Power Loss Update

[kort]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha….

What a joke. You have no clue what you’re taking about…it’s not my firm…it’s ANSI and ISO standards….

kind of how like you have no clue regarding the issues I am facing with charging at EA chargers?
and despite that cluelessness you continue to make ill informed remarks

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[Jhenson29]

kind of how like you have no clue regarding the issues I am facing with charging at EA chargers?
and despite that cluelessness you continue to make ill informed remarks

Nope. That one’s on you also. Why don’t you go answer those questions on that thread?

 

[DGT]

kind of how like you have no clue regarding the issues I am facing with charging at EA chargers?
and despite that cluelessness you continue to make ill informed remarks

OK - we are all convinced that you have a lot of issues.

 

[fullmetalbaal]

Not trying to stoke a fire or start an argument. If you're convinced that this never will happen to you, feel free to ignore my post.

For those that wonder how likely this is to happen, I did a simplified failure rate analysis based on the information available and some simple assumptions. I was hoping to answer some questions on my end: I'm picking up a Taycan in ~1 week that may or may not have the recall update already installed - am I willing to go on a longer road trip with it? etc.

Sharing this in case it's helpful.

So, with the following assumptions:
- using the Taycan's sold data (from Porsche), assuming linear increase over a period of months
- average miles driven per year (USDOT, adjusted to pandemic, and also to car type and income groups)
- using NHTSA reported incidents, and w/ sensitivity on % of actual events reported
- the events happen independently, and are not triggered by duration of drive, or correlated to specific equipment or driving patterns
- the events happen proportional to miles driven (vs. time spent in the car)

I get an expected rate of 0.00003 - 0.00005 events per mile driven.

Simplifying it a bit, the average Taycan owner has ~1 in 3 chance of this happening during a normal year of driving. I did the for the US data, I have no idea whether this translates to other regions.

This is higher than I expected, but it explains why Porsche reacted very quickly with a recall at a time when there had been a relatively small number of reported events, with ZERO casualties or even damage. It also squares with the fact that we have both drivers that have gone 2 years without seeing it, but also a number of reports of drivers seeing it 2-3 times.

Is this high enough to affect your behavior? That's up to you. Personally, I'm going to wait and ensure my car has the update before going on multi-day road trips on roads I am not familiar with, but for local driving I think it's fine, same with road trips where I know what to expect.

 

[Jhenson29]

@fullmetalbaal I’m not sure I’ve seen any posts on here from anyone suggesting they think this will never happen to them, but maybe I missed them.

I’ve seen a lot suggesting this issue isn’t sufficient enough to stop them from driving their car. But everyone driving their car while aware of the issue is making that decision. And it sounds like you made the same. (At least to some extent).

The last two assumptions you make, I would sum up as random and evenly distributed across the driven miles? Yes? Correct me if I’m wrong.
Those are probably the biggest question marks. But in the absence of better data, I don’t have a different suggestion.

Thanks for the post.

 

[DGT]

Not trying to stoke a fire or start an argument. If you're convinced that this never will happen to you, feel free to ignore my post.

For those that wonder how likely this is to happen, I did a simplified failure rate analysis based on the information available and some simple assumptions. I was hoping to answer some questions on my end: I'm picking up a Taycan in ~1 week that may or may not have the recall update already installed - am I willing to go on a longer road trip with it? etc.

Sharing this in case it's helpful.

So, with the following assumptions:
- using the Taycan's sold data (from Porsche), assuming linear increase over a period of months
- average miles driven per year (USDOT, adjusted to pandemic, and also to car type and income groups)
- using NHTSA reported incidents, and w/ sensitivity on % of actual events reported
- the events happen independently, and are not triggered by duration of drive, or correlated to specific equipment or driving patterns
- the events happen proportional to miles driven (vs. time spent in the car)

I get an expected rate of 0.00003 - 0.00005 events per mile driven.

Simplifying it a bit, the average Taycan owner has ~1 in 3 chance of this happening during a normal year of driving. I did the for the US data, I have no idea whether this translates to other regions.

This is higher than I expected, but it explains why Porsche reacted very quickly with a recall at a time when there had been a relatively small number of reported events, with ZERO casualties or even damage. It also squares with the fact that we have both drivers that have gone 2 years without seeing it, but also a number of reports of drivers seeing it 2-3 times.

Is this high enough to affect your behavior? That's up to you. Personally, I'm going to wait and ensure my car has the update before going on multi-day road trips on roads I am not familiar with, but for local driving I think it's fine, same with road trips where I know what to expect.

So what was your build date - more specifically, did it go into production before or after June 25th? If before and your car requires the update, I'm pretty sure the "fix" has to be applied at the port before it can be released for transport (open recall/safety issue). If after, the updated software was installed at the factory during production.

 

[fullmetalbaal]

@fullmetalbaal I’m not sure I’ve seen any posts on here from anyone suggesting they think this will never happen to them, but maybe I missed them.

I’ve seen a lot suggesting this issue isn’t sufficient enough to stop them from driving their car. But everyone driving their car while aware of the issue is making that decision. And it sounds like you made the same. (At least to some extent).

The last two assumptions you make, I would sum up as random and evenly distributed across the driven miles? Yes? Correct me if I’m wrong.
Those are probably the biggest question marks. But in the absence of better data, I don’t have a different suggestion.

Thanks for the post.

Yes, I think those are equivalent statements to my assumptions.
I was wondering about this a bit. There are reported incidents of people hitting this within the first weeks of ownership, and some folks hitting it months later. Some examples on longer drives, some within an hour of departure (most have very little detail, so this makes this very hard).

Furthermore, I strongly believe if there were a particular behavior that triggered this, Porsche would likely have communicated it (unless it's something less than helpful, like, driving >xx mph, with a very low xx).

We can be fairly certain it's not a specific combination of options/upgrades/configuration, or else Porsche would have clarified the "all Taycans impacted" statement that both Porsche and NHTSA made.

The one thing that strikes me: whether old or new Taycan, most reports are relatively recent - where early Taycans OK until some update changed things? But with a quickly growing install base, that might also just be a consequence of a quickly growing "fleet miles driven per day". There's not enough data publicly available to say either way. I'm leaning towards "this was always present in the cars".



RE: "This will never happen" - I think some posts equated it to being afraid of a meteor strike ... or not going outside for fear of being hit by a tree. (as an aside, I've been hit by a tree, do not recommend). Regardless, I didn't mean to misquote or misrepresent, my point was only: if you're interested, here's what I'm sharing - but if you think it's no big deal and we're all worrying about nothing - that's fine too, but I'm not interested in poking that bear.

 

[fullmetalbaal]

So what was your build date - more specifically, did it go into production before or after June 25th? If before and your car requires the update, I'm pretty sure the "fix" has to be applied at the port before it can be released for transport.

Build date was 6/22, so it would be the latter. And that's exactly what I'm expecting will happen. But it wouldn't be the first time if they hand me the car and ask me to come back within x days because "the shop is all backed up". IF that latter scenario happened, I wanted to have an informed opinion of whether I should take the keys or not. And given the math, I will.

 

[DGT]

Build date was 6/22, so it would be the latter. And that's exactly what I'm expecting will happen. But it wouldn't be the first time if they hand me the car and ask me to come back within x days because "the shop is all backed up". IF that latter scenario happened, I wanted to have an informed opinion of whether I should take the keys or not. And given the math, I will.

Get it, and would want to be sure myself. But again, I'm pretty sure it will have to be installed before it can be released for transport. Someone on here probably knows for certain. If for some reason it's not, the dealership does get a listing of "open campaigns" for cars coming from the port - including any missing electronics. And if it is installed at the port, hopefully no long delay during PDI.

 

[fullmetalbaal]

Get it, and would want to be sure myself. But again, I'm pretty sure it will have to be installed before it can be released for transport. Someone on here probably knows for certain. If for some reason it's not, the dealership does get a listing of "open campaigns" for cars coming from the port - including any missing electronics. And if it is installed at the port, hopefully no long delay during PDI.

It's been sitting at "port entry" for 2-3 days now - I'm hoping that this is what they are doing.
(or else, it's hopefully just Track Your Dream being slow again)

 

[chrisk]

Build date was 6/22, so it would be the latter. And that's exactly what I'm expecting will happen. But it wouldn't be the first time if they hand me the car and ask me to come back within x days because "the shop is all backed up". IF that latter scenario happened, I wanted to have an informed opinion of whether I should take the keys or not. And given the math, I will.

It is against federal law for dealers to release a new car to you without closing the recall.
There is also a stop delivery document as part of the NHTSA packet. Here is the link https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2021/RCMN-21V486-8446.pdf

 

[fullmetalbaal]

It is against federal law for dealers to release a new car to you without closing the recall.
There is also a stop delivery document as part of the NHTSA packet. Here is the link https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2021/RCMN-21V486-8446.pdf

Looks like I did all the math for nothing and should have google'd this instead
Well, I was curious anyway - and maybe this is helpful for folks waiting to get their car updated.

 

[Jhenson29]

Looks like I did all the math for nothing

Not for nothing. The rest of us appreciate it. ?

 

[daveo4EV]

Not for nothing. The rest of us appreciate it. ?

@fullmetalbaal thank you - I agree with @Jhenson29 those who’ve seen me on the forum know I love me some good data….

your analysis is helpful and refreshing and places some context to the issue.

time/effort is appreciated.

 

[benver]

...
Simplifying it a bit, the average Taycan owner has ~1 in 3 chance of this happening during a normal year of driving.
...

That sounds really high. Let's assume for a minute 7,500 Taycans are sold until now, and sales are going on for 2 years. That means the average age of any of the 7,500 cars is 1 year. Your chance means ~2,500 owners would have experienced it. I expect the media to go ballistic when that would be the case. (I know I don't take multiple occurrences for one owner into account).

Probably more realistic: 250 occurrences of those 7,500 sold, that's 1 in 30. Still very high, don't get me wrong.

For the record: I have driven 7,000 miles(in 4 months ), haven't got it (yet?). Car is at the PC for the AMB5 update now.

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