Depreciation

[f1eng]

Back in the mid to late 1960s my mate decided he wanted a 911 instead of the Lotus Elan SE he had.
He decided he wanted one 12 months old but was only prepared to pay half the new price.

He found one after quite a long search, a 2.2 l 911S which would be worth a fortune now!

He didn't keep it long because it got broken into and the price of the replacement quarterlight was so much he told the dealer they were thieves.

The reality is that collectors cars are a fashion item and what will come into fashion and appreciate hugely is not obvious because it is fashion not logic which drives it.

I believe the Porsche approach to making parts modular and servicable has been applied to the Taycan so I see no reason it would be like so many digital devices which either become deliberately degraded by software updates or are hardware incompatible with them.

Sponsored

 

[Deleted member 6348]

The biggest impending threat to Taycan values is the Macan EV. New platform. New motors. Even faster charging. Positioned as a cheaper EV Porsche. An excellent Macan EV will cannibalize Taycan sales and reduce used Taycan demand.

The EVs that are landing are quite the leap. My new F150 Lightning throws down better efficiency numbers than my Taycan 4S did and it’s got the aerodynamics of a brick.

Until solid state batteries arrive, there’s no radical battery changes on deck, but the newer platforms are/will be substantially more efficient.

 

[f1eng]

My new F150 Lightning throws down better efficiency numbers than my Taycan 4S did and it’s got the aerodynamics of a brick.

It is more complex with EVs than IC engined cars because if an average road use load case is used to spec the motors, inverters and battery a high efficiency should be straightforward but using the full performance for a long time, and I am meaning 10s of minutes, not hours, may not be possible.

This almost certainly isn’t a problem with a truck, SUV or normal car but it would be for many people using a sports car.

IMO we sacrifice efficiency in return for a potential high load cycle when buying a Taycan, which may well not be needed for 99% of the time, but the price we pay for this sort of car.

The Macan is a SUV and will probably have a design load cycle way easier than the Taycan, so will almost certainly be more efficient.

But it is an SUV and I have never had need of one of them!

 

[W1NGE]

The biggest impending threat to Taycan values is the Macan EV. New platform. New motors. Even faster charging. Positioned as a cheaper EV Porsche. An excellent Macan EV will cannibalize Taycan sales and reduce used Taycan demand.

The EVs that are landing are quite the leap. My new F150 Lightning throws down better efficiency numbers than my Taycan 4S did and it’s got the aerodynamics of a brick.

Until solid state batteries arrive, there’s no radical battery changes on deck, but the newer platforms are/will be substantially more efficient.

Not sure that's how it will pan out.

Macan will not be a sports tourer or saloon - too highly slung for that - so different use cases for most folk who purchase.

Macan will be a bigger seller - that's the case today for the ICE versions which already top Porsche sales charts - so the EV will not be any different.

My wife has a new Macan T arriving this month and no doubt will jump to a Macan EV when the time is right. She already prefers the Macan to the Taycan as it is higher off the ground (obviously).

Faster charging - take with a pinch of salt - we have that in our Taycan's already (software patched) - and what is 'faster' and what control do we have when at a public EVSE to ensure max throughput - zip all is the answer.

Macan EV offers a revised battery matrix and a higher gross capacity (~ 100kW) - no wonder it will have a headline of increased range.

 

[Fish Fingers]

I always assume anything more than 50% back after 3 years with average miles (10-12k pa) is doing ok.

I expect the Taycan to comfortably beat that.

A few pointers from me.

1. Porsche putting prices up when others are reducing them helps residuals.

2. I reckon the Taycan is saving me c£3600+ pa (fuel/tax/servicing/brakes etc) compared to what I may have bought as an ICE alternative (say M3 / M4).
That's about £15k saved over 4 years.

3. If I were buying used, I would pay more for an EV, due to running costs and concern of ICE cars becoming obsolete.

I will probably keep the car anyway, cause I love it. ?

 

[whan]

I think a reasonable/conservative base case expectation is that the Taycan is going to depreciate like panameras or cayennes in the past, which is to say - a lot. Luxury vehicles, besides sports cars and one-off cases like G wagons, do terribly in general.

A lot of it is because the maintenance on these vehicles is quite high - those that can afford the maintenance, will often buy new ones since they value the latest features, thus the demand for used luxury vehicles is low. Sports cars avoid this somewhat because they are more aspirational - people grow up dreaming of owning a 911 and desire used ones as well. They don't usually grow up dreaming of a cayenne or panamera

Now, the Taycan could have two factors that help negate that.

1: EVs are seeming to have lower maintenance costs vs. ICE cars. If that generally holds true for the Taycan and other luxury EVs more broadly (IE not a ton of costs related to non-powertrain items), it could help boost used market desirability

2: EVs are currently aspirational vehicles - many people want to specifically get an EV. With the limited number of options out there, this helps with used market desirability. We saw this with Tesla resale values. This isn't going to hold forever as the EV market grows, but is a help probably over the next 5 years

That said, as others have mentioned, there is the downside risk from EV technology evolving quickly, and putting additional depreciation pressure on earlier EVs. Of course, I think this is a factor, but has some nuance to it as well. The key question is how fast will advancement happen, and do those advancements really help desirability of the new models vs. older ones? For example, I'd argue improvements in 0-60 times for EVs will do little. Given they already are a pretty big jump from ICE cars, for most people having a 0.5 or even 1 second faster 0-60 in the new model isn't going to really make the old model "obsolete". Similarly, for weight, most people don't really care (that includes a lot of non-enthusiast Taycan buyers) - so many people buy heavier SUVs over their car counterparts.

The only areas IMO that could significantly affect depreciation are range and charging speed. Improvements in those categories could drive big demand for the newer cars

 

[Marmolata]

Me too, I keep cars I like a long time so depreciation hasn't bothered me except on the one car I sold after a short time because the seat gave me backache and the climate contol was mega horrible in winter!

did this happen to be an Audi? i had same problem with an Audi had to sell after 6 months due to terrible seat design

 

[Spyerx]

Porsche sedans and suvs have always had massive depreciation curves. So have most other luxury sedans. Porsche 911s have held values better, but only the special editions (ie gt cars) have done the best over time.

These are the facts.

So yes, I fully expect my CT4 to depreciate like a rock.

Unfortunately the last few years have been abnormal and people forgot these facts. Good news is we are getting back to normal and I look forward to that, its better as a buyer of fun cars To pickup that 2 year lease return for 60-70% of new with a longer warranty.

BTW, I saw a 21 CT turbo s listed at a dealer for 162k. It has a 210k MSRP! 10k miles. Nice spec. Tempting to swap my ct4 for it! Which would probably sell for 85-90 with 118k MSRP.

 

[f1eng]

did this happen to be an Audi? i had same problem with an Audi had to sell after 6 months due to terrible seat design

BMW M3, I ended up using our 950cc Polo L we got for the kids to learn in instead - much more comfortable seat and a crude but easily adjustable heater.

 

[Moonstone]

The biggest impending threat to Taycan values is the Macan EV. New platform. New motors. Even faster charging. Positioned as a cheaper EV Porsche. An excellent Macan EV will cannibalize Taycan sales and reduce used Taycan demand.

The EVs that are landing are quite the leap. My new F150 Lightning throws down better efficiency numbers than my Taycan 4S did and it’s got the aerodynamics of a brick.

Until solid state batteries arrive, there’s no radical battery changes on deck, but the newer platforms are/will be substantially more efficient.

Totally depends on the buyers reasons for purchase. I keep seeing comparisons with other EVs. I didn't buy the Taycan because it was an EV. I traded in an M5 and bought it because it is Porsche's equivalent car and is much nicer than a Panamera.

I have no interest in Macan regardless of what kind of powerplant it has.

As for depreciation, I guess many people bought their cars when the market was experiencing an artificial blip and are now lamenting the normalisation of the market. Whilst I sympathise, surely people went in with their eyes open and didn't really think it was going to last forever??

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

BTW, I saw a 21 CT turbo s [...] Tempting to swap my ct4 for it!

Why would you do that? Genuinely curious. The 4CT is 90% of the car for 50% of the price. The power/launching gets commonplace/blase fairly quickly.

 

[andb]

Why would you do that?

I also wonder, in my view the Turbo spec and some more options make the Taycan feel like a better car than a base CT4.

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

I also wonder, in my view the Turbo spec and some more options make the Taycan feel like a better car than a base CT4.

I was arguing the opposite. The "base" car is definitely a lot more than its half-Turbo-price would suggest.

 

[Archimedes]

Why would you do that? Genuinely curious. The 4CT is 90% of the car for 50% of the price. The power/launching gets commonplace/blase fairly quickly.

0-60 in 2.5 seconds never gets ‘commonplace/blasé’, much less fairly quickly…

 

[WasserGKuehlt]

0-60 in 2.5 seconds never gets ‘commonplace/blasé’, much less fairly quickly…

?‍
I guess I'll never know.

Sponsored