Taycan production slowdown

[Murph7355]

Nope!

Porsche, Ferrari, et all will all be making ICE (EU rules permit for low volume niche vehicles beyond the "deadline") and besides EV infrastructure is (and won't) not where it needs to be - how will folk who can't charge at home (or in the street) be expected / coerced into EV only without civil disorder!? It ain't gonna happen any time soon - hybrids will inevitably become the compromise and governments will concede defeat. These exact same issues prevailed many years ago and still no sign of a timely solution or indeed resolution.

2030 became 2035 at the stroke of a pen in UK (motor industry wasn't best pleased nor were we who jumped ship and got burned) with the last bunch of incompetent Ministers in UK. I expect the new lot to be going back to 2030 as the headline target knowing full well that it isn't a practical proposition for all.

Take a look around - the transition from oil & gas to renewables in the timeframe quoted is fundamentally flawed (nor realistic). There simply isn't enough manufacturing capacity to meet and therefore supply the renewable technologies needed. The majors are backing off from major investment due to this and the economic model around it (fixed price return) and (in UK) neanderthal planning processes.

Oil remains king and will do so for decades to come - US is now (and quietly) the largest producer in the world which isn't going to suddenly change direction. This presents a powerful lobby.

You have some of this arse about face ?

Eg it has ALWAYS been 2035. It became 2030 at the stroke of a pen because Johnson was being a Johnson. 2035 has not changed.

Porsche are not a small volume manufacturer. Is there anything stating they will be treated differently? (Or even Ferrari for that matter)?

Charging at home is a red herring. Nobody has a petrol pump at home either (although with some of the cars I've owned, it would have been handy).

Most people could readily use public charging right now. Those that can't can buy a ICE car as a 2034 Christmas present and run it until 2055 if they want.

Passenger cars are viable now. It will improve exponentially in the next 11yrs.

Porsche are lobbying for fuels, but I think they're pissing in the wind. ICE may still happen for other markets, but it is on firm notice where the EU is concerned, and we are such dedicated followers of fashion, the UK too.

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[Scandinavian]

Electricty prices in eu/uk are at an all time high. I don't think they can go higher...

I think it was in france where they announced 1 or 2 months ago that they produce enegry in excess (due to nuclear plants), more than they can use or store, and it's a burden on their infrastructure. That's got to push prices down in france.
Other countries might follow, if they realise that demolishing nuclear plants during an energy crisis is not a big brain move.

I have not seen or heard about any reduction of energy prices in France so far. The French government did regulate the pricing over the last two years and we never saw the hike as experienced in the U.K.

As a comparison we had negative energy prices in Sweden over the week end. Got paid to charge the car at home. Network costs and distribution charges still occurred though so it never was a total minus cost

 

[Jasper4S]

We are way of topic. Taycan production is slower than couple of months ago. Makes sense right? Less buyers, Macan EV coming. Lots of unsold 2024 models.

It has nothing to do with chinese EV’s etc. Else the headline would be different; Layoffs at Porsche after dramatic sales

 

[Scandinavian]

and besides EV infrastructure is (and won't) not where it needs to be - how will folk who can't charge at home (or in the street) be expected / coerced into EV only without civil disorder!? It ain't gonna happen any time soon

As somebody pointed out earlier, I never had a petrol pump at home! But I have to admit it is a great convenience to be able to charge at home, but not absolutely necessary. That is a little bit of a made up excuse in my mind.

Where I live in France, I counted to more than 120 HPC chargers within a 50 kilometre driving range about 2 months ago. Total, Ionity, Allego, Carrefour, Lidl, Tesla open for all, plus a few more less known brands. And with HPC I mean > 200 kW power. So no problem here. And only the other day I found another place with 14 chargers just around the corner from a supermarket we often go to.

And driving from Monaco to Calais I noted that there are chargers at less than 50 kilometers apart. So long distance travel is also no problem.

The U.K. has been lagging in the build of charging stations, but seem to be improving now.

 

[W1NGE]

Which folk are exactly charging their ICE vehicles at home?

These sound like made up problems to me. I have not once driven though europe (and i drive regularly 500-3000km trips), and had a charging place be full. Not once.

Most people don't buy new cars, and most people won't be forced into buying said new EVs. Most will buy 2nd, 3rd or 4th hand ICE vehicles; and that will have 0 impact on the ban of NEW ICE cars.

People that actually need to charge at home, will find solutions. People that don't will use the ever growing public infrastructure.

EU has madated minium 150kw electric chargers every 60km on every EUROPEAN road, with european funds, by 2030. In switzerland, today, that is achived already.

EDIT: thing like this also regulate themselves. If people think they won't be able to charge, they will buy 2nd hand ICE cars, as they have for decades. It will have 0 effect on NEW ICE cars sales being banned, 0 effect.
EU plans to ban sales of NEW ICE cars by 2030/2035; with the hope that by 2050/2060 all cars on road will be EV. The ban of ICE by no means that in 2035 they expect all cars on road to be EV, as it will never happen, sells of 2nd hand of cars will continue to exist.

Not sure what you meant by charging an ICE at home - that would be nuts, however PHEVs are, ergo ICE continues for the masses in some shape or form.

EV only - try living in a tenement block in Glasgow / Edinburgh with on street parking only - where would you charge your car. There are countless examples across the British Isles were no convenient infrastructure exists to influence mass migration to an EV (that's the basic issue).

On the road and around major conurbation is a different thing entirely, but go slightly of grid (and I mean slightly) and you'll see a different picture - no argument from me but not as plentiful in our region as you might have become accustomed to.

UK is not part of EU - remember Brexit? Ergo, EU rules aren't enforceable!

There will never be 100% ICE ban (ever) - do you see any Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, etc prototypes or offerings, no I didn't think so. Porsche has already stated that they will continue to make and develop ICE GT cars - GT4, GT3 and so on - well past any current EU embargo date as the rules permit it.

 

[Scandinavian]

Interesting. I could imagine, that we have a massive price war coming in the next 10 years. The batteries getting cheaper, and the cars are cheaper to make than ICEs.

Any prediction, when we will see the first BEV model cheaper than the equivialent ICE model?

If you mean in production costs, then it might be years away if ever? You are comparing an industry that has been honed for 100 years to one that is maybe 10 years old?

As a buyer of a car in France by retail prices, this as already the fact!. EV is cheaper than an ice car of similar performance. This is due to the government introducing a 60 k Euro malus tax on high performance ICE cars. A BMW i5 M60 will be cheaper than an M5. And I do not think BMW even sell a X5 with a large petrol engine any longer in France?

As an example the base 911 without any options is 25 k euro more expensive than a base Taycan!!

And yet with great infrastructure and charging and lower running costs, they still do not sell many Taycans!

 

[W1NGE]

As somebody pointed out earlier, I never had a petrol pump at home! But I have to admit it is a great convenience to be able to charge at home, but not absolutely necessary. That is a little bit of a made up excuse in my mind.

Where I live in France, I counted to more than 120 HPC chargers within a 50 kilometre driving range about 2 months ago. Total, Ionity, Allego, Carrefour, Lidl, Tesla open for all, plus a few more less known brands. And with HPC I mean > 200 kW power. So no problem here. And only the other day I found another place with 14 chargers just around the corner from a supermarket we often go to.

And driving from Monaco to Calais I noted that there are chargers at less than 50 kilometers apart. So long distance travel is also no problem.

The U.K. has been lagging in the build of charging stations, but seem to be improving now.

On the basis that ICEs generally have a lot more range then the consideration of a gas pump at home never really became / becomes relevant.

UK / Ireland are followers rather than leaders. Great strides continue to be made but in the time that remains the embargo date will simply be pushed to the right. On street charging via lamp posts sounds like a reasonable idea (Shell) but not seen any yet and of limited use - not everyone has access to a lamp post I assume.

My 'argument' if you will is not about my own situation as I don't have issues charging of which 99% is at home but have plentiful public infrastructure to tap in to should I need it. Rather, for less fortunate folk who live in cities where the current provision is at best woeful and where it exists is slow speed in most cases - it will take literally decades (and huge investment) to make a step change for this type of scenario.

 

[W1NGE]

You have some of this arse about face ?

Eg it has ALWAYS been 2035. It became 2030 at the stroke of a pen because Johnson was being a Johnson. 2035 has not changed.

Porsche are not a small volume manufacturer. Is there anything stating they will be treated differently? (Or even Ferrari for that matter)?

Charging at home is a red herring. Nobody has a petrol pump at home either (although with some of the cars I've owned, it would have been handy).

Most people could readily use public charging right now. Those that can't can buy a ICE car as a 2034 Christmas present and run it until 2055 if they want.

Passenger cars are viable now. It will improve exponentially in the next 11yrs.

Porsche are lobbying for fuels, but I think they're pissing in the wind. ICE may still happen for other markets, but it is on firm notice where the EU is concerned, and we are such dedicated followers of fashion, the UK too.

Ha ha - indeed, I'm dyslexic what can I say - I swore I typed it the other way around but happy that you pointed it out!

https://uk.motor1.com/news/706319/porsche-thinks-combustion-ban-delayed/
https://www.motor1.com/news/658580/eu-allow-sales-of-e-fuel-ice-cars-after-2035/

- other sources if you search. For others, EU rules / "influencing" by well-healed auto manufacturers go hand-in-hand and therefore inconceivable to imagine a total ban of anything new and certainly not in my lifetime.

 

[W1NGE]

Which folk are exactly charging their ICE vehicles at home?

These sound like made up problems to me. I have not once driven though europe (and i drive regularly 500-3000km trips), and had a charging place be full. Not once.

Most people don't buy new cars, and most people won't be forced into buying said new EVs. Most will buy 2nd, 3rd or 4th hand ICE vehicles; and that will have 0 impact on the ban of NEW ICE cars.

People that actually need to charge at home, will find solutions. People that don't will use the ever growing public infrastructure.

EU has madated minium 150kw electric chargers every 60km on every EUROPEAN road, with european funds, by 2030. In switzerland, today, that is achived already.

EDIT: thing like this also regulate themselves. If people think they won't be able to charge, they will buy 2nd hand ICE cars, as they have for decades. It will have 0 effect on NEW ICE cars sales being banned, 0 effect.
EU plans to ban sales of NEW ICE cars by 2030/2035; with the hope that by 2050/2060 all cars on road will be EV. The ban of ICE by no means that in 2035 they expect all cars on road to be EV, as it will never happen, sells of 2nd hand of cars will continue to exist.

Try living in a tenement block in Glasgow / Edinburgh with no on street parking - where would you charge your car. There are countless examples across the British Isles were no convenient infrastructure exists to influence mass migration to an EV (that's the basic issue).

On the road and around major conurbation is a different thing entirely, but go slightly off grid (and I mean slightly) and you'll see a different picture - no argument from me but not as plentiful in our region as you might have become accustomed to.

UK is not part of EU - remember Brexit? Ergo, EU rules aren't enforceable!

There will never be 100% ICE ban (ever) - do you see any Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, etc prototypes or offerings, no I didn't think so. Porsche has already stated that they will continue to make and develop ICE GT cars - GT4, GT3 and so on - well past any current EU embargo date as the rules permit it.

 

[chun]

Try living in a tenement block in Glasgow / Edinburgh with no on street parking - where would you charge your car. There are countless examples across the British Isles were no convenient infrastructure exists to influence mass migration to an EV (that's the basic issue).

On the road and around major conurbation is a different thing entirely, but go slightly off grid (and I mean slightly) and you'll see a different picture - no argument from me but not as plentiful in our region as you might have become accustomed to.

UK is not part of EU - remember Brexit? Ergo, EU rules aren't enforceable!

There will never be 100% ICE ban (ever) - do you see any Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, etc prototypes or offerings, no I didn't think so. Porsche has already stated that they will continue to make and develop ICE GT cars - GT4, GT3 and so on - well past any current EU embargo date as the rules permit it.

But the world is not only UK, and last I checked most car manufacturers are not in UK.

Most people won't need to charge at home. Just like they don't need to put fuel in at home.

Most people don't need 900km of range in a car with 1100 horse power. The 911 doesn't go beyond 500km range on a full tank either. Or are we not comparing spec for spec?

UK will follow the rest of the world. And the rest of the world (china, EU, NA) is going electric.

Again, the car ban on NEW ICE cars will remain in place. Porsche and others fighting against it may find small victories (like porsche's experiment with 0 poluting fuel for ICE cars), but most won't bother.
And the ban on NEW ICE cars will not result in 0 sells of ICE cars, indeed, majority of cars sold will still be ice cars. But they won't be brand new from the production line.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39798418/aston-martin-electric-lineup-reveal-first-ev-2025/

https://www.tomsguide.com/news/lamborghini-is-going-electric-heres-what-to-expect

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/el...ris-first-fully-electric-supercar-arrive-2025

Everyone is going electric. EVERYONE.

If they don't have electric cars out now, doesn't mean they won't in 11 years. They still have 11 years. For chinese companies 11 years it enaugh to lunch 20-30 models of electric cars. I am sure Ferrari can manage 1...

And all of these companies offer HPEV right now...

Porsche is going to have to fight to remain relevant in the car market, and that's with high technology electric cars.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Porsche is going to have to fight to remain relevant in the car market, and that's with high technology electric cars.

I remember this line of thinking 40 years ago when Japan was going to rule the car world.

 

[Murph7355]

Last I heard France were importing energy as there were issues with their nuclear.

Sure, but a cayenne is 100.000+; a macan EV is 100.000+.
And a Rivian, a much superior car, is cheaper. What will people buy? It's hard to compete at the high end of prices when your cars are 5-6 years behind.

And that competiton will only get worse. So what will they do? Increase prices for shit cars, while other brands lower prices for better cars? I doubt the badge alone will sell so well. Remains to be seen.

It's either lower prices or better cars than competition, and the macan EV is not better than the competition. I have driven it, interior is very nice, drives well. But you have cars like Rivian, that drive better, offer better technology, and can do much more, at a lower price. What will the typical american choose?

Base Cayenne versus an upper end Macan? And some people simply won't want the bigger car.

When an EV Cayenne comes out, it won't be Macan money.

As for the Rivian...sure. A Dacia Duster is less still, and a "better car"...depending on how one defines "better".

I totally agree that Porsche need to up their game.

The badge does, however, carry some weight. As soon as those competitors genuinely compete in ride and handling, the badge will count for nothing. That's not happening quite yet, but the issues Porsche has to fix won't take them 5mins to fix either.

The "typical" American might well buy Rivian. Will enough go with the perceived premium German car though?

They will for now. But Porsche cannot afford the sort of issues they have had with the Taycan again.

IMO.

 

[Murph7355]

I remember this line of thinking 40 years ago when Japan was going to rule the car world.

Porsche did pull its finger out, to a degree, though. And Japan did rule the volume world for a while.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Porsche did pull its finger out, to a degree, though. And Japan did rule the volume world for a while.

Budweiser used to be the best selling beer. McDonald’s sells the most beef. .

 

[Sly_North]

Last I heard France were importing energy as there were issues with their nuclear.

Hmm nop! There was one winter after COVID19, where they had to do maintenance on about 1/4th to 1/3rd of their nuclear plants at the same time - because of the maintenance due and delayed during the 2 years of Covid19.

IIRC, that lasted from ~ September 2022 to ~ January 2023. Despite that, in 2022 France was still the 2nd electricity exporter in Europe, behind Sweden.

And in 2023 they got back to the first place :

According to a new report by the European energy analysis firm Montel EnAppSys, France was “comfortably” the biggest net exporter of energy in Europe throughout 2023, with its export totals being 48.7 TWh more than its import totals. In second place in Europe was Sweden, with 28.6 TWh more in exports than imports.
Export success: Nuclear power has played a key role in France’s achieving net export of electricity, as noted by Montel EnAppSys senior analyst Clément Bouilloux.

And that's true the rest of the time of course.

Of course if in "energy" one includes petrol, then yes any country in Europe is importing energy.

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