[opinion] - hmmm…VW/Audi/Porsche may be in trouble…

[ze_shark]

In Porsche's biggest market, EU incl. Germany, BEVs marketshare is now at 15.6% (2025-07 YTD), up from 12.5% last year i.e. very moderate growth. China is way higher but nobody can make money there, and the US only at 7.5%, supported by vanishing incentives.

These are brutal, broad market figures, and Porsche must have concluded that, in the sub-segments where it can/wants to play, BEVs are not viable as a sole option for the coming years.So they are refactoring their investment profileand shifting CAPEX back to ICE/PHEV.

I don't think it is a matter of fwd/bwd technology.
Their BEV transition has proven to be too early, and PHEVs seem to resonate better with the customership.

Porsche mgt will not survive if they stay the course on products which won't sell.

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[chun]

What is next, VWAG acquiring Rivian or Lucid, Porsche slapping their badge on reskinned flagship car from that company? Maybe it will be called PORSCHE, just like AUDI brand (which is a spinoff from Audi).

The Rivian partnership is also delayed / on hold; as VW groups just figured out that Rivian’s way won’t work on ICE cars, where’s they want same software / ECUs in all of their lineup, ICE, hybrids and the few EVs they make.

The deal was anyway only for the Western market. In Asia / China, VW called defeat, and are re-badging Chinese cars - new VW, new Audi, etc - all built by other companies, they’re never even touch a VW manufacturing line.

 

[chun]

Porsche mgt will not survive if they stay the course on products which won't sell.

They won’t survive like this either; when they start losing mind-share, because in the mind of people they will become the slow old people car that is loud and left behind by a familiy minivan like whitex said

The right move would have been to partnership with CATL for batteries, instead of buying battery companies that were going bankrupt.

The right move would have been to adopt newer technology faster, more agile development. They have the service centers already, they could have absolutely supported a more agile built car platform.

Or you know, work with Rimac, since you own them anyway?

 

[ze_shark]

Your arguments do not make sense if you accept the fact that the premium BEV market is too small for Porsche to invest in BEVs only.

There is no battery technology available today or tomorrow which changes that reality.

 

[Scandinavian]

The right move would have been to adopt newer technology faster, more agile development. They have the service centers already, they could have absolutely supported a more agile built car platform.

Perhaps it would have been a too large step for Porsche to go from their supply mode, where subcontractors supply subsystems with their own ECU and software. There are over 100 ECU’s in the Taycan now and most of them from a third party, Bosch, Siemens etc etc.

It will be very interesting to see how BMW will fare with their new release of the iX3 and Heart of Joy architecture. I believe they now have reduced the system to only have 4 superECU’s?

I never heard any plans from VW to go this route except for the Rivian cooperation? If that now is canned, there will be little hope.

 

[Raphie]

The Taycan is an Audi with Porsche
Sauce/trim. Their DNA was 911 / 718. The Macan ICE was exceptionial because of the flat six, but Porsche sauce is not enough to charge 2 to 3 times as much in EV land for effectively a pimped VW/Audi.

 

[whitex]

Your arguments do not make sense if you accept the fact that the premium BEV market is too small for Porsche to invest in BEVs only.

There is no battery technology available today or tomorrow which changes that reality.

Well, therein lies the problem. The BEV car market is not big enough, yet it devalues the Porsche ICE offerings as superior road cars. While most Porsche target market market doesn't want to buy an BEV, they are turned off by the fact that a soccer-mom in a budget priced (compared to Porsche) Model Y Performance leaves the ICE Porsche in the rear view mirror at every red light without even trying. It doesn't help that the new EV cars also happen to have blank-sheet-design handling which comes pretty darn close to the old tech. The only thing that is holding EV's from completely dominating is the weight of the batteries. Dilemma, dilemma...

 

[ze_shark]

It doesn't help that the new EV cars also happen to have blank-sheet-design handling which comes pretty darn close to the old tech.

Do they though ? With all that torque deluge come high demands in terms of chassis integrity, and Taycan is an absolute exception in terms of coping with poise. There is more to handling than just having a low CoG. BEV chassis are often basic because all these cars can afford to be is a battery pack with 4 wheels somehow attached to that slate.

Go ask consumers what is holding them up from buying.
Prices are still high, convenience is still low unless you own a single family house.
It is surely not weight that is keeping market share in the high single digits in the US, or mid teens in Europe. Definitely not.

 

[Sly_North]

The Macan ICE was exceptionial because of the flat six

I'm sry, what?? No flat-6 ever made it in a Macan. It was a L4 or a V6. The petrol V6 was a Porsche engine up to 2018, then replaced with an Audi V6 EA839.
The Macan is a surprisingly capable car, especially for a SUV. Mine could take as much Gs as my Taycan, if not more; thanks to being lighter.

 

[daveo4EV]

I'm sry, what?? No flat-6 ever made it in a Macan. It was a L4 or a V6. The petrol V6 was a Porsche engine up to 2018, then replaced with an Audi V6 EA839.
The Macan is a surprisingly capable car, especially for a SUV. Mine could take as much Gs as my Taycan, if not more; thanks to being lighter.

the Macan is the "most affordable" Porsche - they sell of ton of them - it's the badge (or it was) - I suspect the base model is the the lion's share…

it's mostly a rebranded Audi Q3/Q5 with some well done Porsche suspension tuning and slightly less cargo space that competitive offerings, and the Porsche styling/design language. That only takes you so far…

Porsche is in the classic dammed if you do, dammed if you don't situation - and has done the predictical corp. thing of taking what appears to be a "conservative" path forward in an attempt to "save" what's left - the problem is they've committed to the shrinking market going forward and will be left behind…volume is life in this market - and they were already low volume - they are about to be lower…

 

[Sly_North]

... it's mostly a rebranded Audi Q3/Q5 with some well done Porsche suspension tuning ...

Sure. So were the Audi RS2 and the Mercedes 500 E. "Tuned by Porsche" can make boring cars become alive and fun. The Macan is fun, only issue is it's too high which hides some of the driving emotion.
The Taycan is more fun, much more alive and able to dance/shake the rear, definitely. Yet my Macan S was able to corner as well as my Taycan in terms of lateral Gs - probably due to lots of electronic control on the Macan, and the weight of the Taycan.

 

[Raphie]

You’re right V6, I’ve got a 2023 Macan S, Taycan 4s , just sold my 992 Carrera and picking up my 992.2 GTS T-Hybrid next week.

 

[ferdiaz]

Go ask consumers what is holding them up from buying.

And that's the only valid question in this riddle.

I've always wanted to try and own a BEV. But the big stopper for me was that I live in a city, and I'd have nowhere to charge it overnight.

Recently, I was able to snatch a rental contract for a spot in an underground parking that came available, and which included a wall charging outlet.

Immediately after that, I began looking for a Taycan CT (which I should be receiving next week).

So yeah, convenience and access to overnight electricity was what was holding me back. With that out of the way, BEV ownership now looks extremely attractive to me.

 

[ze_shark]

Porsche is in the classic dammed if you do, dammed if you don't situation - and has done the predictical corp. thing of taking what appears to be a "conservative" path forward in an attempt to "save" what's left - the problem is they've committed to the shrinking market going forward and will be left behind…volume is life in this market - and they were already low volume - they are about to be lower…

By 2027, Porsche will have 4 BEV model, Taycan, Macan, 718, Cayenne. You make it sound like they abandon the BEV segment while the only real (and mere) postponement is K1.

Shrinking market maybe, but slowly so, and the TAM for them must be around 80% ICE/PHEV, and conversion pace has notably slowed down.

The numbers are there to prove it, going all-in on BEVs was several years too early. Arguing the opposite confines to ideology. Where they can be faulted is that they tried to get too cute with the Macan & 718 transitions. Others like BMW continue to hedge, and that may prove very wise.

 

[ze_shark]

it's mostly a rebranded Audi Q3/Q5 with some well done Porsche suspension tuning and slightly less cargo space that competitive offerings, and the Porsche styling/design language. That only takes you so far…

Q5 has a transverse engine layout, Macan has (had) a longitudinal engine which enables rear torque bias. One of the deep mods in the platform which makes all the difference in dynamic terms.

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