has newer tech than the Taycan. As much as the Taycan had a great gen 1.5 refresh, a lot better/more than I expected, the Macan EV eclipsed it. There are people who are switching from Gen1 Taycans to Macan EV's rather than Gen1.5 Taycans. I can honestly see why.

Nice idea but it's not what the masses (yes, like it or not our Porsches are mass produced) want at the end of the day. Taycan may become a niche player (if it survives but I can't recall any model series ever being retired) for a while to come - perhaps a large 2-door GT coupe - but Porsche need to recover losses I assume they've incurred given the trials and tribulations we've all encountered. To scale down production and ramp up Macan EV production tells me that Porsche will follow the money (remember that the Cayenne saved the company once upon a time) first.

Pressure to go all out EV has waned thanks to indecisive and knee-jerk government policies and the disarray that a target of net zero has become. Six figure ($ / £) EVs in particular aren't going to be sustainable when cheaper alternatives exist within the same brand which let's be honest have more power and gadgets than most mere mortals actually require.

In the VW stable, Audi will be the tech leader (already is in some regards - notably lighting tech) and at a lower price point rather than Porsche (I don't buy Porsches for gadgery tech and suspect many other buyers are the same).

Time will tell I guess.

 

[whitex]

Nice idea but it's not what the masses (yes, like it or not our Porsches are mass produced) want at the end of the day.

Taycan is not he car for the masses. That was my point. It might have picked up more customers when it was the only EV in the Porsche stable, but once Macan EV was released, IMO it should become the niche technology test bed. Low volume, high price, makes it ideal to absorb early adopter recall costs (and yea, Porsche really needs to step up its game on OTA). If they leave the Taycan to be not the latest and greatest tech, it will really become the niche against other Porsche EV's as well as other manufacturers. If they are looking to justify $125K-$300K price tags, it really needs to be something special, not yesterday's tech that can be outran from any red light by a $40K Model 3 Performance. The latest generation of buyers is not quite as willing to shell out money just for the badge.

 

[chun]

True. Resource management is always an issue. However, so is risk management. Releasing new tech on a low volume, high profit margin car first, then following it up with other models, is a risk management strategy. Perhaps in this case Porsche felt they had to rush the Macan EV out the door as they had to stop selling the ICE model in EU? Or maybe the ICE Macan sales started dipping anyways, as it is pretty old technology, and they were faced with a choice of new Macan EV or ICE and chose EV based on COVID era customer demand.

They are trying to compete in China, where western EVs (non-tesla) are very not desired. And it's understandable, when other brands offer more technologically advanced cars. And what better car to compete with, then their most sold car? It's why the macan got the latest bells and whistles, and the refresh taycan didn't.

I really am curious if next quarter come, they will actually have any success with this Macan. While it is nice, it is very expensive, and frankly for that amount of money you can get other SUVs, and better. In USA you can have a Rivian (maxed out 3 motors 110.000 - 800hp vs a Macan turbo at 130.000+ not even fully specced out) for the same money more or less, and in china they have more competition than they can handle...

 

[Murph7355]

Interesting. I could imagine, that we have a massive price war coming in the next 10 years. The batteries getting cheaper, and the cars are cheaper to make than ICEs.

Any prediction, when we will see the first BEV model cheaper than the equivialent ICE model?

Never ?

As noted, this was a prime opportunity to crank up prices generally. Rather than BEV ease up, ICE seems to have risen.

They'll rise together now, regardless of what happens to battery prices is my guess.

 

[chun]

Never ?

As noted, this was a prime opportunity to crank up prices generally. Rather than BEV ease up, ICE seems to have risen.

They'll rise together now, regardless of what happens to battery prices is my guess.

Will they though? Chinese car brands will start producing in europe, so their cars will be everywhere at a lower price tag, with a faster producing cycle, with the latest technology. BYD is opening a plant in Hungary, Chery in Spain, Great Wall Motors is also coming to europe, Geely is coming to poland with both car plant and battery plant, and CATL have also announced that they are looking at an european site.

There will be competiton, quite a lot of it, so I don't know how prices could rise. 90% of the time, competition means lower prices for customers, and you can bet your ass that chinse brands will try to undercut at every corner the prices of traditional automakers.

 

[Murph7355]

....
I really am curious if next quarter come, they will actually have any success with this Macan. While it is nice, it is very expensive, and frankly for that amount of money you can get other SUVs, and better. In USA you can have a rivian for the same money more or less, and in china they have more competition than they can handle...

In the UK, short term there'll be a wait. We are utter fools for "new shiny".

Beyond that will depend on what our new govt does with EV subsidies. Personally I cannot see them doing anything at all for 50k++ cars. So I can see them going the exact same way as Taycans have.

Maybe very marginally better, but Porsche either need to rethink volumes and/or prices.

They are doubly screwed here as they *have* to sell more EVs to prevent fines on ICE sales.

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