Taycan production slowdown

[D00notD00d]

You have some of this arse about face ?

Eg it has ALWAYS been 2035. It became 2030 at the stroke of a pen because Johnson was being a Johnson. 2035 has not changed.

Porsche are not a small volume manufacturer. Is there anything stating they will be treated differently? (Or even Ferrari for that matter)?

Charging at home is a red herring. Nobody has a petrol pump at home either (although with some of the cars I've owned, it would have been handy).

Most people could readily use public charging right now. Those that can't can buy a ICE car as a 2034 Christmas present and run it until 2055 if they want.

Passenger cars are viable now. It will improve exponentially in the next 11yrs.

Porsche are lobbying for fuels, but I think they're pissing in the wind. ICE may still happen for other markets, but it is on firm notice where the EU is concerned, and we are such dedicated followers of fashion, the UK too.

Switzerland doesn’t manufacture vehicles but likely gets most new cars sold there from EU manufacturers. The UK also gets the majority of new vehicles from the EU and almost all of UK vehicle exports go to the EU. Both Switzerland and the UK are tails on the EU dog. Implicitly, and inextricably, the UK can only follow EU legislation, even though some think we have exited the EU.

For the UK, EVs (cars and vans) are not currently and are some way off being a universally practical solution to 100% replace the 3m new cars & vans sold annually. Even the 2030 80% target isn’t viable. That will inevitable dawn on the UK government. The UK government and vehicle manufacturers (Tesla exceptEd) have mostly made charging network installation someone else’s problem but has legislated that vehicle manufacturers will be fined if 80% of their new vehicles sold in 2030 are not pure BEVs. The UK National Grid is in private hands, capacity, the investment required and Planning Permission are all obstacles. Fines upon vehicle manufacturers/importers may become unenforceable if their dependencies upon other UK entities are not met. Or manufacturers may choose to exit the UK to avoid fines.

For the UK, the current significant advantage of charging at home (overnight) is that the unit cost is 10% of the public cost. The public charging cost is roughly equivalent to fuelling an ICE Car. That imbalance is unlikely to continue.
Unless someone else is paying (perhaps a company vehicle) the reduced fuel cost is the only available offset to the increased price of EVs and their worse residuals - which will worsen further with the decreased range that results from battery degradation. There‘s a whole set of maintenance requirements that are currently being deferred for another day.
10m UK households (40%) can’t charge at home and could only use public chargers. The cost of correcting that makes it non-viable. For the reasons above there currently isn’t enough reliable public charging capacity available everywhere.
i can’t comment on preparedness in the EU or Switzerland, but I’d put money on the UK legislation having to be relaxed. EU manufacturers may have to cut their UK bound manufacturing unless the UK pure BEV demand increases.

This is all wide of the original subject of this thread, but the Taycan specific context is bound up in the wider transition to pure BEVs.

Governments can’t tell private grid and electricity providers or planning authorities what to do or consumers what to buy. Vehicle manufacturers are just one element of the supply chain. This transition isn‘t even half baked. And on motivation, the UK only contributes 1% to global carbon emissions, having switched to a service rather than manufacturing based economy in the last 40 years. Only 8% of the UK workforce is employed in manufacturing.

The election of right wing/populist governments would impact all of this. As would reelection of Trump.

It takes myopic dogma driven politicians to royally eff up like this.

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[snstevens]

This is all wide of the original subject of this thread, but the Taycan specific context is bound up in the wider transition to pure BEVs.

I think it’s actually pretty simple. If Porsche builds cars that are high-performance, fun to drive, and priced in the range that they traditionally priced their vehicles, they will continue to be successful.

One advantage of selling to the premium end of the market is that the competition is about style, performance, and quality of the driving experience.

Does Porsche have to improve their software? Of course they do.

Does Porsche have to improve their reliability and the EV service experience? Of course they do.

Does Porsche have to improve their range? Of course they do.

Does Porsche have to have an electrified Cayenne, 911, and 718? Of course they do.

And they will, in spite of what at times will seem an uneven journey to those goals.

 

[cityhpper]

Of course if in "energy" one includes petrol, then yes any country in Europe is importing energy.

Hmm well, hold my beer...

 

[Sly_North]

Hmm well, hold my beer...

Well yes that's also a source of energy, and yes that's produced locally. But sure, thanks for the free beer!
(and sure Norway exports, but also imports beer petrol)

 

[Murph7355]

....
Governments can’t tell private grid and electricity providers or planning authorities what to do or consumers what to buy. Vehicle manufacturers are just one element of the supply chain. This transition isn‘t even half baked. And on motivation, the UK only contributes 1% to global carbon emissions, having switched to a service rather than manufacturing based economy in the last 40 years. Only 8% of the UK workforce is employed in manufacturing.

The election of right wing/populist governments would impact all of this. As would reelection of Trump.

It takes myopic dogma driven politicians to royally eff up like this.

Govts might not be able to explicitly and absolutely tell, but they have plenty of levers to pull to "coerce"...all the way up to banning something considered undesirable.

(I also have views on whether things like the grid and supply capacity should be as private industry focused as they are...but that's definitely off topic).

I'm not convinced many of the arguments used to dispel the likelihood of hitting targets are that sound any more. Average trip distance in the UK is around 30 miles per day. The public charging networks is already improving daily. Even those who do not have access at home will be able manage in a broadly similar way to they do with ICE. And as noted, we still have 11yrs to go PLUS that does not mean that ICE disappears over night.

We'll see. I wouldn't bet against governments here or in the EU turning tail. But if we think manufacturers were irritated by a move from 2035 to 2030 and back again, something even bigger (moving the original 2035 target) would really cause ulcers.

 

[Uknown]

As somebody pointed out earlier, I never had a petrol pump at home! But I have to admit it is a great convenience to be able to charge at home, but not absolutely necessary. That is a little bit of a made up excuse in my mind.

Where I live in France, I counted to more than 120 HPC chargers within a 50 kilometre driving range about 2 months ago. Total, Ionity, Allego, Carrefour, Lidl, Tesla open for all, plus a few more less known brands. And with HPC I mean > 200 kW power. So no problem here. And only the other day I found another place with 14 chargers just around the corner from a supermarket we often go to.

And driving from Monaco to Calais I noted that there are chargers at less than 50 kilometers apart. So long distance travel is also no problem.

The U.K. has been lagging in the build of charging stations, but seem to be improving now.

I am positive my charging costs at home are cheaper than if 3rd party charged me to charge at their location. The charging rates are IMO highway robbery if you aren’t getting the free time Porsche offers with say EA

 

[WuffvonTrips]

In the UK, the fall in new car sales isn't EV-specific, never mind Taycan-specific- this article (from the Torygraph which is usually representative of the right-wing media crusade against EV's)...it cites loss of models at the cheaper end of the new car scale as regulations push up the minimum levels of size, weight, complexity, manufacturing costs, so repair and insurance costs go up. Worsening economic climate and increased interest rates mean that people who normally buy new cars on finance are taking longer repayment terms, so replacing their cars less frequently (typical terms up from 3 years to 4)-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/why-drivers-are-no-longer-buying-new-cars/

 

[Murph7355]

I am positive my charging costs at home are cheaper than if 3rd party charged me to charge at their location. The charging rates are IMO highway robbery if you aren’t getting the free time Porsche offers with say EA

It 100% does.

Here in the UK the networks seem to be pegging prices to petrol equivalent, which is a rip off.

However, we need to get used to it. Govt here will wake up to how much tax revenue they lose when petrol sales wane. At that point, all charging whether home or away will get nailed with additional tax.

Personal transport is expensive. Always had been, always will be.

 

[Scandinavian]

Governments can’t tell private grid and electricity providers or planning authorities what to do or consumers what to buy. Vehicle manufacturers are just one element of the supply chain.

Well there are a few tools in the toolbox for governments, if they decide electrification is the right direction. Some are more sophisticated than others but the push in the EV direction.

Norway is one example where the tax on ICE cars were enormous. That was scrapped for EV’s

I think Denmark also has favourable tax incentives on EV’s

I am sure there are other countries doing similar “”incentives””

France levy some hefty tax on both the purchase of an ICE car (up to 60,000 Euro) as well as extra tax on registrations. EV’s benefit at 0 % tax.

At the moment the U.K. lay the onus on the car manufacturers, but that may change?

 

[W1NGE]

Well there are a few tools in the toolbox for governments, if they decide electrification is the right direction. Some are more sophisticated than others but the push in the EV direction.

Norway is one example where the tax on ICE cars were enormous. That was scrapped for EV’s

I think Denmark also has favourable tax incentives on EV’s

I am sure there are other countries doing similar “”incentives””

France levy some hefty tax on both the purchase of an ICE car (up to 60,000 Euro) as well as extra tax on registrations. EV’s benefit at 0 % tax.

At the moment the U.K. lay the onus on the car manufacturers, but that may change?

Little or no incentive in UK and none on the premium end of the EV market. EV Road tax also coming next year which is another negative.

 

[feye]

On the basis that ICEs generally have a lot more range then the consideration of a gas pump at home never really became / becomes relevant.

Really?

My Audi A7, 75l tank range 495 km (innercity), 605 km (highway 120 km/h)
My Zeekr 001, 140kWh range 900 km (innercity), 750 km (highway 120 km/h)

 

[W1NGE]

Really?

My Audi A7, 75l tank range 495 km (innercity), 605 km (highway 120 km/h)
My Zeekr 001, 140kWh range 900 km (innercity), 750 km (highway 120 km/h)

Irrelevant comparison to be honest - apples and apples only and not apples and pears.

No Zeekers in UK, price prohibitive for the average person, etc.

 

[feye]

As somebody pointed out earlier, I never had a petrol pump at home! But I have to admit it is a great convenience to be able to charge at home, but not absolutely necessary. That is a little bit of a made up excuse in my mind.

Where I live in France, I counted to more than 120 HPC chargers within a 50 kilometre driving range about 2 months ago. Total, Ionity, Allego, Carrefour, Lidl, Tesla open for all, plus a few more less known brands. And with HPC I mean > 200 kW power. So no problem here. And only the other day I found another place with 14 chargers just around the corner from a supermarket we often go to.

And driving from Monaco to Calais I noted that there are chargers at less than 50 kilometers apart. So long distance travel is also no problem.

The U.K. has been lagging in the build of charging stations, but seem to be improving now.

This is great to hear! I remember a few years ago, how you complained about your trips to Calais...

My experience here in Munich, too. Yesterday I saw advertising behind a large DIY market, HPC for just 49 cent/kWh. Aldi offers 43 cent/kWh. Is there any excuse left, since it is much more pleasant to charge while shopping, than chasing a stinking gas station?

 

[feye]

Irrelevant comparison to be honest - apples and apples only and not apples and pears.

No Zeekers in UK, price prohibitive for the average person, etc.

True, but my Zeekr is a real car, so the tech is here.
Zeekr 001 has 200 KW engine, Audi A7 had 220 KW.
Zeekr 001 cost 52k Euro, Audi A7 did cost 90k Euro (imported into China)
Zeekr is bigger than my Audi A7, and the interior feels more premium.

Very similar in many ways. What else you want it to compare to?

 

[feye]

Try living in a tenement block in Glasgow / Edinburgh with no on street parking - where would you charge your car. There are countless examples across the British Isles were no convenient infrastructure exists to influence mass migration to an EV (that's the basic issue).

That will change quicker than you think.

There will never be 100% ICE ban (ever) - do you see any Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, etc prototypes or offerings, no I didn't think so. Porsche has already stated that they will continue to make and develop ICE GT cars - GT4, GT3 and so on - well past any current EU embargo date as the rules permit it.

They are dreaming. Even Ethiopia has already a total ICE import ban.

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