Depreciation of the 2025 Taycan

[Singularity]

I want to share my thoughts regarding depreciation of the updated Taycan. As I decided to swap my 2020 Taycan to the updated version, I've been thinking about this a bit.

First of all, there are obviously a multitude of reasons why the Taycan has depreciated significantly but to me there are a couple of key reasons that are not talked about enough:

1. It is a car model that was launched during the largest money printing episode in modern history. There was a lot of money in circulation and a lot of people could afford to buy a Taycan, or at least thought they could afford one.

2. Taycan is a mainstream luxury car. The amounts sold are massive. Someone countered my argument in Facebook saying "why doesn't the 911 depreciate like this?", well, the most important rule in economics is supply and demand. I looked at the amount of 2020+ Taycan's in sale in Finland and the amount of year model 2020+ 911s on sale in Finland and the current amounts are: Taycans on sale: 173, 911s on sale: 18. People bought a huge amount of Taycan's during the zero interest rate period but not a lot of 911s.

3. Now we live in a new economic reality. Every single mainstream luxury car is depreciating a lot because so many are selling them, and fewer are buying them. Model to model there are of course differences, but broadly speaking the same economic reality affects everything. Note that it is important to differentiate between mainstream luxury cars and niche luxury cars. Niche luxury cars are not necessarily hit in the same way, as they might not have experienced such a boom during the zero interest rate period.

Now with that being said, let's discuss the reality of the 2025 Taycan. It is more expensive, fairly competitive in its specs to rivals and it has been launched during a new tighter economic reality. Also there are other contributing factors such as some people being worried about Taycans reliability.

What all of this means is that the order amounts of the new Taycan will likely be significantly smaller than with the old Taycan and therefore I do not expect us to see boatloads of them on sale in a year or two. The used car market of the new Taycan will have a far smaller supply than what we currently see with the old Taycan. Also the specs of the new Taycan will probably hold up well to rivals in the next few years at least, which is a less of a factor but a factor nonetheless.

So to finalize my point, I believe the 2025 Taycan will depreciate a bit slower than the old Taycan, as it is launched during a tighter economic reality and the used car market for that car will have a significantly smaller supply than we are now seeing with the old one. I look forward to seeing stats of how many of these Porsche are selling, as I strongly believe the sales will be smaller than the Taycan sales in the past.

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[MAPC]

Interesting thought process....and you make many good points. The variable will be what the macro economic climate will look like in 2026, 2027, 2028 when the 2025 resales will occur.

 

[Caraholic]

You make some good point however I still think it will follow the typical luxury sedan deprecation which is about 50% in three years. The 911 depreciation will return back to normal as well its just taking longer. People holding onto them thinking they are safe will be in for a rude awakening. People forget they used to have terrible depreciation as well. Not as bad as the sedan but your were still loosing tens of thousands in just a year or two.

 

[utsteve98]

I believe based on OP comments, this could potentially help alleviate depreciation on current model.

2025 is significantly more expensive. Interest rates are still high. This makes a used model which is significantly cheaper that is fairly similar to 2025 attractive.

Also, anyone looking to get in an EV at the low 100k range will not find any competitor new or used that even comes close to the Taycan. As more EVs hit the market in the next few years then we will see competitors closing the gap.

 

[mutanthands]

Given the current climate (for the UK at least), I think the 2025 Taycan's depreciation curve will be pretty similar.
There's a lot of misinformation regarding EV's, peddled by tabloid sh*trags / social media, which is starting to take its toll with a bit of EV backlash. We still have a cost of living crisis, economic stagnation and high interest rates. In the UK we still have a few incentives if run through a business or salary sacrifice, but they're less and less, and not everyone can take advantage. There are also more alternatives out there. Less sales can also be seen as less demand, as I don't think the Taycan is limited by supply chain issues anymore.

If you can't take advantage of the tax breaks or more money than you know what to do with, a sane person would just pick up a pre-facelift model at a vastly reduced price. The range isn't quite as good, but it's arguably the nicer looking car, and still an excellent drive. As usteve98 said above, hopefully slowing down current model depreciation.

 

[007]

I’m pretty sure the low used prices of our 2020-2024 Taycans will have an effect on 2025+ used Taycans, pulling them downwards with them.

 

[Brombaer1971]

The complex thing about the future is its uncertainity

 

[n3ophyte]

Surely the new Electric Macan will hurt sales of the facelift Taycan? After all, the original Taycan was the only Porsche EV available during the first 4 years of its life.

 

[Singularity]

Surely the new Electric Macan will hurt sales of the facelift Taycan? After all, the opriginal Taycan was the only Porsche EV available during the first 4 years of its life.

Good point. It will definitely affect it to some degree. Which is a further reason why the used car supply for the new gen Taycan will be smaller in the coming years. Of course it means there will be used Macan EVs out there also, so it's hard to say to what degree this affects the equation.

 

[ShiftyWolf]

IMO, since the Taycan was Porsche's first full electric, they didn't know exactly what the response would be. Looking back, it seems they over saturated the market a bit and now we have many unsold Taycans stagnating on dealer lots.

With Porsche being intelligent people, I expect they will take the lessons learned and apply that to a much more successful roll put of the Taycan .2 and the Macan EV. While I think the Macan will grab some Taycan sales, I expect its biggest impact to be grabbing people who might otherwise have been looking at an ICE Macan or other crossover.

Of course, I'm a car enthusiast and have also been accused of being too optimistic

 

[Scandinavian]

IMO, since the Taycan was Porsche's first full electric, they didn't know exactly what the response would be. Looking back, it seems they over saturated the market a bit and now we have many unsold Taycans stagnating on dealer lots.

IMO I do not think Porsche oversupplied the Market at all. The demand was clearly there. And very high expectations

However the product did not live up to the high expectations of a Porsche! Many disappointments
Range was a disappointment especially in winter
Constant problems with Software and recalls made people sell the car.
Too many niggles all along the way and only updates via workshop. visits made people fed up.
The car is also quite large for some countries parking, etc and many change car again.
The lack of suitable, or unreliable charging infrastructure in certain countries made an impact.
A number of Taycans bought because of favourable tax incentives rather than EV desire.

Time will tell if .2 version will see better more stable demand. It will be much lower for sure due to pricing as well as a complete new model in 4-5 years!

 

[ShiftyWolf]

IMO I do not think Porsche oversupplied the Market at all. The demand was clearly there. And very high expectations

I should have specified US Market in my post. Certainly a number of owners have soured on the ownership experience; I'm just talking about the new cars sitting on the lots here. Remember also, we active and informed forums members are very much the exception as vehicle owners.

 

[JimBob]

I would add an additional point. What is an out of warranty Taycan worth? Historically older Porsches had value because of a cadre of enthusiasts. I don't see where this is the case with Taycan's. You can buy a CPO, but the warranty is limited and these are expensive cars to repair. So you lease, but when they come back on the market the first issues are still there.

 

[WuffvonTrips]

Another point of reference is Porsche Finance quotes with RV's. They no longer appear to be on the Porsche website, but they used lower % RV's than for Panameras according to the few examples given. These were refresh models. I'm guessing that they (being for 3 year terms) factored in the anticipated impact of the full next-gen Taycan on values.

 

[Tucson_Jim]

I would add an additional point. What is an out of warranty Taycan worth? Historically older Porsches had value because of a cadre of enthusiasts. I don't see where this is the case with Taycan's. You can buy a CPO, but the warranty is limited and these are expensive cars to repair. So you lease, but when they come back on the market the first issues are still there.

I agree completely. A Taycan out of warranty is a ticking expense bomb. Maybe pull the wheels, stand them on end and use them as a storage battery.

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