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Catching the falling knife...

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Jupeman

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The value NOW is something in between, if at all, between what the seller is asking and what you're willing to pay. I don't understand what you're asking. Next month or week is anybody's guess, but as far as today, the dealer already gave you your answer, and your wallet will confirm it.
Do you take the first bid? I usually do not. He's moved every day...
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Avantgarde

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As posted elsewhere, I went to my dealer earlier this month intrigued by the idea of adding a Taycan to my stable. Test drives in a RWD and 4S had me believing these were not just great EVs, they were great cars. I think everyone here agrees that the dynamics are great.

In pondering what to do, I dug in more and found a 6k mile MY20 Turbo S at what seemed like a pretty low price vs. others advertised. This had me reading this forum, Rennlist, and whatever I can find to understand the market a little better. I turn now to this sage group for some extra guidance.

Two concerns with buying any Taycan today, new or used:
1) are they ticking maintenance time bombs, particularly out of warranty (Who here would confidently own this car out of warranty?)
2) Does the rapid, granted normal for a car of this type, depreciation simply not align to concerns around #1 and the evolution of EV tech and Porsche's sophistication with them? In other words, is there even a normal depreciation curve for these or does value go to very low/zero outside of warranty or battery warranty?

All this said, I made an offer on the MY20 Turbo S on Friday that was ~$5k lower than the dealer's offered deal (which was ~$900 better than their listed asking price). Dealer said "nah". Fast forward to Tuesday (today) and the dealer is now down ~$3.5k from their original offer (3.2%). But still above my offer. The fact I've done "not a lot" but respond to emails from the GM has me further doubting the market. This car has lost ~$85 per day in value each of the last three years. The deal as it stands now has one more year of factory warranty plus 3 years CPO (normal CPO and a +1 extra purchased). Effectively the car will be mine with 4 years, unlimited miles warranty.

My ultimate question is assuming one is happy to jump on the depreciation curve, which any current used buyer or new buyer has to be, where is the right place to grab it? Should a somewhat lightly spec'd MY20 Turbo S be under $100k? $110k? $120k?
How do you know “the car lost $80 per day in value”? 1- Do you know how much the original owner paid? Do you have the original MSRP (not how much the car would cost today brand new) and do you know how much off MSRP the original owner got?(yes i can assure you the owner got a very good discount on a 2020 MY taycan) 2- Are you reflecting the $7500 tax credit the original owner enjoyed? 3- It is a Turbo S, how is the build? Is part of your $80/day calc reflect $1/ day for leather wrapped sun visors, $3/day for some special color that no one cares about today yadi yada? This whole depreciation panic without a proper analysis is getting out of control and becoming a self full-filling prophecy. The better a deal people get the more questioning they become. “Will the car will be worth zero at this depreciation pace”. No it wont be for gods sake. 1st- your are looking at the highest highest part of the range, the model that carried almost 2X MSRP vs a RWD or 4S despite being a 10% more of a car- content wise. Second hand market will fair value that ridiculous premium at first market transaction. It is not the crazy depreciation of “Taycan” it is the depreciation of “$20K 2.5 seconds of overboost” or depreciation of “$9K ceramic brakes that get rarely used on an electric vehicle” you are looking at. 2- You are scared by the original owner’s loss but he was not screwed not nearly as much as you think he was screwed. S/he did not pay MSRP, mostly likely got an 8-10% discount over very old pricing (which saw multiple price increases since then), he got $7500 tax credit. Enjoyed a hyper car acceleration for 3 years, did not pay for gas etc etc. And all these comments around “yeah batteries degrade what do expect…” as if clutches, timing belts, turbochargers don’t. As a matter of fact batteries dont degrade as much as people fear. How many 10 year old teslas you heard requiring a battery swap yet? I did not hear many. How many 10 year old Porsches you heard needing a turbocharger change? I heard many. There is no fundamental depreciation issue with Taycan in the US.. at least yet. There is no logical justification either (battery, ev, solid state, software whatever). There is just a car park of 2020 Taycan Turbos that are “great deals” for very specific reasons + shallow fears and myths driven by that. OP please go find that “Great deal” 40-50% off MSRP on a 2022 reasonably specced 4S and let me know. You won’t. Because there is none (if there was my friend will grab it right away). Now my two cents, i would not buy turbo s 3 years old if was worried about battery degradation. They will have the most abused batteries for the same milage driven.
 

Wakesurfer

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these are not investments, these are depreciating assets , toys. Buy one because you want one and plan on losing another 30%-50% over next 2-3 years. Simple as that …
Yep. I call pretty much any vehicle a hunk of deprecating metal and plastic, and, sometimes leather. This is not a bad thing, just reality. Even for the so-called exotics I think that the auction companies make much more money than the actual buyers and sellers. Yes, there are some people that make money buying and selling exotics, antiques, etc., but for the majority when you consider insurance, storage, upkeep and the loss of the use of dollars for other investments we are dealing we hunks of depreciating metal and plastic and sometimes leather........................but they are fun to drive, and sometimes that is just plain old priceless.
 


whitex

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Should a somewhat lightly spec'd MY20 Turbo S be under $100k? $110k? $120k?
First, value is always relative "to whom". There is no such thing as universal value. Look for other similar cars on the market, that will tell you replacement value. As for your specific question, nobody here could even help you look for comparable since you did not include the spec, date of purchase, mileage, original MSRP, accident history. It's like like asking "Is the sticker price for 2024 Taycan Turbo S $195K, $210K, $250K?".
 

whitex

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Do you take the first bid? I usually do not. He's moved every day...
The question for you then is at which point will there be another buyer to whom the car's value will match the falling price. There is of course no exact answer, but probably a statistical distribution. For example, if you're waiting for the price to drop to $20K, there is an almost a certainty that someone else would pay more than that, therefore chances of you getting that car are effectively zero.

Look around, see what's out there. That will give you an idea of asking prices. The more cars sitting on lots, the longer they sit, the more you can negotiate. Remember, it costs the dealer roughly 1% of the price of the car every month it sits on their lot. Also, how strict are you on the spec? The looser your requirements, the better price you will be able to get because you could choose from more cars (e.g. if you found 10 TTS you want, you can negotiate much harder on the first 9 before succumbing to the full price of the last one, but if there is only one TTS out there for you, you will pay more, especially if the dealer sniffs it out).
 
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gramorris

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The UK market seems somewhat different to the US and skewed due to the specific tax breaks we have. But for me, in the market for a Taycan, the choice between a used and a new car has become very difficult - obvs only in my head.

Consider a heavily loaded Turbo, 18 months old, low mileage, available for £100k (list £149k) vs a £127k new GTS spec'd as I want it.

There is also a glut of cancelled orders in the market. New cars are available for Nov delivery as they're already in the build queue with a lock date sometime in Sept. This also explains the 150+ new cars on lots in black/grey colours with pretty standard options.

I'd echo it's a buyers market but expect and plan for standard depreciation. For what it's worth I'm likely to view this as a longer term car and run it through the depreciation curve, with extended warranty and just enjoy it.
 


Murph7355

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The UK market seems somewhat different to the US and skewed due to the specific tax breaks we have. But for me, in the market for a Taycan, the choice between a used and a new car has become very difficult - obvs only in my head.

Consider a heavily loaded Turbo, 18 months old, low mileage, available for £100k (list £149k) vs a £127k new GTS spec'd as I want it.

There is also a glut of cancelled orders in the market. New cars are available for Nov delivery as they're already in the build queue with a lock date sometime in Sept. This also explains the 150+ new cars on lots in black/grey colours with pretty standard options.

I'd echo it's a buyers market but expect and plan for standard depreciation. For what it's worth I'm likely to view this as a longer term car and run it through the depreciation curve, with extended warranty and just enjoy it.
If you're buying through a company in the UK, the more normal depreciation that we are now seeing might actually favour a new/ex-demo car. You can offset it all against Corp tax now, and when you come to sell with a significantly lower value, only pay Corp tax on the residual.

If not buying through a company, buying new is a good way to flush money away. There are very well spec'd GTSes sitting unsold for months at sub-100k right now.

The falling knife analogy is where I am currently....would like one. But not desperate to buy... Will keep watching for a bit :)

Depreciation over the next couple of years will depend, largely, on what Porsche do with the face lift, what govt does with tax breaks and how reliability holds up.
 

gramorris

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If you're buying through a company in the UK, the more normal depreciation that we are now seeing might actually favour a new/ex-demo car. You can offset it all against Corp tax now, and when you come to sell with a significantly lower value, only pay Corp tax on the residual.

If not buying through a company, buying new is a good way to flush money away. There are very well spec'd GTSes sitting unsold for months at sub-100k right now.

The falling knife analogy is where I am currently....would like one. But not desperate to buy... Will keep watching for a bit :)

Depreciation over the next couple of years will depend, largely, on what Porsche do with the face lift, what govt does with tax breaks and how reliability holds up.
yeah, I'm buying through a company. I don't need the 100% corp tax offset for new so I'm considering used too and offset for corp tax over the lifetime. There is a caveat that should corp tax get lower in the next parliament offsetting 100% now would be beneficial. More things to think about - as if the Porsche option list wasn't enough!
 

Jonathan S.

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My take:

Buying a Porsche is never a "good" financial decision.
But that's not why we do it.

We do it to bring joy to our lives.
I’ll have to practice reciting this in anticipation of the reaction from my wife and our daughter on Labor Day when my used 4CT is delivered.
 

noev

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I bought a CPO Taycan Turbo 3 months ago. $171K MSRP for $103K. Car looks and drives brand new. While it’s impossible to predict where depreciation will go, I personally feel like I’ve jumped on the curve at the right time. I could have easily afforded to buy a new one (and almost did) but couldn’t pass up this deal. I don’t expect more than 25% depreciation over the next 3 years, but even if it’s more than that…it’s on a relatively reasonable base number and the net annual cost is damn cheap to be driving a car if this caliber.

In my case, the Porsche dealer I’d purchased from ordered this car for their showroom, sold it to a regular client, and then bought it back from them as part of a trade. They bought the car in September ‘22 at a value of $130K and the car just sat and sat through the accelerating depreciation curve we’ve all been seeing for the last 9-10 months on these cars. At some point, they had to just turn metal and sell.

This may not directly answer your question but gives you a sense of my experience. I think anyone buying pre owned now is taking advantage of a great opportunity. It may not be a fleeting opportunity, but at least a rational one with present data.
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