Price of Oil and EV Demand (ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS)

[Rbwalters]

Price of oil is likely to jump start EV demand, even in the US. Just look at this screen shot from this evening’s (May 8) news:

Notice anything?

Sponsored

 

[Flying ace]

Finally my Taycan will be worth more than a pack of gum and a bus pass

 

[Jasper4S]

Starting in 2027, the Netherlands will introduce an extra tax on company-owned petrol, diesel, and hybrid cars. Businesses will have to pay an additional yearly tax equal to 12% of the car’s original list price for vehicles with emissions that are also used privately. That suddenly makes new ICE cars far less attractive financially. I honestly think the real EV boom in the Netherlands will start next year because almost no company will still want to buy new petrol or diesel cars after that. No idea what this will do to the used car market though.

 

[Tooney]

New extra taxes, mmmm.

 

[d_ziring]

And at one time, our president seemed to want to discourage EV adoption. Inadvertently, his "adventure" has only stimulated interest in EV sales.

 

[Crazymind]

Wait for it. In few weeks he will release the truth about the War: it was created to switch to electric vehicles.

 

[69Mach390]

Price of oil is likely to jump start EV demand, even in the US. Just look at this screen shot from this evening’s (May 8) news:

Notice anything?

No, especially since this will be very temporary.

The oil is there, we just can’t get it until they open the strait. As soon as they do, the oil prices will plummet due to the increased supply.

Oil is significantly cheaper for the long run due to fracking. Unless governments artificially inflate prices with taxes, this won’t last.

 

[SergeyIndy]

@69Mach390, I happen to work for a US refinery and the people whose job is to worry about it telling me some different things. As a result, I just did educational sessions at my son's high school if they need to start considering EVs if these high prices are here to stay for a long time.

Give you an example, we buy crude around the world and refine it in the US and sell 4k+ products back to the world but mostly gasoline, jet, rocket fuel for the US. One of the refineries in the P Gulf was bombed and out of service for a year minimum, now we have to find another source that everyone will be competing for that most certainly will drive the prices higher and they will stay there until these refineries have been rebuilt which takes a long time.

I also asked, any impact on states like California that get most of their crude and refined products not from inside the US. He simply said, California is totally screwed, and I quote. So, hang on to your EVs in California folks. I also asked about Australia, and he said they are completely screwed, so hang on to your EVs there as well.

However, our local community is impacted already in a major way since small businesses and non-profits that do a lot of driving, think flower delivery for Mother's day will have much less business or profit today as they are doing their deliveries as I write this and non-profit food delivery to people who cannot afford food totally shut down as they cannot afford to make 300 mile daily rounds. We are on a low side of the gas prices as our governor is not charging state tax for the next 30 days.

 

[FlyingPoint]

Finally my Taycan will be worth more than a pack of gum and a bus pass

 

[Fish Fingers]

@69Mach390, I happen to work for a US refinery and the people whose job is to worry about it telling me some different things. As a result, I just did educational sessions at my son's high school if they need to start considering EVs if these high prices are here to stay for a long time.

Give you an example, we buy crude around the world and refine it in the US and sell 4k+ products back to the world but mostly gasoline, jet, rocket fuel for the US. One of the refineries in the P Gulf was bombed and out of service for a year minimum, now we have to find another source that everyone will be competing for that most certainly will drive the prices higher and they will stay there until these refineries have been rebuilt which takes a long time.

I also asked, any impact on states like California that gets most of their crude and refined products not from inside the US. He simply said, California is totally screwed, and I quote. So hang on to your EVs in California folks. I also asked about Australia, and he said they are completely screwed, so hang on to your EVs there as well.

However, our local community is impacted already in a major way since small businesses and non-profits that do a lot of driving, think flower delivery for Mother's day will have much less business as usual and food delivery to people who cannot afford food totally shut down as they cannot afford to make 300 mile rounds a day to do so.

I agree.

I work a lot with ESG clean energy fund managers and its the same story.
This is likely 'the' major pivot moment globally.

People are not happy with the volatility of oil prices and are now actively looking at the alternatives.

 

[WarpSpeedEV]

Starting in 2027, the Netherlands will introduce an extra tax on company-owned petrol, diesel, and hybrid cars. Businesses will have to pay an additional yearly tax equal to 12% of the car’s original list price for vehicles with emissions that are also used privately. That suddenly makes new ICE cars far less attractive financially. I honestly think the real EV boom in the Netherlands will start next year because almost no company will still want to buy new petrol or diesel cars after that. No idea what this will do to the used car market though.

Interesting situation in NL…isn’t there a ban on new data centers there due to power capacity constraints? Curious how the infrastructure will handle a surge in EVs next year.

 

[69Mach390]

@69Mach390, I happen to work for a US refinery and the people whose job is to worry about it telling me some different things. As a result, I just did educational sessions at my son's high school if they need to start considering EVs if these high prices are here to stay for a long time.

Give you an example, we buy crude around the world and refine it in the US and sell 4k+ products back to the world but mostly gasoline, jet, rocket fuel for the US. One of the refineries in the P Gulf was bombed and out of service for a year minimum, now we have to find another source that everyone will be competing for that most certainly will drive the prices higher and they will stay there until these refineries have been rebuilt which takes a long time.

I also asked, any impact on states like California that gets most of their crude and refined products not from inside the US. He simply said, California is totally screwed, and I quote. So hang on to your EVs in California folks. I also asked about Australia, and he said they are completely screwed, so hang on to your EVs there as well.

However, our local community is impacted already in a major way since small businesses and non-profits that do a lot of driving, think flower delivery for Mother's day will have much less business or profit today as the doing deliveries and non-profit food delivery to people who cannot afford food totally shut down as they cannot afford to make 300 mile daily rounds to do so. We are on a low side of the gas prices as our governor is not charging state tax for the next 30 days.

Definitely some interesting insight. We shall see how it plays out. We both hope that your person is wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time people who are very close to things assume the worst is happening, especially when it affects them directly.

Fun fact for the US- 60% of our oil imports come from Canada. Yes it’s a global market for oil and obviously this conflict is affecting things. But if the duration isn’t that long and no more major damage, things can level out almost as quickly as they went crazy.

I’m generally optimistic about these things. Stuff just rarely seems to get as bad as it seems like it could when things first go bad.

But I’ve been way wrong at least twice in the last 20 years (great recession and Covid both lasted way longer than I predicted).

 

[Dabz]

What's interesting to me is that for the first time I've had numerous people comment "I bet you haven't actually noticed any difference in motoring costs since the war" and "you're laughing with cheap motoring". Previously the only cost related comments I'd ever had were "isn't it more expensive to run an EV" and "I heard it's 85p/kWh"

 

[Fish Fingers]

What's interesting to me is that for the first time I've had numerous people comment "I bet you haven't actually noticed any difference in motoring costs since the war" and "you're laughing with cheap motoring". Previously the only cost related comments I'd ever had were "isn't it more expensive to run an EV" and "I heard it's 85p/kWh"

I've had someone (diesel/anti EV) say similar through gritted teeth.

 

[69Mach390]

What's interesting to me is that for the first time I've had numerous people comment "I bet you haven't actually noticed any difference in motoring costs since the war" and "you're laughing with cheap motoring". Previously the only cost related comments I'd ever had were "isn't it more expensive to run an EV" and "I heard it's 85p/kWh"

I don’t really monitor it, but I’m curious if DC charging costs and normal electricity rates have increased since the war.

Sponsored